Feels bad. Sometimes the line movements make zero sense. Team/Player A opens at -200, closes at +150 (no player substitutions), wins in a blowout. Team/Player B opens at +300, closes at -110, loses in a blowout. How can there be such massive discrepancies between the market and the books? Sometimes super strong favs get zero support from the market and super value dogs get zero support as well.
And don't tell me the results are just variance because when a tennis player loses 6:2 6:2 or a soccer team loses 4:0 I don't think there was any value on the other player/team even if they played the game 100 times.
My advice when you beat the closing price by a lot is to just hedge. I've seen favs steam from -150 to -1000 and lose, because the market is stupid AF. The other day I bet on a +760 dog which drifted to +1000 and won, certainly feels better than "beating the market" and losing hard. Picking winners is the best way to beat the market.