2019 NBA playoffs: Best bets for Bucks-Raptors Game 6 🏀
2019 NBA playoffs: Best bets for Bucks-Raptors Game 6
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With the 2019 NBA playoffs in full swing, there are plenty of betting opportunities every night. Our experts -- Joe Fortenbaugh, Preston Johnson, Doug Kezirian and Jordan Schultz -- will be here each day throughout the postseason, giving their best bets for the upcoming games.
Game 6 line: Raptors -2.5 Game 6 over/under: 212.5 Fortenbaugh: Toronto has done an exceptional job of flipping this matchup on its head by making the necessary adjustments on a game-by-game basis to put itself in position for a series win as early as Saturday night. Case in point, take a look at how the pace metric has decreased throughout the course of this series: Game 1: 100.7
Game 2: 101.7
Game 3: 99.6
Game 4: 95.9
Game 5: 92.6
This has caused a significant problem for a Milwaukee team that ranked fifth in the NBA in pace (103.61) during the regular season, as opposed to a Raptors unit that ranked 15th (100.55). Toronto is controlling the tempo and, thus, controlling the series. I'd like to believe that the Bucks will find a way to force a Game 7, but head coach Mike Budenholzer has so far proven incapable of making the necessary adjustments.
Pick: Raptors -2.5
Kezirian: In its simplest form, the Raptors have made better adjustments. Utilizing Kawhi Leonard as the primary defender on Giannis Antetokounmpohas produced ideal results and Toronto has won three straight games since that move. Plus, the defensive alignments have frustrated Giannis and he has compounded the problem with turnovers and missed free throws. Though Malcolm Brogdon's move to the starting lineup did strengthen that unit, the bench suffered drastically in Game 5. Milwaukee received a combined 15 points from its reserves, including three scoreless players. I just don't see how any of this changes significantly or the Bucks respond to adversity on the road.
Fortenbaugh: I like Milwaukee, but not at a price of -280 to defeat 2014 NBA champion Kawhi Leonard and the Raptors. Looking back at the first two rounds of this year's postseason, what have we learned about the Bucks that we didn't already know? The Pistons, with an injured Blake Griffin, were completely overmatched and posed no threat whatsoever during the opening salvo. Meanwhile, the Celtics were supposed to prove a formidable challenge, but Boston ate itself from within and bowed out after only five games. How much of that do we attribute to Milwaukee and how much do we assign to the opposition?
Toronto is a strong defensive squad that just survived a seven-game thriller against a quality opponent in Philadelphia. Gassed? Possibly. But the Raptors are battle-tested, highly effective when playing on the road and possess the balance and depth necessary to create some matchup problems for a Milwaukee squad that just watched Boston shoot a pathetic 37.7 percent from the floor over the final four games of their series. Had the Celtics produced that statistic during the 82-game regular season, Boston would have ranked dead last in the NBA in field-goal percentage.
Pick: Raptors +240
Johnson: I have been pro-Raptors throughout the playoffs and have no reason to change my tune now. I recommended a wager on them to win the Eastern Conference, and we are getting similar prices available now in the market. However, my projections have the Bucks advancing more often than the Raptors. If you asked me who I think wins the East, it would be Milwaukee. But that is what makes betting and the price relative to the likelihood of an event occurring so important. I believe the Bucks advance 53.5 percent of the time, which is a true line of -115. That means that I have Toronto advancing 46.5 percent of the time -- or +115 -- yet we are being offered +240. This is a significant edge.
I certainly could be slow to the rise of the Bucks as a whole. They remind me of the first iteration of the Steve Kerr Warriors, with a first-year coach and scheme that caught the league by storm. That Warriors squad wound up defeating a depleted Cleveland team in the Finals. There certainly are a few numbers and metrics showing similarities between the Bucks and the Warriors, but as a whole they aren't on the same level.
The Raptors are also really good. While the 76ers took them to the brink, it required playing their starters 40-plus minutes per game and Joel Embiid over 45 minutes. I think most people would agree that Philadelphia's starting five is one of the best in the NBA (and its bench is one of the worst). I wouldn't get too caught up in Toronto "struggling" against a 76ers team that ran its elite starting five for the majority of the game. The Raptors' strength in numbers and depth was mitigated in this case, but against Mike Budenholzer and the Bucks' rotation of nine to 10 players, Toronto will match up well. One example is Raptors stud reserve Fred VanVleet, who struggled against the Sixers' size and the fact that Philadelphia didn't even play a backup point guard the entire series. I expect VanVleet to make a positive impact against the likes of George Hill, Sterling Brown and even Malcolm Brogdon if he continues to play for Milwaukee off of the bench.
Toronto +1.5 series games won is an option as well if you are concerned about the series going seven games and the finale being played on the road in Milwaukee. Both are viable options worth betting.
Pick: Raptors +240
Schultz: Milwaukee will control this series by deploying Giannis Antetokounmpo in the open floor to punish the Raptors. The Bucks have been an offensive revelation this season, ranking first in efficiency by relying on the Greek Freak's playmaking ability. Plus, Khris Middleton, Pat Connaughton, Malcolm Brogdon and Brook Lopez all are knockdown shooters.
Toronto has the dominant Kawhi Leonard and an ideal complement in Pascal Siakam, but the lack of a bench will become more and more of a factor as the series progresses. The Bucks are deeper, more talented and have home-court advantage to boot.
The Raptors hope to do to the Bucks what the Celtics did in Game 1: catch them sleeping on their home floor. Consider that learning on the job, however. Antetokounmpo has shown a remarkable ability to lead during moments of vulnerability -- and the Bucks' ability to consistently generate stops can help mitigate any offensive woes. Milwaukee ranks third in defensive efficiency and first in both paint and rim defense.
Pick: Bucks -280
Kezirian: Come on down, because the price is right. I believe Milwaukee will win this series, but I also think -280 is too steep. Toronto still has Kawhi Leonard, who has been an offensive force this postseason, and sufficient shooting around him. We must also account for Toronto's exceptional defenders. Leonard is as good as they come, especially complementing the impressive length of Pascal Siakam, Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka. Plus, the backcourt of Kyle Lowry and Danny Green is solid on defense.
The Bucks are 8-1 ATS this postseason, but I am most impressed with their two victories in Boston. Both were tight games at halftime and the role players showed poise, which was a question mark for this young team. Ultimately, it will come down to making outside shots. In Toronto's four wins over the Sixers, Philadelphia shot 38-for-121 (31 percent) from 3-point range. The Bucks were actually middle of the pack during the regular season (35 percent) but had the second-most attempts per game (38.2). No firm play here for the series.
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2019 NBA playoffs: Best bets for Bucks-Raptors Game 6 🏀
Fortenbaugh: I like Milwaukee, but not at a price of -280 to defeat 2014 NBA champion Kawhi Leonard and the Raptors. Looking back at the first two rounds of this year's postseason, what have we learned about the Bucks that we didn't already know? The Pistons, with an injured Blake Griffin, were completely overmatched and posed no threat whatsoever during the opening salvo. Meanwhile, the Celtics were supposed to prove a formidable challenge, but Boston ate itself from within and bowed out after only five games. How much of that do we attribute to Milwaukee and how much do we assign to the opposition?
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