[jjgold]

Thiem one of rare guys ever that can hang with Nadal on a regular basis

Nadal will have to play perfect match to win like usual vs Thiem the next best clay courter

Nadal on record recently called Thiem his biggest clay-court rival

[pavyracer]

What's the head to head record coach?

[jjgold]

No idea

I know thiem beat him four times on clay which is a ton vs Nadal Many other losses were battles

[navyblue81]

I don’t know how much Thiem will have in the tank. Four straight days of matches while Nadal has played 6 total sets in 6 days. I would normally say Thiem has a shot, but I could see Thiem having a hard time recuperating from beating Novak and getting crushed tomorrow. Cooler weather should help him as Nadal likes it more dry and hot so he gets a higher bounce.

[unlearn]

Nadal-6 games easy $

[RudyRuetigger]

we like thiem here

[pavyracer]

I don't think Nadal will break a sweat if it's cold weather. He likes it hot and humid so his hair get sweaty.

[navyblue81]

I’ll prolly play it live. I think you’ll be able to tell after a game or two how the match is going to go. After 2 or 3 games last year, you knew it was over.

[jjgold]

Good point Thiem is worn down and Nadal very fresh


That’s usually in important in tennis what’s the line I’m on the road picking up pool supplies

[Snowball]

Thiem is only 25 and will not be worn down at all.

If Nadal is going to win he will have to bring his A+ game.

[RudyRuetigger]

Good point Thiem is worn down and Nadal very fresh


That’s usually in important in tennis what’s the line I’m on the road picking up pool supplies

let me know your price of chlorine per 100lbs

[SamsNCharge99]

Nadal won last year 3-0

we keep trying to find ways to beat nadal. But nadal IS THAT GOOD

[navyblue81]

Thiem is only 25 and will not be worn down at all.

If Nadal is going to win he will have to bring his A+ game.

Physically I agree. I think he’ll be okay. Mentally is the concern. You just beat the number one player in the world in 5 grueling sets over two days and now have to beat the best player in the history of this tournament one day later. It’s like trying to beat Bama one week as an underdog and then recuperate and try and beat an ever better Clemson team the next. Good luck.

[Snowball]

Thiem is 4-8 vs Nadal so it's not like he CAN'T win.
The line is right around -435 with perhaps some edging up to -450/-475 max

[homie1975]

RAFA is -430 on 5Dimes

[homie1975]

Good point Thiem is worn down and Nadal very fresh


That’s usually in important in tennis what’s the line I’m on the road picking up pool supplies

Rafa is 33 yrs old and many years of wear and tear.

Thiem is 25 yrs young. fresh muscles.

even on same amount of rest, RAFA would have been a huge fave

Coach stop trying to take away from Rafa's greatness. Stop it !!!

[Baraldsson]

Thiem one of rare guys ever that can hang with Nadal on a regular basis

Nadal will have to play perfect match to win like usual vs Thiem the next best clay courter

Nadal on record recently called Thiem his biggest clay-court rival

Thiem is good but Nadal is Nadal.

[jjgold]

I wonder how the conditions are going to be?

Wind favors Thiem

[pavyracer]

I wonder how the conditions are going to be?

Wind favors Thiem

DAY

68°HI
RealFeel® 72°
Precipitation 55%

Mostly cloudy with a passing shower

• Winds from the
  
• ESE 5 mph
  
• Gusts: 8 mph

• Max UV Index: 4 (Moderate)
• Thunderstorms: 20%
• Precipitation: 0.04 in
• Rain: 0.04 in
• Snow: 0 in
• Ice: 0 in
• Hours of Precipitation: 1 hrs
• Hours of Rain: 1 hrs

[navyblue81]

Weather favors Thiem. Cooler and damp means ball won’t bounce as high. High bounces and fast conditions are where Nadal kills you. His worst matches have come in those conditions (including his loss to Soderling)

[unlearn]

Weather overrated. Guy will be playing for his 3rd day in a row vs a guy who has won every final he ever played on Chatrier. Waste of $ betting on a cuck like Thiem to win here

[navyblue81]

+350 to me not enough value. I wouldn’t take Thiem unless I could get him at 6-1 or better.

[lakerboy]

I'm on thiem

[asiagambler]

Weather favors Thiem. Cooler and damp means ball won’t bounce as high. High bounces and fast conditions are where Nadal kills you. His worst matches have come in those conditions (including his loss to Soderling)

I don't think it's right to say Nadal likes fast conditions. His game is based on running everything down and teeing up every shot. He prefers it slow and predictable. But it's not like fast conditions would bother him too much after all, he's won majors on every surface and clay is clay so it can only get so fast at normal altitude.

With all that said, I'll probably bet Thiem anyway.

[Snowball]

The last Frenchman to win French Open was Joakim Noah's father, Yannick Noah in 1983.

[navyblue81]

I don't think it's right to say Nadal likes fast conditions. His game is based on running everything down and teeing up every shot. He prefers it slow and predictable. But it's not like fast conditions would bother him too much after all, he's won majors on every surface and clay is clay so it can only get so fast at normal altitude.
With all that said, I'll probably bet Thiem anyway.

They went over it in detail on the broadcast the other day and why when it's hard and fast, Nadal is so unbeatable. Has something to do with the higher bounce. I don't know the science of it all, but they said on tv that cooler and softer conditions hurt Nadal, while dry and fast suits his game.

I would bet Thiem if there was better value. Anyone less than 6-1 value on Nadal is not worth it.

[DrunkHorseplayer]

Nadal beat him in last year's final and Thiem has played four days in a row whereas Nadal has rested three of the past four days; Nadal or nothing.

[asiagambler]

They went over it in detail on the broadcast the other day and why when it's hard and fast, Nadal is so unbeatable. Has something to do with the higher bounce. I don't know the science of it all, but they said on tv that cooler and softer conditions hurt Nadal, while dry and fast suits his game.

I would bet Thiem if there was better value. Anyone less than 6-1 value on Nadal is not worth it.

Well I think it depends on the opponent and the higher bounce does play to his benefit, I do agree with that. But in general, his game is essentially made for slow surfaces. Looking at his titles, he's obviously dominated clay courts in his entire career but for what it's worth, he's "only" won 5 titles at Madrid, where courts typically play a bit faster. Compare that to Monte Carlo (11), Rome (9) and Barcelona (11) (and of course Roland Garros).

[jjgold]

Nadal 3-1?

[Snowball]

i have a thiem future so that's why i took this "hedge"
(i hedged with Joker also and it cost me so didn't want to lay -435 now)

but the bet makes sense as a stand-alone.
have to figure Nadal, let's be serious..
Thiem Games Won Under 16.5 (-110)

[Plaza23]

Rafa is 81-2 in his career at French Open. Thiem has no shot here. Nobody does except maybe peak Novak.

Rafa, on this court best of 5...nobody can beat him. Thiem may play amazing one set (like US Open where he won 6-0 vs Rafa in set 1 but still lost the match), but he can’t sustain it over 5 sets. He really wasn’t good vs Novak, made a ton of errors.

I’m surprised Thiem has better odds than Federer. This won’t be close.

I’ll take Under 12.5 games won for Thiem,

[Grivas_Digeni]

Rafa is 81-2 in his career at French Open. Thiem has no shot here. Nobody does except maybe peak Novak.

Rafa, on this court best of 5...nobody can beat him. Thiem may play amazing one set (like US Open where he won 6-0 vs Rafa in set 1 but still lost the match), but he can’t sustain it over 5 sets. He really wasn’t good vs Novak, made a ton of errors.

I’m surprised Thiem has better odds than Federer. This won’t be close.

I’ll take Under 12.5 games won for Thiem,

Why take under 12.5 if you can take over 16.5?




lol joking aside: if anyone disagrees with Plaza23, feel free to take my points

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...final-atp.html


Thiem ML +390
Thiem 3-0 +2000

[Grivas_Digeni]

They went over it in detail on the broadcast the other day and why when it's hard and fast, Nadal is so unbeatable. Has something to do with the higher bounce. I don't know the science of it all, but they said on tv that cooler and softer conditions hurt Nadal, while dry and fast suits his game.

I would bet Thiem if there was better value. Anyone less than 6-1 value on Nadal is not worth it.

You can wait until Nadal wins the first set 6-4 and get 9-1

[Grivas_Digeni]

i have a thiem future so that's why i took this "hedge"
(i hedged with Joker also and it cost me so didn't want to lay -435 now)

but the bet makes sense as a stand-alone.
have to figure Nadal, let's be serious..
Thiem Games Won Under 16.5 (-110)

Thin ice. Hedges like this make one's hair gray. What about Thiem winning the first set 6-4 or worse yet 7-5?

[navyblue81]

You can wait until Nadal wins the first set 6-4 and get 9-1

Haha if Thiem loses the first set the route is on.

Three golden rules I’ve learned over the years:
1) Never bet against Bellichick
2) Never bet against Saban
3) Never bet against Nadal at the French

You live by those rules and you’ll save yourself lots of $$$.