1. #1
    jjgold
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    Nadal vs Thiem French Final : The One Guy Nadal Never Wants To See

    Thiem one of rare guys ever that can hang with Nadal on a regular basis

    Nadal will have to play perfect match to win like usual vs Thiem the next best clay courter

    Nadal on record recently called Thiem his biggest clay-court rival

  2. #2
    pavyracer
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    What's the head to head record coach?
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  3. #3
    jjgold
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    No idea

    I know thiem beat him four times on clay which is a ton vs Nadal Many other losses were battles

  4. #4
    navyblue81
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    I donít know how much Thiem will have in the tank. Four straight days of matches while Nadal has played 6 total sets in 6 days. I would normally say Thiem has a shot, but I could see Thiem having a hard time recuperating from beating Novak and getting crushed tomorrow. Cooler weather should help him as Nadal likes it more dry and hot so he gets a higher bounce.

  5. #5
    unlearn
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    Nadal-6 games easy $
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  6. #6
    RudyRuetigger
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    we like thiem here

  7. #7
    pavyracer
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    I don't think Nadal will break a sweat if it's cold weather. He likes it hot and humid so his hair get sweaty.
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  8. #8
    navyblue81
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    Iíll prolly play it live. I think youíll be able to tell after a game or two how the match is going to go. After 2 or 3 games last year, you knew it was over.

  9. #9
    jjgold
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    Good point Thiem is worn down and Nadal very fresh


    Thatís usually in important in tennis whatís the line Iím on the road picking up pool supplies

  10. #10
    Snowball
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    Thiem is only 25 and will not be worn down at all.

    If Nadal is going to win he will have to bring his A+ game.

  11. #11
    RudyRuetigger
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    Good point Thiem is worn down and Nadal very fresh


    That’s usually in important in tennis what’s the line I’m on the road picking up pool supplies
    let me know your price of chlorine per 100lbs

  12. #12
    SamsNCharge99
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    Nadal won last year 3-0

    we keep trying to find ways to beat nadal. But nadal IS THAT GOOD
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  13. #13
    navyblue81
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snowball View Post
    Thiem is only 25 and will not be worn down at all.

    If Nadal is going to win he will have to bring his A+ game.
    Physically I agree. I think heíll be okay. Mentally is the concern. You just beat the number one player in the world in 5 grueling sets over two days and now have to beat the best player in the history of this tournament one day later. Itís like trying to beat Bama one week as an underdog and then recuperate and try and beat an ever better Clemson team the next. Good luck.

  14. #14
    Snowball
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    Thiem is 4-8 vs Nadal so it's not like he CAN'T win.
    The line is right around -435 with perhaps some edging up to -450/-475 max

  15. #15
    homie1975
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    RAFA is -430 on 5Dimes


  16. #16
    homie1975
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    Good point Thiem is worn down and Nadal very fresh


    That’s usually in important in tennis what’s the line I’m on the road picking up pool supplies
    Rafa is 33 yrs old and many years of wear and tear.

    Thiem is 25 yrs young. fresh muscles.

    even on same amount of rest, RAFA would have been a huge fave

    Coach stop trying to take away from Rafa's greatness. Stop it !!!

  17. #17
    Baraldsson
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    Thiem one of rare guys ever that can hang with Nadal on a regular basis

    Nadal will have to play perfect match to win like usual vs Thiem the next best clay courter

    Nadal on record recently called Thiem his biggest clay-court rival
    Thiem is good but Nadal is Nadal.

  18. #18
    jjgold
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    I wonder how the conditions are going to be?

    Wind favors Thiem

  19. #19
    pavyracer
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    I wonder how the conditions are going to be?

    Wind favors Thiem
    DAY

    68įHI
    RealFeelģ 72į
    Precipitation 55%

    Mostly cloudy with a passing shower



    • Winds from the
    • ESE 5 mph
    • Gusts: 8 mph






    • Max UV Index: 4 (Moderate)
    • Thunderstorms: 20%
    • Precipitation: 0.04 in
    • Rain: 0.04 in
    • Snow: 0 in
    • Ice: 0 in
    • Hours of Precipitation: 1 hrs
    • Hours of Rain: 1 hrs

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  20. #20
    navyblue81
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    Weather favors Thiem. Cooler and damp means ball wonít bounce as high. High bounces and fast conditions are where Nadal kills you. His worst matches have come in those conditions (including his loss to Soderling)

  21. #21
    unlearn
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    Weather overrated. Guy will be playing for his 3rd day in a row vs a guy who has won every final he ever played on Chatrier. Waste of $ betting on a cuck like Thiem to win here
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  22. #22
    navyblue81
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    +350 to me not enough value. I wouldnít take Thiem unless I could get him at 6-1 or better.

  23. #23
    lakerboy
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    I'm on thiem

  24. #24
    asiagambler
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    Quote Originally Posted by navyblue81 View Post
    Weather favors Thiem. Cooler and damp means ball won’t bounce as high. High bounces and fast conditions are where Nadal kills you. His worst matches have come in those conditions (including his loss to Soderling)
    I don't think it's right to say Nadal likes fast conditions. His game is based on running everything down and teeing up every shot. He prefers it slow and predictable. But it's not like fast conditions would bother him too much after all, he's won majors on every surface and clay is clay so it can only get so fast at normal altitude.

    With all that said, I'll probably bet Thiem anyway.

  25. #25
    Snowball
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    The last Frenchman to win French Open was Joakim Noah's father, Yannick Noah in 1983.

  26. #26
    navyblue81
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    Quote Originally Posted by asiagambler View Post
    I don't think it's right to say Nadal likes fast conditions. His game is based on running everything down and teeing up every shot. He prefers it slow and predictable. But it's not like fast conditions would bother him too much after all, he's won majors on every surface and clay is clay so it can only get so fast at normal altitude.
    With all that said, I'll probably bet Thiem anyway.
    They went over it in detail on the broadcast the other day and why when it's hard and fast, Nadal is so unbeatable. Has something to do with the higher bounce. I don't know the science of it all, but they said on tv that cooler and softer conditions hurt Nadal, while dry and fast suits his game.

    I would bet Thiem if there was better value. Anyone less than 6-1 value on Nadal is not worth it.

  27. #27
    DrunkHorseplayer
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    Nadal beat him in last year's final and Thiem has played four days in a row whereas Nadal has rested three of the past four days; Nadal or nothing.

  28. #28
    asiagambler
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    Quote Originally Posted by navyblue81 View Post
    They went over it in detail on the broadcast the other day and why when it's hard and fast, Nadal is so unbeatable. Has something to do with the higher bounce. I don't know the science of it all, but they said on tv that cooler and softer conditions hurt Nadal, while dry and fast suits his game.

    I would bet Thiem if there was better value. Anyone less than 6-1 value on Nadal is not worth it.
    Well I think it depends on the opponent and the higher bounce does play to his benefit, I do agree with that. But in general, his game is essentially made for slow surfaces. Looking at his titles, he's obviously dominated clay courts in his entire career but for what it's worth, he's "only" won 5 titles at Madrid, where courts typically play a bit faster. Compare that to Monte Carlo (11), Rome (9) and Barcelona (11) (and of course Roland Garros).

  29. #29
    jjgold
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    Nadal 3-1?

  30. #30
    Snowball
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    i have a thiem future so that's why i took this "hedge"
    (i hedged with Joker also and it cost me so didn't want to lay -435 now)

    but the bet makes sense as a stand-alone.
    have to figure Nadal, let's be serious..
    Thiem Games Won Under 16.5 (-110)

  31. #31
    Plaza23
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    Rafa is 81-2 in his career at French Open. Thiem has no shot here. Nobody does except maybe peak Novak.

    Rafa, on this court best of 5...nobody can beat him. Thiem may play amazing one set (like US Open where he won 6-0 vs Rafa in set 1 but still lost the match), but he canít sustain it over 5 sets. He really wasnít good vs Novak, made a ton of errors.

    Iím surprised Thiem has better odds than Federer. This wonít be close.

    Iíll take Under 12.5 games won for Thiem,

  32. #32
    Grivas_Digeni
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    Quote Originally Posted by Plaza23 View Post
    Rafa is 81-2 in his career at French Open. Thiem has no shot here. Nobody does except maybe peak Novak.

    Rafa, on this court best of 5...nobody can beat him. Thiem may play amazing one set (like US Open where he won 6-0 vs Rafa in set 1 but still lost the match), but he canít sustain it over 5 sets. He really wasnít good vs Novak, made a ton of errors.

    Iím surprised Thiem has better odds than Federer. This wonít be close.

    Iíll take Under 12.5 games won for Thiem,
    Why take under 12.5 if you can take over 16.5?




    lol joking aside: if anyone disagrees with Plaza23, feel free to take my points

    https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...final-atp.html


    Thiem ML +390
    Thiem 3-0 +2000

  33. #33
    Grivas_Digeni
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    Quote Originally Posted by navyblue81 View Post
    They went over it in detail on the broadcast the other day and why when it's hard and fast, Nadal is so unbeatable. Has something to do with the higher bounce. I don't know the science of it all, but they said on tv that cooler and softer conditions hurt Nadal, while dry and fast suits his game.

    I would bet Thiem if there was better value. Anyone less than 6-1 value on Nadal is not worth it.
    You can wait until Nadal wins the first set 6-4 and get 9-1

  34. #34
    Grivas_Digeni
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snowball View Post
    i have a thiem future so that's why i took this "hedge"
    (i hedged with Joker also and it cost me so didn't want to lay -435 now)

    but the bet makes sense as a stand-alone.
    have to figure Nadal, let's be serious..
    Thiem Games Won Under 16.5 (-110)
    Thin ice. Hedges like this make one's hair gray. What about Thiem winning the first set 6-4 or worse yet 7-5?

  35. #35
    navyblue81
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grivas_Digeni View Post
    You can wait until Nadal wins the first set 6-4 and get 9-1
    Haha if Thiem loses the first set the route is on.

    Three golden rules Iíve learned over the years:
    1) Never bet against Bellichick
    2) Never bet against Saban
    3) Never bet against Nadal at the French

    You live by those rules and youíll save yourself lots of $$$.

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