[Capybara]

No plays today still... debated this under and debated Watson over rushing yards... screw it, will play it live or 2H if at all. Should be two good games.

[2daBank]

Gl these playoffs brotha

[Capybara]

Gl these playoffs brotha

You too, bud!

Waiting for the right moment to hit something hard and cap the season off strong!

[2daBank]

You too, bud!

Waiting for the right moment to hit something hard and cap the season off strong!

Yep feel yea., don’t think it this weekend considering my biggest pay a teaser. Lol. A really good teaser i think but still!! Philly:Seattle under might be up there for me.

[Capybara]

What’s up, SBR? Sorry, been dealing with some personal stuff, so handicapping and wagering fell by the wayside last weekend and on... Hoping to rally for the final nine football games of the betting season!

Updated thread record: 131-119, +6.80x.

Back soon with plays. My gut wants to play a Niners-Titans teaser for tomorrow, but I haven’t put time in yet looking at the matchups, so I will refrain until then. Good luck this weekend, let’s kill it, fellas.

[Capybara]

Nowhere near done capping the four NFL games this weekend, but I (perhaps prematurely) already locked this teaser, so may as well post it!

2-tm teaser, Niners -1 / Titans +17, -110 (1.5x)

Also leaning under in the first game... will probably have more coming.

[Capybara]

Got the above teaser already, but I do like the Niners are a decent amount today on their own, so gonna roll with these two plays...

Debating adding the unders, but I feel like the totals may tick up so I'm waiting there... also I'm debating between under and Minny TT under.

Niners -7, -105 (1x)

Niners 1h -3.5, -110 (1x)

And where do my brethren stand on this game?

[Capybara]

As far as game #2 today goes, the more I look at it the more I'm actually leaning Ravens and getting a little nervous about even my Titans +17 on the teaser... I may even end up playing the Ravens. Total-wise, I lean to the under.

Returning to the Niners game, I feel pretty strongly that they are a much worse matchup for the Vikings than the Saints were. So many ways they can attack the Vikings. Whereas on the opposite side, unless the Vikes can keep getting consistent yardage on first down, I don't see them consistently putting up points/ staying in the game. Like there is a script in which the Vikes can win this game, but I don't trust that offensive staff to find it. (Plus there are the health concerns for that offense.) Whereas I fully trust Shanahan to use everything at his disposal, and there is a lot at his disposal.

[2daBank]

I used niners to start a teaser w ravens and kc but didn’t trust them to cover. I’m on the over tho. I think niners can hang 27+ and I actually think Vikings go over that 17.5 number. Niners games been really high scoring lately. Gl brother.

[2daBank]

I think niners offense a way tougher matchup for sure.,

I think ravens beat the brakes off titans.

[Capybara]

I used niners to start a teaser w ravens and kc but didn’t trust them to cover. I’m on the over tho. I think niners can hang 27+ and I actually think Vikings go over that 17.5 number. Niners games been really high scoring lately. Gl brother.

Thanks for checking in, Banker. Yeah, I've been back and forth on the Game #1 total, so I think I'm leaving it alone. I don't share your confidence that the Vikes put up points obviously, but we'll see. The Niners, however, sure, the possibility of 27+ or 30+ is very evident to me... Teaser-wise, I am wishing I found another partner for the Niners. The more I look at Ravens-Titans, the more I could see a blowout. I give a ton of respect to the Titans for their run, but there are some very concerning numbers and matchups for them in this one.

[2daBank]

Thanks for checking in, Banker. Yeah, I've been back and forth on the Game #1 total, so I think I'm leaving it alone. I don't share your confidence that the Vikes put up points obviously, but we'll see. The Niners, however, sure, the possibility of 27+ or 30+ is very evident to me... Teaser-wise, I am wishing I found another partner for the Niners. The more I look at Ravens-Titans, the more I could see a blowout. I give a ton of respect to the Titans for their run, but there are some very concerning numbers and matchups for them in this one.

Henry had only rushed 30+ times in a game once in his career and now has done it b2b games. Backs with that many rushes in b2b games this year have had a half yard per carry fall off in their 3rd game. I’d assume that prob pretty constant but I didn’t have the energy to try and dig back further. Think that something nobody really talking bout that doesn’t bode well for titans. Among many other things like them being bottom 3rd the league defending tight ends, 3rd straight on road, and ravens just being way freakin better. I teased ravens down, if they lose to titans I freaking quit!! Lol

[Capybara]

Henry had only rushed 30+ times in a game once in his career and now has done it b2b games. Backs with that many rushes in b2b games this year have had a half yard per carry fall off in their 3rd game. I’d assume that prob pretty constant but I didn’t have the energy to try and dig back further. Think that something nobody really talking bout that doesn’t bode well for titans. Among many other things like them being bottom 3rd the league defending tight ends, 3rd straight on road, and ravens just being way freakin better. I teased ravens down, if they lose to titans I freaking quit!! Lol

And don't forget that people mis-analyze the Pats game. The Pats were LETTING Henry have his way in the 1h because they were taking away the explosive pass (to their detriment perhaps but it wasn't their D who lost the game). In the 2H they took him out of the game. You're right about all the bad signs for the Titans here... I still felt like they stay within 17 for a teaser, but I wish I had just teased the Ravens now. Maybe I still will, but ehh, you can get yourself too tied up in teasers, I don't even like them. I guess I will probably just roll with my one. Watch it be the Vikes who end up killing it anyway. It's rare these all play out like we see them in the NFL.

[2daBank]

And don't forget that people mis-analyze the Pats game. The Pats were LETTING Henry have his way in the 1h because they were taking away the explosive pass (to their detriment perhaps but it wasn't their D who lost the game). In the 2H they took him out of the game. You're right about all the bad signs for the Titans here... I still felt like they stay within 17 for a teaser, but I wish I had just teased the Ravens now. Maybe I still will, but ehh, you can get yourself too tied up in teasers, I don't even like them. I guess I will probably just roll with my one. Watch it be the Vikes who end up killing it anyway. It's rare these all play out like we see them in the NFL.

I hear ya. Feels like one these favs goes down but for life of me I can’t figure out which. Niners would be the least surprising to me. I’ve felt like kc/ravens been on a collision course for some time.

I dunno how anyone was that impressed by the pats game anyways? (totally agree pats just didn’t stack the box for some reason), ravens destroyed that pats team, titans barely squeaked by!! I don’t think there any question ravens will bring Thomas down into box and they will run blitz like crazy to prevent Henry from gaining a head of steam. Tannenhill will have to hit them for some big plays for them to have any chance to stay in it imo, I don’t see them having the ability to drive the field without any mistakes against ravens pressure. They gonna have to take those shots early and on early downs cause I don’t think their pass protection can hold up vs ravens blitzes on obvious passing downs. If ravens lose this game I freaking give up!! Lol. 17 is a lot of points tho. Here’s to a 13-14 point ravens win (Pretty sure I’m gonna end up laying the -10).,

[Capybara]

Let's go!

Man, I love Deebo. Can't believe he was there for the Pats at #32 and they went with Harry.

[Capybara]

Welcome back, Dee Ford! Cash that 1H.

Thread record: 132-119, +7.80x.

[Capybara]

Well that game went down 100% how I saw it. Wish that could always happen!

Cash the -7.

Thread record: 133-119, +8.80x.

And got the teaser still going with Titans +17. (Actually leaning Ravens now, though. Not sure if I'll have a further play on this game or not. Still debating.)

[Capybara]

I've got to do it.

Ravens -10, -110 (1x)

Just hope it lands between 10 and 17!

[Capybara]

Wow, Tannehill dropping bombs. Well, teaser hits for 1.5x... wish I left things well enough alone, but profit is profit!

[Capybara]

This is honestly what's great about the NFL playoffs. A Titan beat-down. Not sure anyone saw *this* coming!

Anyway, teaser hits crazy easy! Dumb last-minute play falls.

Updated thread record: 134-120, +9.20x.

Man, I had both of these unders lined up too... played it too conservative. Oh well, a good day nonetheless!

Back in the morning...

[Capybara]

Couldn't decide on a play for Game #1. Got Chiefs -3.5 to finish a teaser (unposted), so aside from that, just going to watch and probably get on something live.

Lean Chiefs like everyone else.

[Capybara]

Guys, Texans ML is still only +105 at 14-0! Hope y'all are checking your live options. Can get expensive, but so many good options.

[Capybara]

What a bananas game!!

Anyone grab Chiefs ML when it was 24-0? Wonder what that was.

[Optional]

You can get some +1000 on Texans now

[Optional]

lol, went to +1150 after they klcked extra point

[Capybara]

Sorry for the buzzkill of the thread having no plays today, lol. In the end all I really had were leans, so I exercised (too much) caution. Had I played my leans, I'd have profited of course, because we must always be tortured like that.

Anyway, only four games left. No Days Off anymore, as Belichick would say. I will have plays in here for all of those.

Leaning toward 1H under in the Big Game tomorrow. I feel like everyone and his brother loves Clemson, which is leading me to want to lay the chalk, but we'll see.

[Capybara]

All right, here's how I see it:

LSU -4, -115 (1x)

LSU 1h -3, -110 (1x)

Clemson/LSU 1h under 33.5, -105 (1x)

LSU TT over 36, -110 (1x)

Everyone seems to be talking about how LSU is overrated... To me, if one of these teams is overrated, it's this year's Clemson team. They shouldn't even be in this game, it should be Ohio State. LSU played a MUCH tougher schedule. And, mostly, I've just never seen anything like Joe Burrow, in terms of always making the right decision and making every pass accurately. It's two excellent QB's but from what I've watched, Burrow is the destroyer. And Edwards-Helaire is almost as special. I see no reason that he can't take Clemson apart the way Dobbins did for OSU. And if they take him away, there's plenty of other weapons, with Burrow always making the right read. And for the last point, LSU's defense has actually quietly been trending up, under the radar due to their offense.

Hey, listen, nobody knows, but that's how I see it. Should be a very interesting game! Good luck to everyone.

[Capybara]

Bumped those first two up a half-unit each. Let's Geeeaaauuuuxxxxx!

[Capybara]

Added a half-unit to the TT too... I need to see someone stop them... Think Clemson D got fat on a cake schedule. Good luck holding LSU down. If I'm wrong I'm wrong. Let's Geaux!!

[Capybara]

That's my boy... Like I said, good luck stopping him!!

Debating LSU 2H or LSU 2H TT ... But I don't like that last shot he took.

[Capybara]

Sure, I'll get greedy:

LSU 2H TT over 17, -115 (1x)

[Capybara]

Let's GEEAAUUXX!!! As predicted, Bayou Bengals threw it down.

Threw away two units (I can never choose the right 2H play to save my life, although that was a bad beat), but cashed the three 1.5x plays, for a 2.30x profit! Love to finish the college season on a winning night.

Thread record: 137-122, +11.50x.

[Capybara]

Everyone psyched for tomorrow?

Trying to dot my i's and cross my t's, so haven't made any official plays yet, but leaning to both faves... just makes me a bit nervous since usually both of these games won't stick to the script and at least one favorite will get back-doored if not lose outright.

As far as the NFC goes, San Fran is a terrible matchup for GB. And San Fran is healthier now than when they mauled them in November. The only way Green Bay takes this is if San Fran helps them out with turnovers. The disparity in experience between A-Rodg and Jimmy G is what gives me pause, but it's the only thing.

For the AFC, I mean, again, this Tennessee defense is mediocre. It's getting by because they're getting up on teams, getting fortunate turnovers or mistakes by the opposition, and then just wearing them down. It's very impressive. But eventually it catches up. I actually am a believer in Tannehill, which is the one element that gives me pause here. In no way do I think Tennessee is going to hold the KC offense down, BUT, I could see them surprisingly putting up points to hang in, or even if not, maybe back-dooring for the cover. Maybe the most sensible play here is the KC TT over... And I think the full game over also is enticing.

Thoughts from the rest of the SBR cognoscenti?

[Capybara]

While I like both faves a fair amount, I'm nervous that one of the two won't come through, so have opted to handle it in as square a way possible with this teaser:

Chiefs -1/ Niners -2, -110 (2x)

LFG!

I may have more stuff, but so far just that.

[Madison]

While I like both faves a fair amount, I'm nervous that one of the two won't come through, so have opted to handle it in as square a way possible with this teaser:

Chiefs -1/ Niners -2, -110 (2x)

LFG!

I may have more stuff, but so far just that.

The only thing holding me back from tease/ml parlay is it's so square it scares the begeezuz out of me.