1. 08-03-19 10:51 AM #1
    RangeFinder
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    This is the time to be careful with inflated moneylines in baseball

    There are a lot of stiff prices this time of year and I see rookies get buried with these over inflated moneylines yearly.

    Example the Phillies -305 to -330 (Nola) and CWS (Detweiler) matchup. They played a 15 inning game last night not to mention anytime a lefty hits the hill (Detweiler) anything can happen.

    Number opened up at Phillies -255 and public money has shot this one up to a point where the White Sox are +EV. At this writing you can get +275 and up. This is where the very astute advantage player steps in.

    You can figure to win this play around 30% of the time. At +275 you only need to win 26% to show a profit and thus you have a mathematical advantage over the sports book. Do they care? Not really. They are so over loaded with Phillies money they are willing to give the store away to anyone who wants to take a stab at the White Sox.

    Just giving heads up of some strategy to impose late in the MLB year.

    Yes I fired on the White Sox and the lefty.
    Last edited by RangeFinder; 08-03-19 at 05:38 PM. Reason: Grammar
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  2. 08-03-19 03:34 PM #2
    RangeFinder
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    Some value seekers have taken the number down a tick but still good value at +270 or better.

    Keep in mind this play only has about a 30% hit rate but long term profitable.
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  3. 08-03-19 03:34 PM #3
    lakerboy
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    Time to bet dogs. That's why I got back in the game
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  4. 08-03-19 05:34 PM #4
    RangeFinder
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    Quote Originally Posted by lakerboy View Post
    Time to bet dogs. That's why I got back in the game
    When it offers +EV I agree
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  5. 08-03-19 06:38 PM #5
    jjgold
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    Favs always win August and Sept
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  6. 08-04-19 01:47 AM #6
    KVB
    It's not what they bring...
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    Range, the Contrarian Fund forecat is licking his chops just thinking about it...

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