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Best value bets to win the Heisman 🏈
Steele: Best value bets to win the Heisman
Phil Steele
ESPN INSIDER ($ MATERIAL)
The past four years have been rather interesting when it comes to the Heisman Trophy race. Players who were the clear-cut favorite midseason or even late in the year have come up short in the end. Neither of the top two preseason favorites has won the Heisman in any of the past four seasons. The eventual winner each of those years came from one of the top four teams in the polls late in November. Three of the past four Heisman winners were on teams that reached the College Football Playoff.
In 2015, Ezekiel Elliott of Ohio State, Nick Chubb of Georgia, Cody Kesslerof USC, Trevone Boykin of TCU and Dak Prescott of Mississippi State were the preseason Heisman favorites. Derrick Henry was 16-1 coming into the season but took home the trophy for an Alabama team that was No. 2 in the country heading into the playoff.
In 2016, Clemson's Deshaun Watson and Stanford's Christian McCaffrey were preseason favorites. Louisville's Lamar Jackson, who had thrown for 1,840 yards with a 54.7 completion percentage and a 12-8 TD/INT ratio the year prior, was a dark horse but won the Heisman that year. Louisville finished the season 9-4, but the Cardinals had been 9-1 and No. 3 in the polls late in the year.
In 2017, Jackson and USC's Sam Darnold were the preseason favorites to take home the hardware. Baker Mayfield wasn't exactly a dark horse at 8-1 odds at the start of the year, but after throwing for 4,627 yards (70.5 completion percentage, 43 TDs, 6 INTs), Mayfield won the award for an Oklahoma team that was No. 2 in the country heading into the playoff.
Last year it was Stanford's Bryce Love and Alabama's Tua Tagovailoawho were favorites to take home the award. Tagovailoa had the honor seemingly locked up by midseason, but Oklahoma quarterback Kyler Murray, a long shot heading into the year, passed for 4,361 yards and ran for 1,001 yards (54 total touchdowns) and won the Heisman. Oklahoma would enter the playoff at No. 4 and met Alabama in the semifinals.
Here are six players who are worth a wager in 2019.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
QB Trevor Lawrence, Clemson Tigers (3-1)
I can make a case for not wagering on Lawrence since he has short odds as one of the preseason favorites. However, Lawrence dissected the Alabama defense in the title game last year and will put up huge passing numbers again this season for a Clemson team that will be favored by at least 17 points in every regular-season game this year. My computer is projecting Clemson to put up 47.2 points per game and 307 yards per game passing. Lawrence will also be playing on a team that figures to be No. 1 in the AP poll the entire regular season.
QB Jalen Hurts, Oklahoma Sooners (10-1)
Hurts is known more as a running threat, but the same could be said for Murray last year after he was used as a running quarterback in the Oklahoma offense in 2017. Hurts improved his passing last year, hitting on 73 percent of his passes for eight touchdowns and two interceptions. And head coach Lincoln Riley is developing a reputation as a quarterback whisperer, having guided two straight transfer quarterbacks to the Heisman. Hurts is more accomplished than the last two Sooner signal-callers were, as he is 24-2 as a starter. Hurts could become the third straight Oklahoma quarterback to take home the trophy.
QB Jake Fromm, Georgia Bulldogs (20-1)
Georgia will still be a run-oriented team in 2019, and Fromm does lose his top five receivers from last year. I still put him in the mix because he completed 67 percent of his passes for 2,761 yards, 30 touchdowns and just six picks last season. Fromm fits the profile of a quarterback on a top-five team, and I have the Bulldogs favored in all 12 regular-season games, which would put them in the top four in the AP poll. He also has some marquee games against Notre Dame, Florida, Auburn and Texas A&M, who are all in the top 10 of my Power Poll. There is also a potential matchup against Alabama, a team Georgia is 0-2 against the past two years despite trailing for only a total of 1:04 in those games. Fromm threw for 301 yards in the SEC title game last year, and if he guides an undefeated Georgia to a win over Bama, that could give him the last-second impression needed to win the Heisman.
QB Shea Patterson, Michigan Wolverines (20-1)
New offensive coordinator Josh Gattis will implement a spread offense, which will fit Patterson like a glove. I am very high on the Wolverines this year, and they are the early favorite in all 12 games this season. Michigan has my fourth-rated offensive line in the country in front of Patterson and a dangerous receiving corps. I expect Michigan to run the table in the regular season and make the playoff. Patterson will have marquee games versus Notre Dame, Michigan State and Ohio State that will be fresh in the Heisman voters' minds.
QB Sam Ehlinger, Texas Longhorns (20-1)
Ehlinger guided Texas to a couple of big wins over Oklahoma and Georgia last season. He is the team leader and had 16 rushing touchdowns to go with 25 passing touchdowns last year. He will have plenty of games to vault up the Heisman charts, as the Longhorns face LSU in Week 2 and plenty of tough foes in Big 12 play. Texas finished last year No. 9 in the polls, and I only have the Horns as an underdog in a couple of games this year. If Texas wins the Big 12 title, Ehlinger will be the main reason why, making him worth a look at 20-1.
QB Joe Burrow, LSU Tigers (200-1)
If you are looking for a true dark-horse candidate, Burrow would be the guy. Burrow joined the team just before fall camp last year and was learning a new system. He was used as a game manager for most of the season and averaged only 192 yards per game with seven touchdowns and four interceptions in his first 10 games. LSU took the reins off Burrow down the stretch, and he averaged 324 yards per game with a 9-1 TD-INT ratio over the final three games. LSU, whose offensive line and receivers are among the best in the country, is moving to the spread offense this year, which will help Burrow's stats. The Tigers are currently the favorite in 11 of their 12 games, and if Burrow leads an upset win over Alabama on Nov. 9, he could vault to the top of the charts. Great odds here at 200-1.
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