Clay's 2019 NFL projections and unit grades: The best and worst teams at everything
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Week 1 of the 2019 NFL season is just around the corner. What better way to raise (or temper) expectations than with a complete breakdown of predictions and projections?
Below is a guide of what to expect once the season kicks off Thursday -- from power rankings, to teams that will score the most points and defenses that will allow the least, to the best and worst positional units in the league, to the toughest and easiest schedules -- as well as predictions for the playoffs and, of course, Super Bowl LIV. My in-depth projection guides for each team can be found in PDF form here.
The Patriots have played in the AFC Championship each of the past eight seasons, and Tom Brady is the primary reason why. Many have come and gone as threats for the top spot, but none has been able to sustain elite production the way Brady has over the years. Rookie Jarrett Stidham beat out veteran Brian Hoyer for the backup gig.
It's 2019, not 1989, so Saquon Barkley's outstanding pass-catching ability is a key reason why the Giants sit atop this list. The 2018 second-overall pick finished third or better at the position in rush attempts, rushing yards, pass routes, receptions, touches, scrimmage yards and total touchdowns as a rookie. Wayne Gallman and Paul Perkins add depth.
Coach Sean McVay loves the "11" personnel package, and it's easy to understand why. The trio of Brandin Cooks, Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp has been nearly unstoppable. Consider that during the seven full games they played together last season, all three were top 11 fantasy wide receivers. This isn't a fantasy ranking, but that production speaks for itself. Josh Reynolds has proved to be a solid fourth option.
Zach Ertz set the NFL single-season record for receptions by a tight end last season, and he's joined by 2018 draft pick Dallas Goedert who, by all accounts, appears to be a budding star.
Carolina signed Gerald McCoy during the offseason and, combined with Kawann Short, the team now has arguably the league's best duo at the position. Dontari Poe is a solid nose tackle and will get a ton of work between McCoy and Short in the team's new 3-4 front. Kyle Love and former first-round pick Vernon Butler are quality depth.
Calais Campbell may be about to turn 33 years old, but he's still one of the league's best players. Yannick Ngakoue is his running mate, with first-round pick Josh Allen set for a big role as the No. 3. Campbell and Ngakoue combined for 20.0 sacks last season.
Bobby Wagner is one of the league's best players and the main reason a Seattle defense with many holes stayed afloat in 2018. He'll be rejoined in the lineup by K.J. Wright, who was limited to 278 snaps by injuries last season. Mychal Kendricks is a good third option and youngsters Shaquem Griffin, Cody Bartonand Ben Burr-Kirven add upside on the bench.
Los Angeles sports one of the league's best one-two punches at the position in the form of stud shadow/perimeter corner Casey Hayward and third-year slot Desmond King. Trevor Williams and Michael Davis have flashed at times and will compete for the other perimeter job.
A gem find in the third round of the 2017 draft, John Johnson has emerged into one of the league's best safeties. Lamarcus Joyner is gone, but the team is arguably better off in the short term after signing 34-year-old Eric Weddle. Second-round pick Taylor Rapp adds some upside on the bench.
Joe Flacco will handle most -- if not all -- of the 2019 snaps for this team, after rookie Drew Lock was placed on IR. Flacco hasn't cleared 20 passing touchdowns in a season since 2014 and his 6.3 YPA over the past four seasons is worst in the league. Of Lock, coach Vic Fangio recently said, "He's not a quarterback yet."
Peyton Barber did very little (3.7 YPC, 3.3 YPT) with a lot (254 touches) last season, but is expected to lead this backfield again in 2019. A potential second-year leap from Ronald Jones is possible, but it's hard to expect much after he managed 77 yards on 30 touches in 2018.
Willie Snead, Chris Moore and Seth Roberts are this team's top veteran wide receiver options. First-round speedster Marquise Brown is still recovering from a foot injury, and fellow youngsters Miles Boykin and Jaleel Scott have combined to play zero NFL snaps.
Geoff Swaim, James O'Shaughnessyand Ben Koyack are career backups with a combined 105 career receptions, but this is the trio that will handle a majority of the team's tight end snaps this season. Third-round pick Josh Oliver could emerge once healthy.
Miami would've ranked here even before it traded Laremy Tunsil to Houston. With Tunsil, Josh Sitton, Ja'Wuan James and Ted Larsen gone, Julie'n Davenport, Daniel Kilgore, Jesse Davis, and rookies Michael Dieter and Deion Calhoun are probable starters for the rebuilding Dolphins. This line is going to take a while to repair. Shakiest defensive units by position
This one was tough because Dallas has some potentially solid players up front, but the fact is there are a lot of quality defensive tackles in the league right now. With David Irving gone, Dallas figures to lean heavily on versatile Tyrone Crawford in the interior. The likes of Antwaun Woods, Maliek Collins and Christian Covington are next up, with second-rounder Trysten Hill likely to play a substantial role.
Miami finished 29th in sacks (31) last season and hasn't finished better than 19th in the category since 2014. It's not inconceivable that the team's sack total could actually get worse this season after the offseason departures of Cameron Wake, Robert Quinn, William Hayes and Andre Branch. Atop the depth chart are Charles Harris, Nate Orchard and Jonathan Ledbetter. The three combined for one sack last season.
Alec Ogletree soaked up over 800 snaps last season but has struggled with effectiveness since his days with the Rams. B.J. Goodson, Tae Davis and fifth-round rookie Ryan Connelly are competing for significant snaps in the Giant's 3-4 base.
Shaquill Griffin and Tre Flowers return as the Seahawks' perimeter corners. Justin Coleman fled to Detroit, leaving the likes of Neiko Thorpe, Akeem King, Jamar Taylor and fourth-round pick Ugo Amadi to battle for slot and/or reserve duties. Thorpe played 30 snaps last season, and the other veteran corners allowed a QB rating over 100.0 last season.
The pressure is on 2018 third-round pick Ronnie Harrison to emerge as this team's No. 1 safety after the departures of 2018 starters Barry Church and Tashaun Gipson. Jarrod Wilson -- undrafted in 2016 -- has played 290 career snaps but is currently penciled in at free safety. Cody Davis (10 snaps last season) and Andrew Wingard (0) are the top depth. Easiest schedules
The Patriots were in this same spot one season ago thanks to weak Jets, Dolphins and Bills rosters. The Jets and Bills may be a bit better this season (but not by much), and the Dolphins are a good bet for the first overall pick in the 2020 draft. The Giants, Redskins and Bengals are also on the slate.
I grouped these two together so as to avoid a clean AFC East sweep. Playing the lowly Dolphins and each other twice is a big boost for Buffalo and New York. The Jets' unique games are the Jaguars and Raiders, whereas the Bills get the Titans and Broncos.
The Eagles ended up with the toughest regular season schedule among last season's 12 playoff teams, but that's unlikely to be the case in 2019. Philadelphia will benefit from four games against the Giants and Redskins, as well as showdowns with the Bills, Dolphins and Jets. The Eagles' toughest games are early-season trips to Green Bay and Minnesota and their matchups with Seattle and New England are at Lincoln Financial Field. Hardest schedules
The Bears were initially sixth on this list, but the five teams ahead of them all got a boost from having the Colts, now without Andrew Luck, on their slates. Chicago's schedule isn't too tough early on (Green Bay, at Denver, at Washington, vs. Minnesota, at Oakland), but gets much tougher after the Week 6 bye, with the likes of the Saints, Chargers, Eagles, Rams, Cowboys, Packers, Chiefs and Vikings all on tap.
Seattle's road slate is about as tough as you'll find with nondivisional trips to Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Atlanta, Philadelphia and Carolina on tap. The Saints, Rams and Vikings are among the teams headed to CenturyLink Field this season. Oh, and that doesn't even include six NFC South matchups against the loaded Rams and improved 49ers and Cardinals.
Atlanta's schedule gets lighter as the season goes on, but life will be very tough out of the gate with the Vikings, Eagles, Colts, Titans and Texans on the slate. A brutal schedule could be what keeps a talented Atlanta team out of the playoffs for the second consecutive season.
As if facing the Chiefs and Chargers twice each isn't bad enough, Denver also has Chicago and Cleveland at home and Green Bay, Indianapolis, Minnesota and Houston on the road. Their best bets for wins don't come until Week 16 (Detroit) and Week 17 (Oakland). Teams projected to score the most points
The Chiefs are near locks to score less often this season, but 2018 showed us that it will be hard to deny the combination of offensive genius Andy Reid and reigning NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs' shaky defense will only add pressure on the offense to score points, and we know it can deliver.
The Saints have ranked no lower than fourth in this category each of the past three seasons and haven't fallen below 12th during the Drew Brees era. Brees is back for more in his age-40 season.
In 2017, the Rams scored 45 offensive touchdowns (fifth most) and attempted 43 field goals (second most). In 2018, they scored 55 touchdowns (fourth) and attempted 41 field goals (second). Both field goal numbers rank top 10 in the NFL over the past decade. Teams projected to score the fewest points
Miami is clearly in rebuilding mode, leaving the offense with uncertainty and/or inexperience at nearly every position. The offensive line ranks among the league's worst, and quarterback is a major question mark with boom/bust Ryan Fitzpatrick competing with the unknown that is Josh Rosen.
Washington scored 281 points last season, which was fourth fewest in the league. Without Alex Smith, the likes of Case Keenum, Colt McCoy and rookie Dwayne Haskins will need to hold down the fort. It's hard to set a high bar for their group of primary targets, which has been ravaged by injuries and underwhelming play. This number may be even lower if Trent Williams doesn't return.
As noted earlier, the Broncos will face the AFC's hardest projected schedule. That's enough of a roadblock to success, but it's possible new QB Joe Flacco will be one as well. The former Raven posted the league's eighth-worst completion percentage (61%) and fifth-worst yards per attempt (6.5) in 2018. Defenses projected to allow the fewest points
Losing star safety Derwin James for most (all?) of the regular season stings, but this defense is still loaded. Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram form one of the league's best pass-rushing duos. Casey Hayward and Desmond King form one of the league's best cornerback duos. Thomas Davis was an impact addition at linebacker, and rookies DT Jerry Tillery and S Nasir Adderley offer upside at need positions. Defenses projected to allow the most points
Tampa Bay's defense has some intriguing young players, including Vita Vea, Devin White and Carlton Davis, but injuries to Vea and Jason Pierre-Paul, as well as unproven or inexperienced players at most starting positions means 2019 figures to be rough.
New GM Mike Mayock did well to refurbish this defense with talent, but he'll need more than one offseason to finish the overhaul. Rookies Clelin Ferrell and Johnathan Abram are both potential studs but can't be counted on before playing a single pro game. Facing the Chiefs and Chargers twice each certainly boosts this total.
If there's something nice we can say about Miami's 2019 roster, it's that a secondary that includes Xavien Howard, Minkah Fitzpatrick and Reshad Joneshas the potential to be very good. That said, the front seven could have the league's weakest short-term outlook. The Dolphins will need big gains from recent early-round picks Christian Wilkins, Charles Harris and Raekwon McMillan. My preseason Power Rankings
(* indicates projected playoff team) 1. New Orleans Saints.* The Saints were in this same spot last year and were one bad pass interference call away from the Super Bowl. They are, once again, terrific at basically every position, especially following the quick return of Sheldon Rankins from a torn Achilles tendon. With Drew Brees and Sean Payton leading the way, New Orleans is set for one more run at a Lombardi Trophy.
3. New England Patriots.* Bill Belichick, Tom Brady and the rest of the Patriots are back and in search of their 11th consecutive division title and ninth consecutive trip to the AFC Championship (seriously). They lost some key talent during the offseason (Rob Gronkowski, Trey Flowers, Trent Brown) but added some as well (Michael Bennett, Isaiah Wynn, Jamie Collins). Along with Brady, an outstanding offensive line and secondary set New England up for another title run.
4. Los Angeles Rams.* The defending NFC champions lost some talent during the offseason but remain in very good shape on both sides of the ball. In fact, it's not a stretch to say the Rams have a top 5 unit at running back, wide receiver, defensive tackle, cornerback and safety. The offensive line took a step back after the offseason departures of John Sullivan and Rodger Saffold, but coach Sean McVay's incredible ability to maximize scoring opportunities will be the key to keeping Los Angeles near the top of the league.
5. Los Angeles Chargers.* The Chargers would be higher here if not for an injury to Derwin James that will cost him most of the regular season. Despite the key loss and weak spots in the trenches on both sides of the ball, the Philip Rivers-led Chargers' roster is otherwise in terrific shape. The Chargers' defense has ranked top 8 in points allowed each of the past two seasons, and having a healthy Joey Bosa opposite Melvin Ingram to begin the season will help.
6. Chicago Bears.* The Bears' defense remains elite, and avoiding significant regression and injuries will be the key to keeping this team atop the NFC North. Quarterback remains a bit of a mystery as Mitch Trubisky has flashed at times and struggled with accuracy at others. A third-year leap could get this team to the next level.
7. Kansas City Chiefs.* History tells us that offenses that score as often as Kansas City did last season will still be very good the following season, but will nonetheless take a significant step back. That near-inevitable offensive regression is far from ideal considering the Kansas City defense is arguably worse on paper. Same as last year, a massive percentage of the Chiefs' fortune will rest in the hands of Mahomes.
8. Cleveland Browns.* The Browns had the talent in place to take a step forward last season, and a strong offseason means they should make another leap in 2019. Odell Beckham Jr. and Kareem Hunt were added to a loaded offense, and Olivier Vernon and Sheldon Richardson improve a defense that ranked 28th in sack rate last season. The offensive line is a slight concern, but if Baker Mayfield improves on his rookie season Cleveland will be in the running for the AFC North title.
9. Green Bay Packers.* The Packers are a good bet for a bounceback season following a strong offseason that included a revamping of the pass rush (Za'Darius Smith, Preston Smith, Rashan Gary) and safety position (Adrian Amos, Darnell Savage). Add that to cornerback room loaded with youth and pedigree and a healthy interior line, and the Packers' defense could take a big leap forward. Aaron Rodgers will set up shop behind one of the league's top offensive lines.
10. Dallas Cowboys.* The defending NFC East champs had a rather inconsequential offseason, but the roster is a bit better with the likes of David Irving and Cole Beasley departing and Robert Quinn, Randall Cobb, Travis Frederick and Jason Witten joining the club. Led by Dak Prescott and an elite offensive line, Dallas is well positioned to reach nine wins for the fourth consecutive season.
11. Pittsburgh Steelers.* All eyes are on the Browns, but the demise of the Steelers has been greatly exaggerated. Antonio Brown may be gone, but Ben Roethlisberger, James Conner, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Vance McDonald and a terrific line remain in place on an offense that set a franchise record in touchdowns last season. Youngsters Terrell Edmunds, Devin Bush and T.J. Watt will be key to keeping the defense afloat. Pittsburgh has won eight or more games every season since Ben Roethlisberger was drafted in 2004 and are positioned to do so again in 2019.
12. Minnesota Vikings. Minnesota's offseason was rather uneventful, which isn't ideal for a team that went 8-7-1 and is trying to reel in the Bears while also staying ahead of the improved Packers and Lions. It's possible the offense will be better in Kirk Cousins' second season, but a run-heavy game plan and conservative quarterback is rarely the best path to offensive success. Of course, the defense remains loaded with Harrison Smith, Danielle Hunter, Linval Joseph, Eric Kendricks and Anthony Barr back for more.
14. Atlanta Falcons. Led by Julio Jones and underrated Matt Ryan, Atlanta's offense is one of league's best on paper. The Falcons' defense is healthier than it was when it lost Deion Jones and Keanu Neal for most of 2018, but the front seven, especially edge rusher, remains a major concern (incredibly, Atlanta hasn't finished top 10 in sacks in over a decade).
15. Carolina Panthers. Adding Gerald McCoy supplies Carolina's defense with one of the league's top front sevens, but the secondary remains a major concern. The Cam Newton-led offense scored two-plus touchdowns in every game through Week 14 last season and could be even better with newcomer Matt Paradis and a healthy Daryl Williams injected into the offensive line.
16. Seattle Seahawks. Seattle overcame a shaky roster and survived until the wild-card round of the playoffs last season, but even with Russell Wilson under center, it's going to be hard for this team to match anything close to its unsustainable 2018 offensive efficiency. Combine that with a defense that added Jadeveon Clowney, but has been stripped of most of its top talent over the past two seasons, and Seattle has the look of a team primed for a step back.
17. Tennessee Titans. Despite constant quarterback headaches, Tennessee has managed to stay competitive during the Marcus Mariota era thanks to a strong defense and offensive line. Both units remain in terrific shape for 2019, especially following the additions of Rodger Saffold and Cameron Wake, and Mariota finally has a quality backup in the form of Ryan Tannehill.
18. Detroit Lions. If you're trying to pick a long shot to go from last to first in their division, the Lions are worth a look. Detroit made some significant offseason improvements, adding Trey Flowers to a stagnant pass rush, Justin Coleman and Rashaan Melvin to a weak cornerback group behind Darius Slayand T.J. Hockenson, and Jesse James to a tight end room that had been a non-factor. Detroit has a solid quarterback in Matthew Stafford and comes in around league average in both offensive and defensive talent on paper.
19. Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jalen Ramsey and Calais Campbell-led defense remains one of the league's best on paper, but the offseason losses of Malik Jackson, Tashaun Gipson and Telvin Smith certainly expose some potential holes. It's possible those losses will be offset by a quarterback upgrade from Blake Bortles to Nick Foles, but that's a big ask for a player who has primarily been a backup and won't have near as good a supporting cast as he did in Philadelphia.
20. Baltimore Ravens. Baltimore is a tricky team to project as a lot will depend on just how well Lamar Jackson progresses in his second NFL season. Baltimore's run-heavy, low-scoring offense was protected by a very good defense last season, but the departure of the unit's Nos. 1, 2, 5 and 7 snap-getters is a massive concern. Sure, Earl Thomas (who has missed 19 games over the past three seasons) could be a huge addition, but he doesn't come close to offsetting the losses of C.J. Mosley, Eric Weddle, Terrell Suggs and Za'Darius Smith.
21. San Francisco 49ers. It's hard to look at the 49ers' roster and not get excited about the potential. The team has five defensive linemen who were picked in the first round (Dee Ford, Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead, DeForest Buckner, Solomon Thomas), and Kwon Alexander was added to shore up linebacker. A lot is riding on Jimmy Garoppolo, who has never appeared in more than six games in a regular season and has more turnovers (13) than games played with the 49ers (nine).
22. Indianapolis Colts. Where art thou, Andrew Luck? During Luck's seven seasons in the league, the Colts won at least 10 games in four of five seasons in which he appeared in at least half of the team's games. They won a total of 12 games during the other two seasons. The Colts still have a very good offensive line and solid defense, so I expect them to be better this season than they were in 2017, but it's hard to consider this team a playoff threat until Jacoby Brissettshows he's taken a big step forward.
23. Denver Broncos. Denver's quarterback situation makes it really hard to rank this team much higher, but there is certainly some reason for optimism. The offense is loaded with young talent and the defense sports one of the league's top edge-rushing duos (Von Miller, Bradley Chubb) and cornerback units (Chris Harris Jr., Bryce Callahan and nickel Kareem Jackson). It's not crazy to think the Broncos will surprise, but Flacco will need to be much better, and they'll need to overcome the aforementioned tough schedule.
24. New York Jets. The Jets had a busy offseason on both sides of the football, including key additions Le'Veon Bell, C.J. Mosley and Quinnen Williams. The defense has a very good, young core in place, but major weak spots remain at edge rusher and cornerback, and a season-ending injury to Avery Williamson obviously hurts. The key for this team will undoubtedly be the progress of second-year QB Sam Darnold, who looked the part during the final four weeks of his rookie season.
25. Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Buccaneers are a popular "worst to first" pick, but I don't see it. Major concern areas remain at edge rusher and the secondary. Jameis Winston took a step forward in some ways last season but still struggled badly with interceptions and will need to overcome a shaky offensive line. New coach Bruce Arians will have his work cut out in his first season in Tampa.
26. Arizona Cardinals. All of the talk is about the team's new-look, Kyler Murray-led offense, but Arizona's defense is what propels them this "high" in the rankings. The team added the likes of Terrell Suggs, Jordan Hicks, Byron Murphy and D.J. Swearinger to a core that already includes Chandler Jones, Patrick Peterson and Budda Baker. New coach Kliff Kingsbury will have his hands full getting consistent production from a young offense with a shaky line, but it will be possible if Murray proves the real deal.
27. Cincinnati Bengals. Plain and simple, the Bengals didn't do enough to improve the roster after being outscored by 87 points last season. Their defense allowed an NFL-worst 6,618 yards, but their top veteran offseason additions were B.W. Webb, John Miller and Kerry Wynn. The offensive line remains one of the league's worst, especially after first-round pick Jonah Williams was lost for the season, and A.J. Green's ankle injury just adds to the list of problems.
28. Oakland Raiders. The Raiders are undoubtedly better on paper today than they were one year ago after a lengthy list of offseason additions that includes Antonio Brown, Josh Jacobs, Lamarcus Joyner and Vontaze Burfict. Of course, this was a team that ranked 28th in offensive touchdowns and dead last in sacks, forced fumbles and points allowed last season, so the process of turning the team around has just begun. Oakland figures to pick in the top 10 again next season.
29. Buffalo Bills. The Bills remain in good shape on the defensive side of the ball and could be even better if youngsters Ed Oliver, Tremaine Edmunds, Taron Johnson and Levi Wallace combine to make a big impact. The concern area here is, of course, on the offensive side of the ball. Buffalo was extremely busy during free agency, but perhaps aside of Mitch Morse, it's hard to find incoming players who will truly move the needle in the short term. Josh Allen's accuracy and decision-making while leading an offense with a shaky supporting cast will determine Buffalo's 2019 fate.
30. New York Giants. The Giants finished 22nd in offensive touchdowns last season and that was with recently traded Odell Beckham Jr. on the roster. The New York defense ranked 30th in sacks and 23rd in points allowed last season and moved on from Olivier Vernon and Landon Collins during the offseason. New York's depleted defense is arguably worst in the league, and it's a long shot that conservative, inefficient Eli Manning can carry this team on his back at age 38.
31. Washington Redskins. Washington has built a potentially dominant defensive line (Daron Payne, Jonathan Allen, Ryan Kerrigan, Montez Sweat), but it's hard to find many other short-term positives. There are more questions than answers on the offensive side of the ball (including a seemingly wide-open quarterback competition) and the back end of the defense has major depth concerns behind Josh Norman and well-funded box safety Landon Collins.
32. Miami Dolphins. This ranking should hardly come as a surprise as it's no secret that the Dolphins are in the midst of a rebuild. Outside of a pretty good secondary that includes one of the league's top young cornerback duos, the Dolphins' 2019 outlook is bleak at nearly every position. The Dolphins are the heavy favorite to pick first overall in next year's draft. Super Bowl prediction
Saints over Patriots
The Saints are the league's best team on paper, and barring a significant decline in play from Drew Brees, should be the favorite to represent the NFC in Miami on Feb. 2, 2020. I'd feel better about the Chargers overtaking New England if not for the James injury, but especially with Josh Gordon back in the fold the Patriots are set up well for their third consecutive Super Bowl appearance Offensive unit grade rankings by team
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The Best & Worst NFL Teams At Everything 🏈
Quarterbacks: Denver Broncos
3. Miami Dolphins: 412 points
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