[Hman]

My six favorite CFB season win total bets

Phil Steele
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)


Which teams will outperform projections and which ones will fall short?


Here are six early selections for regular-season over/under win totals for this season. Keep in mind that Las Vegas' win-total number is only for a team's 12 regular-season games and that if any game is canceled, it becomes a no-bet.


TCU Horned Frogs (over 7.5 wins)

Recent history shows that Gary Patterson always bounces back after a down year. Following a 4-8 season in 2013, TCU went 12-1 and just missed out on a College Football Playoff berth. After a 6-7 season in 2016, the Frogs climbed as high as No. 4 in the polls in 2017 before finishing 11-3. Last year TCU was one of the most injury-plagued teams in college football, losing 20 players for the season, including top defensive player defensive tackle Ross Blaylock before the season even started (16 others missed at least four games). TCU still managed to get to a bowl and finish 7-6.
This year TCU ranks among my top units in seven of eight categories, including ranking as my No. 19 offensive line and No. 15 defensive line. I have TCU as an underdog in just one game and have three games rated as a toss-up. Even if TCU lost all four, that still adds up to eight wins. I have the Frogs as a surprise team this year and expect them to stay healthier, which should result in more wins.


Florida State Seminoles (over 7)

Florida State is 12-13 over the last two seasons and needed to reschedule a game just to get to six wins two years ago. The Seminoles are coming off their first losing season since 1976, but they are my No. 3 most improved team in 2019. Willie Taggart should be on the hot seat to start the season, but will be off of it by the end. Typically there is a learning curve for first-year head coaches, as they have to learn players' strengths and weaknesses and the players have to learn new schemes. When I talked to Taggart this spring, he felt the players were fully bought in for Year 2, and this team is deeper than the 2018 squad. I only have the Seminoles as a true underdog in two games this year with a couple of toss-up games. They should surpass this total by early November.


Vanderbilt Commodores (under 5)

Vanderbilt has star power this year with running back Ke'Shawn Vaughn, wide receiver Kalija Lipscomb and tight end Jared Pinkney all returning. However, the Commodores did allow 439 yards per game on defense last year and lost five of their top seven tacklers. On offense, Vanderbilt must replace a four-year starting quarterback and three starting linemen. The Commodores also go from No. 58 on my experience chart down to No. 107 this year. They host Georgia and LSU in SEC play, meaning most of their winnable conference games are on the road. Vanderbilt was favored in six games last year and won all six but this year faces my No. 18-rated schedule and figures to be favored in just three or four games, so I think it will be difficult to get to six wins again.


Ohio Bobcats (over 7.5)

At FanDuel Sportsbook
Ohio rarely returns a lot of starters, so I am not concerned that only 10 starters are back this year. The Bobcats do return quarterback Nathan Rourke, so the offense is in good hands once again. Last year they lost their top five defensive linemen and allowed 38.3 points per game in the first four games. But they allowed just 18.6 PPG over the final nine games, and this season they have a veteran defense. The MAC East is in a rebuilding mode overall, and Ohio has three MAC road games against teams that were a combined 11-25 last year. The other MAC road game is against a rebuilding Buffalo team that lost five top players to either the NFL or transfer. I have the Bobcats favored in 10 games, as they face my No. 127 schedule -- and that gives us some breathing room.


Nebraska Cornhuskers (over 8.5)

The total seems high for a team that won just four games last year, but the fact they are my No. 1 most improved team in the country in my magazinemight have something to do with that. Last year Florida was my No. 1 most improved team and went from 4-7 in 2017 to finishing No. 7 in the final AP poll. Nebraska head coach Scott Frost inherited a pass-happy offense and players had to learn a new offense with new blocking schemes. In the first six games, the Huskers scored just 23.3 PPG and were 0-6; over the final six games, they put up 36.6 PPG and went 4-2, with the two losses coming by a combined eight points. They are in the second year of the offense and have quarterback Adrian Martinez back. The schedule gets easier, as they avoid Penn State, Michigan and Michigan State out of the East and get an Ohio State team they almost beat in Columbus last year at home. Their toughest foes in the West are Iowa, Wisconsin and Northwestern, and they face all three in Lincoln. I have Nebraska winning the West and getting to double-digit wins.


South Florida Bulls(under 8)

At FanDuel Sportsbook
Last year, despite a 7-0 start and a No. 21 ranking, South Florida was one of the most flawed teams in college football. USF had been outgained by Georgia Tech 602-426, trailed lowly Illinois 19-7 late in the third quarter and then was out-first-downed 24-9 by a weak East Carolina team. USF also trailed Tulsa 24-10 in the fourth quarter and then beat Connecticut, a team that lost its AAC games by an average score of 53-21, by just eight points. The Bulls faced six bowl teams down the stretch and went 0-6, losing by an average of 19 PPG. This year the Bulls are an improved team, but I have them as an underdog in six games heading into the year, and they face seven teams that were in a bowl game last year and two other teams that made my most improved list.

[G Anon Dropout]

Good list.

[pinnacle420]

Good read H!!!! I like it!!!

[TheMoneyShot]

TCU has always been a strong program. Damn... Over 7.5 seems like a no brainer.

[BigdaddyQH]

TCU lost starting CB Noah Daniels and PK Cole Bruce. With games at Purdue, Iowa State, Oklahoma state, and Oklahoma, plus home games against Texas and Baylor, I can see TCU having a better chance of losing 5 games than of losing 4. Purdue will be critical for them.

I think 7 wins is the right number for Florida State, a team that has displayed little or no discipline of late. If they lose to Boise State, they may not win 6 games, much less 7.

Vandy is going to need some help getting to 5 wins. They lose too much on defense.

Nebraska may win more away games than home games. Asking them to win 9 games is a lot, even with the easy schedule they play.

I don't really know what to think about USF. They return 9 starters on offense, but HC Charlie Strong has always been a huge under-achiever, as last season proved. I can see why Steele likes them to go under the total, with games against Wisconsin, Cincinnati, Memphis and UCF. They had better get to 8 wins before game 10.

I do not follow MAC football close enough to render an opinion on Ohio.

[49er41580]

Florida st under

[ElJefe305]

Florida st under

Only thing that scares me is Briles as OC. He can maneuver around that terrible OL....then again Blackmon their QB is pretty trash so it's a toss up IMO

[Regul8er]

Im seeing South Florida at 6.5. He must be paying ridiculous vig to get under 8

[jtoler]

Only thing that scares me is Briles as OC. He can maneuver around that terrible OL....then again Blackmon their QB is pretty trash so it's a toss up IMO

blackmon is trash? I thought he looked good thrown in as a true frosh couple yrs ago. I think he's gonna have a good yr if the o-line is at least decent with decent wrs and rb