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Week 1 College Football Picks, Bets, Nuggets 🤑
'Stanford Steve' and 'The Bear': Week 1 college football picks, bets, nuggets
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College football season is here, which means that it's time for "Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris "The Bear" Fallica.
In this file, they break down Week 1 of the season as only they can, offering their top bets, nuggets, games to stay away from and even a 12-team moneyline parlay to jump on.
The plays
The Bear
No. 14 Utah Utes (-6.5) at BYU Cougars
A home team ... getting points ... what's better than that? The Utes have put together a nice little winning streak in this series, but the Cougars easily could have won a couple of the games. Utah has a lot of national expectations on its shoulders, and I'm not interested in laying almost seven points (which it is in some spots) in a rivalry game where the underdog has covered seven of the last nine meetings, winning three outright. Eliminate a 44-point Utah win in 2011 and the other eight meetings have been decided by a combined 36 points.
Pick: BYU +6.5
Eastern Michigan Eagles (-6) at Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
I love Eastern Michigan. The Eagles have been an ATM for Steve and me over the last couple of years, but I don't like this spot at all. Eleven of the past 14 games Eastern Michigan has played away from home have been a loss or decided by six points or less. Coastal Carolina has a lot back on defense from a unit that can't help but be better, as well as leading rusher CJ Marable. Expect another nail-biter from the cardiac Eagles.
Pick: Coastal Carolina +6
Utah State Aggies at Wake Forest Demon Deacons (-3.5)
Utah State lost a ton from last year's 10-win team. QB Jordan Love and LB David Woodward are back, but that's about it. Wake's offense really took off with Jamie Newman at QB and, after getting drilled by Notre Dame, the defense played better. The Deacs have a difference-maker at each level of the defense, and DL Boogie Basham Jr. is poised for a huge year. I'm on the Deacs here, and Steve is as well. Those matches usually work out well.
Pick: Wake Forest -3.5
Georgia Southern Eagles at No. 6 LSU Tigers(-27.5)
This game is about winning and showing nothing in the playbook. The last thing LSU offensive coordinator Joe Brady wants to do is give Texas something to look at on film ahead of next week's game in Austin. So get up comfortably and cruise home, which is typically Coach O's mode in games like this. Ed Orgeron is 0-7 ATS in nonconference games as a favorite of at least 17 points, which includes a loss as a 20.5-point favorite vs. Troy. The Eagles kept it respectable against Clemson last year and have played Georgia tough in the past as well.
Pick: Georgia Southern +27.5
Stanford Steve
Northwestern Wildcats at Stanford Cardinal(-6.5)
The last time these two teams played was in the season opener in 2015 when the underdog Wildcats pulled off the upset while Pat Fitzgerald and his coaching staff coached in shorts. There aren't too many guys better as an underdog in college football than Fitzgerald, as he proved once again when the Wildcats went 7-1-1 as a 'dog last year. When you add a five-star QB to the mix, the Wildcats come into Palo Alto as a very capable opponent for the Cardinal, who are fresh off a season where they averaged 107.9 rushing yards per game, which ranked 122nd in the FBS. It won't be pretty, but I'll take the road team plus the points.
Pick: Northwestern +6.5
Utah State at Wake Forest (-3.5, 59.5)
This one has the feel of a great player not having enough around him to win a game against bigger school from a power conference. That player is Love, and this year he comes into the season having to replace four new offensive lineman, as they graduated six overall. Plus, he only returns two guys who caught more than 10 balls last year. On the other side, Wake Forest comes in looking to make a bowl for a fourth straight season with an offense that scored 50 or more four times last year, averaging 33 PPG with a record of 7-2 when they gained more than 400 yards of offense in a game. Newman is the guy at QB winning the job in camp, and he finished last year winning three of the final four games while playing well in all of them. I love Deacs WR Sage Surratt (6-foot-3, 220), who should be Newman's top target. Lay the points and parlay the over if you want.
Pick: Wake Forest (-3.5, over 59.5)
Stay-away games
The Bear
UCLA Bruins at Cincinnati Bearcats (-2.5)
It didn't take long for oddsmakers to give you one of those "I dare you" games. UCLA is coming off a 3-9 season in which it lost at home to the Bearcats, and it's just a 2.5-point underdog to a team in its home opener that is coming off an 11-win season. This screams pass (or UCLA) to me.
Stanford Steve
Wisconsin Badgers (-12.5) at South Florida Bulls
So much is unknown here. How do the Badgers look after a disappointing season in 2018 as a double-digit road favorite? How does the QB look? What does USF bring to the table as a home underdog? How will the Badgers respond to the Florida heat? It's a pass for me. I want nothing to do with it.
Stanford Steve's blind over bet for the week
Florida Atlantic Owls at Ohio State Buckeyes (over 63.5)
I'm not sure there would be a number high enough to scare me off taking the over in this one. Last year the Owls went to Norman and lost to Kyler Murray and the Sooners 63-14 and the total was 66.5. This year there is a new coach and QB in Columbus who want to prove they are for real, a defense in Ohio State that had plenty of holes last year and a team from Boca Raton with an offense that should bring more to the table than it did last year vs. Oklahoma. This just feels like a not-close game that's high-scoring. Just a hunch: Take the over. Ohio State 48, FAU 20.
Stanford Steve's line that stinks and makes no sense
Toledo Rockets at Kentucky Wildcats (under 61.5)
I feel like Kentucky has too much talent on defense and not enough on offense for this game to stay under 61 points. Take the under. Kentucky 28, Toledo 19.
Stanford Steve's home underdog in a conference game that I like
Virginia Tech Hokies at Boston College Eagles (+5)
Coach Steve Addazio still has enough dudes to stay close to the Hokies. Take the home team and the points. Virginia Tech 19, Boston College 18
Stanford Steve's other underdog worth taking on the moneyline
Ole Miss Rebels at Memphis Tigers (-5.5)
It's called gambling for a reason. This might be the only time even think of taking Ole Miss this year, but I love the hires they made at each coordinator spot. This might be the last time I mention taking the Rebels this year. Just a hunch, but sprinkle a little at +175 on the moneyline for the Rebels. Ole Miss 34, Memphis 31
Bear Bites
Northwestern at Stanford
• The Cats are 13-3-1 ATS with 10 outright wins in their past 17 games as a dog, including a 7-1-1 mark with six outright wins as a 'dog in 2018.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Louisville Cardinals
• Louisville was a horrific 1-11 ATS last year, covering only in a 4-point loss as a 5.5-point dog vs Florida State. But the Cardinals' ATS swoon dates back to mid-2016. In its last 29 games, Louisville is 5-23-1 ATS. Good luck, Scott Satterfield.
Akron Zips at Illinois Fighting Illini
• I once muttered on the Stanford Steve and the Bear Pod that I couldn't see myself going to the window and saying, "Oh yeah, gimme Illinois minus the points." That was prior to Illinois' 3-point win as a 5-point favorite over Ball State in 2017. Under Lovie Smith, Illinois has faced three MAC teams and hasn't covered any of the three games.
Texas is back...
• ... as a big favorite in the season opener, a role in which the Longhorns have lost outright each of the past two years (18.5- and 12.5-point favorites against Maryland). Now the Longhorns are a big favorite over Louisiana Tech one week in front of a huge game with LSU.
BC as home 'dog
• The Eagles have been a home 'dog 17 times under Steve Addazio. They have pulled four upsets, including each of the past two years vs. Miami and Florida State.
Bear's moneyline parlay of the week
Based on current prices
12-teamer at -110 ($110 to win $100)
Arizona State -2500
Army -2000
Michigan State -2500
Ohio State -5000
Illinois -900
Washington -2000
Tennessee -3500
Georgia -2000
Missouri -1100
Iowa -2000
Oklahoma -1500
Notre Dame -1430
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Originally Posted by 2daBank
