[stevenash]

Your pal Nasher was playing around with SQL, Excel etc. this morning and I have a theory as to why MLB bullpens are so terrible this season. Actually I have more than one theory, the first one being the most simple theory.

a) Team bullpens from top to bottom are being severely overused.
That's why you're seeing so many teams relievers get lit up. Overuse.

b) Teams are using 'openers' in lieu of 'starters' way too much.
'Openers' do just that, they open games but don't pitch more than 2 innings or so.
That means teams must use six or seven innings of relievers.
And the opener is usually a long reliever so that eliminates one reliever already for that particular game.

c) The combination of overtaxed bullpen arms and the super ball on steroids that fly off the bat is a multiple home run appearance waiting to happen.

Here's a few fun facts I've discovered.
25 out of 30 teams bullpens so far this season have ERA's over 4 (that's a record high)

There have been over 50 occurrences so far this season where non-pitchers (position players) have pitched in games due to blowouts or relievers not available for whatever reason. That 50 stat already smashed all time records and there's about 36 games on the average left to play.

Now I'm about to post some tables. (oh no Nasher, not more stats! Well it's who I am, it's what I do.
The only teams that have sub 4.00 ERA's are Cleveland, Tampa Bay, St. Louis, Houston, and San Francisco.
Is it any wonder that those five aforementioned teams are division leaders or ahead in the wild card standings.
Oakland (number six) is also in the thick of the AL wildcard race, just a game and a half back of the Rays.

This is why you can't discount the Indians, Rays, or the Giants if they make the postseason, they have a commodity that 83 percent of all the other teams don't have, a reliable bullpen.
Breakdown this even further the division leading Cardinals lead the league in converted save percentage (38 saves in 48 save situations is 79 percent and that is MLB's best) and the Indians are #4 in the MLB save conversion percentage with 73%. The league average in 63 percent.

This is why I think the Cardinals and the Indians would be scary teams to face in the October playoffs.
The Astros might be the most complete team in all the majors, their bullpen across the board numbers are pretty much top ten, although the Dodgers lineup is lethal their bullpen is mediocre at best.
The Cards are also among leaders in the league in least amount of bullpen innings used department. Their arms are fresh.
Astros are up there too, Astro's with all that hitting, starting pitching and fresh arms in the 'pen are the best team at this point in the majors.

I keep hearing about how solid the Yankees bullpen is but the 22 blown save number is way to high. NYY does lead the league in saves (48) but a lot of that is due to timely hitting. I still believe however the save requirements need to be changed however. One more thing, New York's bullpen has been overworked all season, 25th out of 30th in most innings used.

Did you know the Dodgers relievers lead the majors in allowing inherited baserunner to score?
That's not good, and their bullpen ERA is 4.18 that's not good either.

Two playoff contending teams have brutal bullpens, they are the Nationals and the Braves.
The Nationals sport a team bullpen of 6.04 and that ranks rock bottom in the National League.
The Braves have ugly numbers too. They are below average is save conversions, Braves relievers are the most overtaxed in the National League, which if you go way back to the beginning of this post is the main reason why 25 out of 30 MLB 'pen suck this season.

My point is this.
When I handicap baseball games I always start with a teams pitching staff. Bother starters and relievers.
When I breakdown a teams relief corp I factor in who's available, who's hot etc etc.
This is why I would consider a Indians or Cards wager more so than a Dodger or Yankees or especially a Braves or Nationals wager.

Here's the table: Fool around with the numbers if you will.
(note how brutal the Red Sox are this year)
R/A is runs allowed per game. WGR is wins in relief. LGR is losses in relief.
IR is inherited runners, IS is inherited runners scored, and IS% is inherited runners scored percentage.

Tm	RA/G	G	GR	GF	Wgr	Lgr	SVOpp	SV	BSv	SV%	Hold	IR	IS	IS%
ARI	4.67	125	403	125	19	22	46	28	18	61%	60	174	36	21%
ATL	4.89	126	443	125	32	17	57	35	22	61%	82	215	73	34%
BAL	6.45	124	392	124	15	21	40	23	17	58%	40	226	92	41%
BOS	5.14	127	448	125	26	18	47	24	23	51%	70	167	49	29%
CHC	4.35	124	412	123	26	23	54	31	23	57%	62	201	66	33%
CHW	5.17	123	399	119	18	16	37	25	12	68%	47	223	69	31%
CIN	4.38	123	411	123	20	26	49	35	14	71%	63	197	67	34%
CLE	3.98	125	398	120	26	11	45	33	12	73%	58	203	46	23%
COL	5.82	124	419	123	20	22	41	21	20	51%	45	176	65	37%
DET	5.57	122	436	121	19	27	45	25	20	56%	52	184	67	36%
HOU	4.06	125	370	125	22	15	47	31	16	66%	71	104	29	28%
KCR	5.18	125	378	123	12	26	45	26	19	58%	47	202	74	37%
LAA	5.29	126	427	126	37	20	36	27	9	75%	62	183	62	34%
LAD	3.83	126	387	123	31	20	53	32	21	60%	49	144	60	42%
MIA	4.87	123	388	122	14	22	35	21	14	60%	37	133	35	26%
MIL	5.08	124	429	124	31	26	55	35	20	64%	74	173	53	31%
MIN	4.66	124	384	124	25	18	55	37	18	67%	66	160	46	29%
NYM	4.73	124	374	121	24	25	53	30	23	57%	45	160	53	33%
NYY	4.75	126	403	125	35	13	70	48	22	69%	91	173	51	29%
OAK	4.26	125	419	123	21	20	53	30	23	57%	75	193	62	32%
PHI	4.92	124	410	121	24	20	44	29	15	66%	69	129	40	31%
PIT	5.46	123	396	122	23	26	44	24	20	55%	42	148	55	37%
SDP	4.84	123	402	123	24	23	65	40	25	62%	78	178	53	30%
SEA	5.69	125	392	122	21	28	45	25	20	56%	48	168	58	35%
SFG	4.8	125	425	124	31	12	47	33	14	70%	62	167	49	29%
STL	4.25	122	395	121	26	15	48	38	10	79%	67	193	49	25%
TBR	3.85	125	434	125	37	26	54	34	20	63%	87	185	55	30%
TEX	5.35	124	372	121	23	20	38	26	12	68%	44	169	57	34%
TOR	4.96	127	430	126	30	20	32	24	8	75%	48	194	50	26%
WSN	4.67	123	406	122	17	29	57	34	23	60%	74	171	69	40%
LgAvg	4.86	124	406	123	24	21	48	30	18	63%	61	176	56	32%

[jts1207]

Nailed it Nasher. Starters rarely go past 6 innings anymore.....terrible.

[jtoler]

the juiced balls. thats what causes a and b on your list relevant. if u look at average era over the years its always highest in the years when the balls have been expected or known to be juiced. 1987 and the late 90's were big years for juiced balls/steroids and guys were juicing big until testing whatever year that started.

League Year-By-Year Pitching--Averages

Year	Tms	#P	PAge	R/G	ERA	G	GF	CG	SHO	tSho	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	IBB	SO	HBP	BK	WP	BF	ERA+	WHIP	BAbip	H9	HR9	BB9	SO9	SO/W	E
2019	30	775	28.5	4.86	4.54	3732	0.99	0.01	0.01	0.05	0.24	8.93	8.72	4.86	4.50	1.41	3.25	0.16	8.73	0.40	0.03	0.37	38.39		1.341	.299	8.8	1.4	3.3	8.8	2.69	0.61
2018	30	799	28.4	4.45	4.15	4862	0.99	0.01	0.00	0.06	0.26	8.94	8.44	4.45	4.12	1.15	3.23	0.19	8.48	0.40	0.03	0.38	38.08		1.304	.295	8.5	1.2	3.2	8.5	2.63	0.57
2017	30	755	28.5	4.65	4.36	4860	0.99	0.01	0.01	0.05	0.24	8.90	8.69	4.65	4.31	1.26	3.26	0.20	8.25	0.36	0.03	0.37	38.13		1.342	.300	8.8	1.3	3.3	8.3	2.53	0.58
2016	30	742	28.3	4.48	4.19	4856	0.98	0.02	0.01	0.06	0.26	8.92	8.71	4.48	4.15	1.16	3.11	0.19	8.03	0.34	0.03	0.37	38.01		1.325	.300	8.8	1.2	3.1	8.1	2.58	0.58
2015	30	735	28.4	4.25	3.96	4858	0.98	0.02	0.01	0.07	0.27	8.94	8.67	4.25	3.93	1.01	2.90	0.20	7.71	0.33	0.03	0.36	37.80		1.294	.299	8.7	1.0	2.9	7.8	2.66	0.58
2014	30	692	28.5	4.07	3.74	4860	0.98	0.02	0.01	0.07	0.26	8.97	8.56	4.07	3.73	0.86	2.88	0.20	7.70	0.34	0.03	0.35	37.85		1.275	.298	8.6	0.9	2.9	7.7	2.67	0.60
2013	30	679	28.4	4.17	3.87	4862	0.97	0.03	0.01	0.07	0.26	8.98	8.66	4.17	3.86	0.96	3.01	0.21	7.55	0.32	0.03	0.36	38.02		1.300	.297	8.7	1.0	3.0	7.6	2.51	0.56
2012	30	662	28.4	4.32	4.01	4860	0.97	0.03	0.01	0.06	0.26	8.92	8.65	4.32	3.98	1.02	3.03	0.22	7.50	0.31	0.03	0.32	37.90		1.309	.297	8.7	1.0	3.1	7.6	2.48	0.62
2011	30	662	28.3	4.28	3.94	4858	0.96	0.04	0.02	0.07	0.26	8.96	8.70	4.28	3.92	0.94	3.09	0.25	7.10	0.32	0.03	0.32	38.13		1.316	.295	8.7	0.9	3.1	7.1	2.30	0.63
2010	30	635	28.4	4.38	4.08	4860	0.97	0.03	0.01	0.07	0.25	8.91	8.76	4.38	4.04	0.95	3.25	0.25	7.06	0.32	0.04	0.34	38.18		1.347	.297	8.8	1.0	3.3	7.1	2.17	0.62
2009	30	664	28.4	4.61	4.32	4860	0.97	0.03	0.01	0.06	0.25	8.90	8.96	4.61	4.28	1.04	3.42	0.24	6.91	0.33	0.03	0.33	38.49		1.390	.299	9.1	1.0	3.5	7.0	2.02	0.59
2008	30	651	28.6	4.65	4.32	4856	0.97	0.03	0.01	0.06	0.24	8.93	9.06	4.65	4.29	1.00	3.36	0.27	6.77	0.34	0.03	0.32	38.64		1.391	.300	9.1	1.0	3.4	6.8	2.01	0.61
2007	30	666	28.7	4.80	4.47	4862	0.98	0.02	0.01	0.05	0.25	8.93	9.25	4.80	4.44	1.02	3.31	0.27	6.62	0.36	0.03	0.31	38.80		1.406	.302	9.3	1.0	3.3	6.7	2.00	0.61
2006	30	635	28.8	4.86	4.53	4858	0.97	0.03	0.01	0.05	0.25	8.90	9.28	4.86	4.48	1.11	3.26	0.29	6.52	0.37	0.03	0.31	38.71		1.408	.301	9.4	1.1	3.3	6.6	2.00	0.63
2005	30	606	29.2	4.59	4.29	4862	0.96	0.04	0.01	0.05	0.26	8.89	9.05	4.59	4.24	1.03	3.13	0.25	6.30	0.37	0.03	0.30	38.32		1.369	.295	9.2	1.0	3.2	6.4	2.02	0.63
2004	30	632	29.1	4.81	4.46	4856	0.97	0.03	0.01	0.05	0.25	8.94	9.17	4.81	4.43	1.12	3.34	0.28	6.55	0.38	0.03	0.30	38.83		1.400	.297	9.2	1.1	3.4	6.6	1.96	0.65
2003	30	612	28.7	4.73	4.40	4860	0.96	0.04	0.01	0.05	0.25	8.92	9.07	4.73	4.36	1.07	3.27	0.27	6.34	0.38	0.03	0.32	38.57		1.383	.294	9.1	1.1	3.3	6.4	1.94	0.65
2002	30	609	28.8	4.62	4.28	4852	0.96	0.04	0.02	0.06	0.25	8.92	8.92	4.62	4.24	1.04	3.35	0.30	6.47	0.36	0.03	0.31	38.46		1.376	.293	9.0	1.1	3.4	6.5	1.93	0.66
2001	30	591	28.7	4.78	4.42	4858	0.96	0.04	0.02	0.05	0.25	8.91	9.03	4.78	4.37	1.12	3.25	0.28	6.67	0.39	0.03	0.31	38.49		1.379	.296	9.1	1.1	3.3	6.7	2.05	0.69
2000	30	606	28.8	5.14	4.77	4858	0.95	0.05	0.01	0.04	0.24	8.90	9.31	5.14	4.72	1.17	3.75	0.25	6.45	0.32	0.03	0.31	39.16		1.468	.300	9.4	1.2	3.8	6.5	1.72	0.71
1999	30	585	28.8	5.08	4.71	4856	0.95	0.05	0.01	0.04	0.25	8.90	9.33	5.08	4.66	1.14	3.68	0.23	6.41	0.33	0.04	0.34	39.06		1.463	.302	9.4	1.2	3.7	6.5	1.74	0.72
1998	30	557	28.8	4.79	4.43	4864	0.94	0.06	0.02	0.05	0.26	8.93	9.15	4.79	4.40	1.04	3.38	0.22	6.56	0.33	0.04	0.33	38.71		1.403	.299	9.2	1.0	3.4	6.6	1.94	0.71
1997	28	534	28.5	4.77	4.39	4532	0.94	0.06	0.02	0.05	0.25	8.93	9.15	4.77	4.35	1.02	3.46	0.26	6.61	0.32	0.04	0.33	38.73		1.412	.301	9.2	1.0	3.5	6.7	1.91	0.71
1996	28	538	28.4	5.04	4.61	4534	0.94	0.06	0.02	0.04	0.25	8.95	9.33	5.04	4.58	1.09	3.55	0.30	6.46	0.31	0.04	0.34	39.10		1.440	.301	9.4	1.1	3.6	6.5	1.82	0.74
1995	28	552	28.3	4.85	4.45	4034	0.93	0.07	0.02	0.05	0.25	8.93	9.17	4.85	4.42	1.01	3.53	0.27	6.30	0.30	0.05	0.35	38.85		1.421	.298	9.2	1.0	3.6	6.4	1.79	0.72
Year	Tms	#P	PAge	R/G	ERA	G	GF	CG	SHO	tSho	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	IBB	SO	HBP	BK	WP	BF	ERA+	WHIP	BAbip	H9	HR9	BB9	SO9	SO/W	E
1994	28	470	28.6	4.92	4.51	3200	0.92	0.08	0.02	0.04	0.24	8.93	9.29	4.92	4.48	1.03	3.48	0.32	6.18	0.27	0.05	0.36	38.90		1.430	.300	9.4	1.0	3.5	6.2	1.78	0.74
1993	28	507	28.5	4.60	4.19	4538	0.92	0.08	0.02	0.05	0.26	8.93	9.05	4.60	4.16	0.89	3.33	0.33	5.80	0.26	0.07	0.32	38.47		1.387	.294	9.1	0.9	3.4	5.8	1.74	0.77
1992	26	441	28.6	4.12	3.75	4212	0.90	0.10	0.03	0.07	0.26	8.98	8.68	4.12	3.74	0.72	3.25	0.31	5.59	0.23	0.05	0.31	38.12		1.328	.285	8.7	0.7	3.3	5.6	1.72	0.73
1991	26	475	28.3	4.31	3.91	4208	0.91	0.09	0.03	0.06	0.27	8.98	8.69	4.31	3.90	0.80	3.32	0.29	5.80	0.22	0.06	0.33	38.20		1.338	.285	8.7	0.8	3.3	5.8	1.74	0.74
1990	26	483	28.4	4.26	3.86	4210	0.90	0.10	0.03	0.06	0.26	8.92	8.75	4.26	3.83	0.79	3.29	0.33	5.67	0.20	0.07	0.32	38.08		1.349	.287	8.8	0.8	3.3	5.7	1.72	0.76
1989	26	449	28.6	4.13	3.71	4212	0.89	0.11	0.04	0.07	0.25	8.95	8.62	4.13	3.69	0.73	3.21	0.34	5.61	0.19	0.10	0.31	37.99		1.321	.283	8.7	0.7	3.2	5.6	1.75	0.80
1988	26	438	28.5	4.14	3.73	4200	0.85	0.15	0.04	0.07	0.25	8.97	8.63	4.14	3.72	0.76	3.09	0.33	5.56	0.22	0.22	0.30	37.95		1.307	.282	8.7	0.8	3.1	5.6	1.80	0.77
1987	26	426	28.4	4.72	4.29	4210	0.87	0.13	0.03	0.05	0.23	8.93	9.00	4.72	4.26	1.06	3.42	0.31	5.96	0.20	0.08	0.32	38.46		1.391	.289	9.1	1.1	3.4	6.0	1.74	0.78