1. #1
    stevenash
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    Nasher likes the Mariners tonight run line -116 over Edwin Jackson and the Tigers.

    I've been following MLB hardball all my life, and I can't think of a bigger hamburger than Edwin Jackson.
    How the hell is this Angus Cheeseburger still pitching in the big leagues?
    I thought that was the end of Mr. Jackson when the Blow Jays cut his ass.
    The Tigers are a laughing stock I get that, but Jackson ain't going to change that.
    Why the hell would Detroit take a flyer on this guy.
    I'm sure he's a nice family guy with redeeming qualities and all, but pitching isn't one of his redeeming qualities.
    OK, you get the point.

    Jackson's been a MLB pitcher now for 17 years, SEVENTEEN!
    He's 106 and 128 in 17 years.
    He has a career ERA of 4.69 and a career WH/IP of 1.46 all of which means he allows almost 5 earned runs a game and allows 14 baserunners per nine innings, for those of you new to this, that's butt ugly.
    Want more? He's a home run waiting to happen. Coughs up over 1 per nine for seventeen season.
    He's led the league once in his dubious career, that was in losses with 18 six seasons ago.
    Yes I understand Jackson's debut with Detroit was nice, doesn't change a thing though.

    Find a solid season here, win valuable prizes.

    Year Tm W L ERA G GS IP H R ER HR BB SO WHIP H9 HR9 BB9 SO9 SO/W
    2003 LAD 2 1 2.45 4 3 22 17 6 6 2 11 19 1.273 7 0.8 4.5 7.8 1.73
    2004 LAD 2 1 7.3 8 5 24.2 31 20 20 7 11 16 1.703 11.3 2.6 4 5.8 1.45
    2005 LAD 2 2 6.28 7 6 28.2 31 22 20 2 17 13 1.674 9.7 0.6 5.3 4.1 0.76
    2006 TBD 0 0 5.45 23 1 36.1 42 27 22 2 25 27 1.844 10.4 0.5 6.2 6.7 1.08
    2007 TBD 5 15 5.76 32 31 161 195 116 103 19 88 128 1.758 10.9 1.1 4.9 7.2 1.45
    2008 TBR 14 11 4.42 32 31 183.1 199 91 90 23 77 108 1.505 9.8 1.1 3.8 5.3 1.4
    2009 DET 13 9 3.62 33 33 214 200 93 86 27 70 161 1.262 8.4 1.1 2.9 6.8 2.3
    2010 TOT 10 12 4.47 32 32 209.1 214 111 104 21 78 181 1.395 9.2 0.9 3.4 7.8 2.32
    2010 ARI 6 10 5.16 21 21 134.1 141 80 77 13 60 104 1.496 9.4 0.9 4 7 1.73
    2010 CHW 4 2 3.24 11 11 75 73 31 27 8 18 77 1.213 8.8 1 2.2 9.2 4.28
    2011 TOT 12 9 3.79 32 31 199.2 225 92 84 16 62 148 1.437 10.1 0.7 2.8 6.7 2.39
    2011 CHW 7 7 3.92 19 19 121.2 134 55 53 8 39 97 1.422 9.9 0.6 2.9 7.2 2.49
    2011 STL 5 2 3.58 13 12 78 91 37 31 8 23 51 1.462 10.5 0.9 2.7 5.9 2.22
    2012 WSN 10 11 4.03 31 31 189.2 173 90 85 23 58 168 1.218 8.2 1.1 2.8 8 2.9
    2013 CHC 8 18 4.98 31 31 175.1 197 110 97 16 59 135 1.46 10.1 0.8 3 6.9 2.29
    2014 CHC 6 15 6.33 28 27 140.2 168 105 99 18 63 123 1.642 10.7 1.2 4 7.9 1.95
    2015 TOT 4 3 3.07 47 0 55.2 44 25 19 4 21 40 1.168 7.1 0.6 3.4 6.5 1.9
    2015 CHC 2 1 3.19 23 0 31 30 14 11 0 12 23 1.355 8.7 0 3.5 6.7 1.92
    2015 ATL 2 2 2.92 24 0 24.2 14 11 8 4 9 17 0.932 5.1 1.5 3.3 6.2 1.89
    2016 TOT 5 7 5.89 21 13 84 92 56 55 14 41 61 1.583 9.9 1.5 4.4 6.5 1.49
    2016 MIA 0 1 5.91 8 0 10.2 13 7 7 2 6 7 1.781 11 1.7 5.1 5.9 1.17
    2016 SDP 5 6 5.89 13 13 73.1 79 49 48 12 35 54 1.555 9.7 1.5 4.3 6.6 1.54
    2017 TOT 5 6 5.21 16 13 76 86 53 44 20 29 60 1.513 10.2 2.4 3.4 7.1 2.07
    2017 BAL 0 0 7.2 3 0 5 11 7 4 2 4 2 3 19.8 3.6 7.2 3.6 0.5
    2017 WSN 5 6 5.07 13 13 71 75 46 40 18 25 58 1.408 9.5 2.3 3.2 7.4 2.32
    2018 OAK 6 3 3.33 17 17 92 75 37 34 12 37 68 1.217 7.3 1.2 3.6 6.7 1.84
    2019 TOT 2 5 9.35 9 6 34.2 53 42 36 13 15 23 1.962 13.8 3.4 3.9 6 1.53
    2019 TOR 1 5 11.12 8 5 28.1 49 41 35 12 13 19 2.188 15.6 3.8 4.1 6 1.46
    2019 DET 1 0 1.42 1 1 6.1 4 1 1 1 2 4 0.947 5.7 1.4 2.8 5.7 2
    17 Yrs 106 128 4.69 403 311 1927 2042 1096 1004 239 762 1479 1.455 9.5 1.1 3.6 6.9 1.94

    Now onto the game.
    Marco Gonzalez starts for Seattle, he ain't winning any Cy Young Awards anytime soon but at least he's serviceable at 12-9 ERA of 4.25 and a 1.34 WH/IP

    There's three factors I like the M's tonight.
    1) They are the better team in this spot.
    2) Gonzalez is the better pitcher in this spot.
    3) Gonzalez is a left handed starter.

    Depending on what metrics you use the Tigers are the worst offensive team versus left handed pitching.
    Detroit is dead last in runs scored vs. LHP
    Detroit has the fewest hit homers v. LHP with 23, take away Castallenos's 4 homers vs. LHP it's 19.
    NINETEEN, second fewest is Miami and it's not even close.
    Detroit is pretty much rock bottom in all categories vs. LHP

    Mariners here on the runline on the road (they are guaranteed a ninth inning at bat.
    58 to win 50 for your pal Nasher please.

  2. #2
    jjgold
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    Tremendous write up


    How do you not tail ?

  3. #3
    Roscoe_Word
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    More excellent analysis. GL, Nasher.

  4. #4
    2daBank
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    I feel like everytime I fade that hamburger (whether against him or on the over) he somehow pitches a good game, didn’t use to be that way but the last 3-4 years everytime he pops up I give it a shot and Mfer pitches a gem. Lol., gl Nasher.

  5. #5
    stevenash
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    And of course Nasher must battle from behind.

    0-2 Detroit, early though.

    Thanks to all for the kind words.

  6. #6
    Big Bear
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    I had the Mariners and Cubs tonight

  7. #7
    ThaTopMoron
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    wow mlb takes no prisoners

    i see sea was 5-0 vs tigers for season before this game

    that alone would've made me run for the hills in mlb where the most random sht happens

    i just looked and it says NY ended the season winning 16 games in a row vs baltimore? 17-2 for season... lol

    last game only won by 1 but previous 6 games vs balty they won by at least 3 runs in every game... didn't look back further than those pretty recent games

    man if u just sat back and waited to bet NY -2.5 vs balt u would've won 6 in a row then maybe said ok, im done... last game of season series the yanks may not care if they w or lose

    mlb is fukked in the head

  8. #8
    TonyPhizzle
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    All those stats for nothing lol. Did you know Edwin was 5-0 lifetime vs Seattle with a 1.88 ERA?

  9. #9
    topgame85
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    Tough time of year. No one knows anything right now.

  10. #10
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by TonyPhizzle View Post
    All those stats for nothing lol. Did you know Edwin was 5-0 lifetime vs Seattle with a 1.88 ERA?
    Yes, but that 5-0 record spans across the years, both teams have changed and changed again in that time.

    I worked for an 'office' when I was younger in college in Boston. That city (Boston) has a ton of sports fans that love to gamble on most anything. (Mo from the 'Simpsons') "if it moves you can bet on it" Too funny but too true.

    I learned a lot of things from the two bosses.

    The office used to take down meaningless games late in the MLB season when sub .500 teams were playing.
    'Buzzy' said to me "Billy (my real name) those games are crap shoots, we can't gauge them, so we prefer not to take any action of those games, plus NFL and NCAA foots are gearing up there's way too much on our tables right now"
    Made sense to me. I learned a ton of lessons from Buzzy and Jimmy, that one lesson apparently hasn't sunk in. lol

  11. #11
    jjgold
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    Can’t win them
    All

    Nashy like stats and he enjoys
    It

    Nothing wrong with it

  12. #12
    stevenash
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    ^
    Nope, I've always had a love affair with numbers and stats etc.
    Started when I was six years old.

    I love playing with SQL, databases, and excel and all that stuff.

  13. #13
    Dogball
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    I watched this game in horror. Seattle had bases loaded with the best hitter up , nothing. Seattle had first and second no outs , nothing. Seattle had runner picked off, caught stealing , pathetically inept at producing what they needed. It was the right play that didn’t win and in bases when we bet on bad teams that’s more likely to happen. Didn’t stop me from using Seattle with dodgers in a parlay ��

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