With the 2019 NBA playoffs in full swing, there are plenty of betting opportunities every night. Our experts -- Joe Fortenbaugh, Preston Johnson, Doug Kezirian and Jordan Schultz -- will be here each day throughout the postseason, giving their best bets for the evening's games.
All odds from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook unless otherwise listed. As always, shop around for the best price. Tuesday's game
Game 1 line: Warriors -7.5 Game 1 over/under: 219 Fortenbaugh: Four regular-season matchups between these two franchises produced an average of 224.3 points per game, with all four encounters resulting in 219 or more total points being scored. But that's all in the past. What matters right now is how these two teams plan on attacking each other in Game 1, but I still find myself leaning to the over.
The 2019 Western Conference finals features two teams that finished the regular season ranked in the top three in the NBA in offensive rating and top nine in true shooting percentage. Additionally, keep in mind that the loss of Kevin Durant to a strained right calf has as much of an effect on Golden State's defense as it does its offense. And in Game 6 of the Western Conference semifinals, the Dubs racked up 118 points, even after two-time MVP Steph Curry posted a goose egg in the first half.
Finally, take note that the over is 19-7 in the past 26 meetings between these two teams.
Pick: Over 218.5 total points (total has moved to 219)
Schultz: The Warriors have both the rest and home factors, but the Blazers are riding high off clinching their first conference finals appearance since Y2K. (Who can forget their epic collapse against the Lakers?) Remember, Golden State has been an ATS disaster at home, checking in at 28th, covering just 39.1 percent at Oracle Arena. The Blazers, however, are a top-10 road team ATS and are riding the momentum of the best backcourt in basketball right now. Damian Lillard, who grew up a stone's throw away from Oracle, and CJ McCollum will both enjoy good games as the Blazers try to steal Game 1.
Pick: Blazers +7.5
Johnson: I don't have a bet in Game 1 at the current numbers, but I did want to mention the totals for these Golden State games that Kevin Durant is absent. The Game 5 total in the Warriors-Rockets series closed at 222 before tipoff. For Game 6, after Durant suffered his calf injury, the total opened at 210. This was an extreme reaction to his injury, and the market was bet up to as high as 216 before Game 6.
While Durant clearly makes the Warriors' offense more efficient, Golden State plays at a quicker pace when he's off the court. That Game 6 total flew over from the get-go, and each team had roughly four more possessions than it was averaging in the prior five games. The number of points to be expected from that is greater than the value Durant provides the Warriors' offense.
Durant is also a plus defender, so we can anticipate Golden State's defense to be slightly less efficient without him on the floor. The Game 1 total against the Blazers opened at 216 and has already been bet up to 219, but be wary of betting unders in this series early while Durant misses some time. My projection is exactly 219.0, so I think the number is completely fair now after the initial move.
Pick: Pass
Kezirian: Some feel Game 1 is Portland's best chance to steal a game at Oracle. I disagree. The Blazers just survived a grueling seven-game series with Denver and have a quick turnaround for Game 1. Portland shot 4-for-26 from 3-point range in Game 7 and still escaped with an upset. I truly believe the Blazers are fatigued, which is dangerous when facing the Warriors' movement on offense. As a series evolves, Golden State's opponents tend to familiarize themselves with the Warriors' offense. But Game 1 can be a shock to the system. This could easily get away from Portland in the second half.
Pick: Warriors -7.5 Western Conference finals picks
Fortenbaugh: Golden State and Portland played to a 2-2 split during the regular season (2-2 ATS as well), but you can throw that out the window due to the Kevin Durant and Jusuf Nurkic injuries, not to mention the fact that the Warriors tend to find another gear come playoff time.
Based on what Portland faced through the first two rounds of the playoffs, the Blazers are headed for an abrupt left turn when they take the court at Oracle Arena for Game 1 on Tuesday night. Take a look at how Golden State stacks up against Denver and Oklahoma City (Portland's first two opponents) in a few crucial categories:
Field goal percentage: Golden State first, Denver 13th, Oklahoma City 19th
3-pointers made/game: Golden State third, Oklahoma City 12th, Denver 17th
3-point percentage: Golden State third, Denver 17th, Oklahoma City 22nd
Effective field goal percentage: Golden State first, Denver 15th, Oklahoma City 22nd
It's highly unlikely we see Durant in either of the first two games of this series, but the defending-champion Warriors demonstrated Friday that this team still has the requisite amount of firepower and mettle necessary to win high-level games in the postseason.
Pick: Warriors in 5 (+225)
Schultz: Portland has the best backcourt in basketball right now in Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum, who are excelling in Terry Stotts' motion-based flow offense. As good as Lillard was against OKC, McCollum (30 points in Game 6 and 37 in Game 7) might have been even better against Denver. And I love that Lillard -- despite missing 11 of his first 12 shots in Game 7 -- had the confidence to let McCollum go to work. Both guards present a litany of challenges for Steph Curry and Klay Thompson; it's not just their scoring and playmaking, it's the manner in which they play with tons of off-the-ball movement (especially McCollum), side-to-side action and deadly pick-and-rolls from different locations.
Perhaps most surprising for Stotts has been the play of Rodney Hood and Zach Collins -- Hood as a third option (he dropped a playoff career-high 25 in Game 6 vs. the Nuggets) and Collins as a tough defender who can also make 3s. The Warriors, likely without Kevin Durant for at least Games 1 and 2, are as vulnerable as they've ever been. It's not a matter of personnel -- nobody can match the Warriors -- but rather a matter of effort and focus. Steve Kerr has grown increasingly frustrated trying to coax a championship approach out of his club. His team repeatedly experiences enigmatic lulls that last for a half or even a full game, as we saw against the Clippers in the first round. The Blazers are playing with house money right now -- and there is value in this series line as a result.
Pick: Blazers +375
Johnson: It might appear this is a tough series to bet without concrete information regarding Kevin Durant's status. In theory, this is the correct approach. It is never worthwhile to force a wager without knowledge of every potential variable -- or at least projections and pricing to reflect a missing one.
I have the Warriors advancing 91.3 percent of the time (true line of -1049) if Durant plays the entire series. If he were to miss the entirety of the series due to his calf injury, then my projections have Golden State advancing 84.6 percent of the time (true line of -549). The sentiment across the league is that Durant is likely to return at some point during the series. With the current market price at -500 for the Warriors to advance (implied 83.3 percent of the time), I think there is plenty of value to warrant a play.
Generally people aren't too comfortable laying big prices to win a smaller amount, so if you prefer to go the Warriors -1.5 series games won route at -190, I think that is a perfectly fine option as well. I've driven around Las Vegas grabbing what I can get down on Golden State at -500 myself, but -1.5 series games won equates to a similar edge.
Pick: Warriors -500 or -1.5 series games won (-190)
Kezirian: I am a huge fan of the Blazers and everything they have accomplished, but this is too much of an ask. I do not think people are giving Houston enough credit. What the Warriors did in Game 6 was incredibly impressive. The Rockets learned how to defend Golden State as well as anyone, and Steph Curry and Klay Thompson still shot it extremely well. I think the Warriors will be able to handle Portland relatively easily. Once Kevin Durant returns, this will become extremely one-sided.
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Fortenbaugh: Golden State and Portland played to a 2-2 split during the regular season (2-2 ATS as well), but you can throw that out the window due to the Kevin Durant and Jusuf Nurkic injuries, not to mention the fact that the Warriors tend to find another gear come playoff time.
Schultz: Portland has the best backcourt in basketball right now in Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum, who are excelling in Terry Stotts' motion-based flow offense. As good as Lillard was against OKC, McCollum (30 points in Game 6 and 37 in Game 7) might have been even better against Denver. And I love that Lillard -- despite missing 11 of his first 12 shots in Game 7 -- had the confidence to let McCollum go to work. Both guards present a litany of challenges for Steph Curry and Klay Thompson; it's not just their scoring and playmaking, it's the manner in which they play with tons of off-the-ball movement (especially McCollum), side-to-side action and deadly pick-and-rolls from different locations.
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