[Hman]

How to bet the first round of the NBA playoffs

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The NBA postseason is here. The Clippers are big underdogs against the Warriors. Can they pull off a miracle? Who will advance in the East?


Our experts -- Preston Johnson, Jordan Schultz and Doug Kezirian -- are here to help, giving their best bets for the first round of the playoffs.


Note: All odds are via Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook and DraftKings as of April 12.
Eastern Conference


(6) Brooklyn Nets (+425) vs. (3) Philadelphia 76ers(-600)

Kezirian: On paper, this should be a one-sided series that separates a legitimate conference contender from a team that took a giant step forward and needs this playoff appearance under its belt. However, Joel Embiid is a major question mark and may not even play Game 1. That gives me some pause before granting Philly a five-game "gentleman's sweep." Plus, the Sixers' new starting lineup has played a total of only 10 games together. If the Nets hit their 3s and don't rely too heavily on D'Angelo Russell, this series could get wonky.


Pick: Nets +2.5 games (+140)


Johnson: Joel Embiid's health is a an obvious concern, but just how significant of an impact would Embiid missing games or playing limited minutes make? This season with Embiid off the court, the Sixers have a net rating of -5.5 points per 100 possessions. That ranks 27th percentile league-wide. When Embiid was on the court, however, the Sixers outscored opponents by 8.9 points per 100 possessions. His impact is far and away the most significant on this Philadelphia team, and his uncertainty is worrisome.


My true line for this series with a healthy Embiid is Sixers -440 (implied win probability of 81.5 percent). Compared with the current price on the Nets of +550 (implied win probability for Philadelphia of 84.6 percent), I show a 3.1 percent edge to be had on Brooklyn to win the series. I show a slightly bigger edge, however, on the Nets at +2.5 series games won, +140 (true line +121). This also reduces the variance compared to taking a shot on the +550, which many people are more comfortable with anyway.


Best bet: Nets +2.5 (+140)



(2) Toronto Raptors (-1500) vs. (7) Orlando Magic(+850)

Johnson: As soon as I saw the Marc Gasol trade made official, I drove down to the Strip here in Las Vegas to get down what I could on the Raptors to win the Eastern Conference at +275. My sentiment hasn't changed since, and, if anything, I am more confident in the wager. Toronto lineups with Gasol on the floor are +17.3 points per 100 possessions, which ranks 99th percentile in the league. The Gasol-Pascal Siakam-Kawhi Leonard-Danny Green-Kyle Lowrylineup has actually been the best in the NBA since the trade (of those that meet a minutes requirement).


I think we would all be foolish if we didn't believe that Leonard will take his play to another level in these playoffs. It not only has been presaged by the numerous games Leonard has missed for load management in the regular season, but how quickly have we forgotten that just a couple of years ago he was the best LeBron James defender in the world and won an NBA Finals MVP? Siakam is going to win Most Improved Player. Lowry, who has had to carry the load in the playoffs and has failed against LeBron, gets to sit back and distribute and knock down open 3-pointers at his own comfort level. Green and Serge Ibaka have both hit massive shots in their careers for teams making deep playoff runs. Green, by the way, posted a net rating of +13.1 points per 100 possessions this season, which ranked second in the entire NBA behind a guy named Steph Curry (and just ahead of Giannis Antetokounmpo).


Speaking of Giannis, the Bucks have had an extraordinary season. Mike Budenholzer is probably the favorite to win Coach of the Year and Giannis Most Valuable Player. But the Bucks are relying on players who haven't been tested at the highest level in the playoffs before. Budenholzer had similar seasons in Atlanta, and guess what? The Hawks went 0-and-8 against LeBron and the Cavaliers. They were swept twice. They have a .50/.40/.90 stud in Malcolm Brogdon who averages 16 points per game but has been out an extended period of time and could wind up missing a good portion of the playoffs (if he even plays at all). The drop-off to Tony Snell and Sterling Brown taking those minutes is significant.


I have more questions about the Bucks than I do answers about the Raptors -- and I have plenty of answers for Toronto. I will leave you with my favorite one: 396 players have played at least 1,500 minutes in the postseason. Among those ranking at the top in win shares per 48 minutes are Michael Jordan (1), LeBron James (2) and Kawhi Leonard (3). DeMar DeRozan -- the player Toronto swapped for Leonard while subsequently adding Gasol, Green and developing a borderline All-Star in Siakam to the roster -- ranks 391st. This squad is going to take care of the Magic in five games or less, and it's going to the NBA Finals. I have seen +225 or better in the current market, and anything at those prices is a steal.


Best bet: Raptors to win the East (+225) and Raptors -2.5 (-230) in the series



(4) Boston Celtics (-550) vs. (5) Indiana Pacers(+400)

Johnson: The Celtics deserve to be the favorite to win this series but at nowhere near the rate the -700 line implies. With the news that Marcus Smartwill miss four to six weeks with an injury, my projection is Boston winning 79.8 percent of the time (-396). The Pacers at +500 is a 3.5 percent edge to win the series compared to my numbers, and I have decided to attack that edge with a similarly valuable wager on the over 5.5 series games played +110. This is more or less a bet on the Pacers winning at least two games in the series (and the Celtics can't be swept or lose in five games). Victor Oladipo or not, we saw the Pacers take LeBron to seven games in the first round last season (and a much weaker Bucks team took the Celtics to seven as well). Indiana will be well-rested entering the playoffs, and its late-season finish isn't anything I am too concerned about. The value is on the Pacers, and I think this has a really good shot at going seven games as well.


Best bet: Over 5.5 games (+110) and Celtics win series 4-3 (+600)



(1) Milwaukee Bucks (-10000) vs. (8) Detroit Pistons (+2000)

Johnson: Detroit's lack of winning down the stretch is concerning and correlated with Blake Griffin's injury. With a hobbled Griffin or potentially no Griffin at all, this Pistons roster has multiple holes going up against the best team in the NBA this season. With a healthy Griffin, I project the Pistons to win two or more games only 8.7 percent of the time. The Bucks -2.5 series games won can be had at -835 (2.4 percent edge). Again, this is with a healthy Griffin (who clearly is not). I understand that people don't generally like laying a price juiced this high, and a Milwaukee sweep priced at -134 may be a more comfortable option for you, but I'm personally taking the -2.5. I'm not worried about saving face in the chance the Pistons actually make this a six- or seven-game series. I trust my process, and I share what I bet with everybody following along. This is my best bet in the series.


Best bet: Bucks -2.5 games (-835)

Western Conference


(8) Los Angeles Clippers (+10000) vs. (1) Golden State Warriors (-50000)

Kezirian: I do not think Golden State will cruise through the Western Conference playoffs. However, this is not the series that will test the two-time defending champs. The Clippers have been a remarkable story, exceeding their projected season win total by 10.5 games. This is a squad that maximized itself in the regular season by grinding out a postseason appearance with minimal dominance. The Clips are one of just two Western Conference playoff teams with a losing record against above-.500 teams. Essentially, they took care of business -- heightened by a 5-1 mark in overtime games. Meanwhile, the Warriors did not live up to their potential, but I chalk that up to boredom and apathy. Golden State might find itself in danger of dropping a game at Staples Center, but I trust the champs to sweep.


Pick: Under 4.5 games (-110)


Johnson: There isn't much to get into in this matchup. The Warriors should take care of business, and while I want to root on and bet that an overachieving Clippers squad steals a game somewhere in this series, they will be underdogs in every single game, and the numbers just don't ultimately offer much value. I think there may be in-game betting opportunities backing the Clippers' second unit that features Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell against the Golden State bench, but outside of that I don't see anything currently jumping out.


Best bet: Pass



(6) Oklahoma City Thunder (-155) vs. (3) Portland Trail Blazers (+135)

Kezirian: How would we view the Thunder if they hadn't rallied in the fourth quarter on Tuesday to beat Houston? This is still a team that has been horrible ATS since the All-Star break. Are we to believe the Thunder have suddenly figured it out and will deliver on all that promise of two MVP-caliber players and great defensive length? Frankly, I think very highly of this Portland team. Damian Lillard would be considered a superstar if he played in a bigger market. He's a born leader and has the ability to be the best player in four games of this series. However, OKC seemingly matches up well with Portland, having won all four regular-season meetings. Since the playoffs expanded to the current format in 1983, teams that sweep the regular season 4-0 have also won the playoff series 34 of 37 times. With that being said, I think the Blazers have solidified their bench over the past month, with Jake Layman and Seth Curry adding much-needed depth. Add that to Paul George's uncertain shoulder issues and Portland's home-court advantage, and I think the Blazers hang around.


Pick: Over 5.5 games (-210)


Johnson: Whether you are a seasoned bettor or doing this recreationally, it is OK to admit from time to time that you don't have a read or wager on a particular event. I have no clue who is going to win this series. I have made arguments in my head for why the Thunder should absolutely roll. Then I remember that they had the 29th-ranked net rating in the NBA after the All-Star break and that Paul George's shoulder injury is clearly hampering his ability to score at the efficiency level he had prior to it. Enes Kanter though! Oklahoma City will eat him alive! The Jusuf Nurkic injury is what likely swings this series, and my projections do agree that the Thunder should be a slight favorite, but I don't anticipate seeing the Blazers getting swept for the third straight season in the first round. I'll be looking to attack the spreads and totals from game to game in this series, but for now I'm staying away.


Best bet: Pass


Schultz: The loss of Jusuf Nurkic was a killer for Portland, although it becomes somewhat manageable with a productive Enes Kanter playing heavy minutes. Expect a motivated and rejuvenated Kanter against his former team, especially after piling up losses in meaningless games with the Knicks during most of the last two seasons. And don't sleep on second-year big Zach Collins, who has played well since Nurk's injury, especially in running pick-and-roll with three-time All-NBA point guard Damian Lillard. According to Second Spectrum, the Blazers average 1.25 points per direct pick with Lillard as the ball handler and Collins as the screener, which quantifies as the best clip in the NBA (min. 150 direct picks).


Ultimately, this series comes down to the perimeter. With the stellar backcourt duo of Lillard and CJ McCollum, who is once again healthy after enduring a knee sprain, the Blazers are the superior 3-point shooting team (ninth versus 22nd) and the better half-court team, ranking fourth in offensive efficiency, compared to the Thunder, slotted 17th -- behind an array of nonplayoff teams. Portland has won 14 of its last 17.


Another reason to like the Blazers is their ability to succeed playing multiple styles. OKC wants to get downhill and run because triple-double man Russell Westbrook and MVP candidate Paul George make so many plays in the open floor. Terry Stotts' club is far more deft at adapting its style, however, and has lineup flexibility with Moe Harkless and Al-Farouq Aminu to throw at George.


Remember, the playoffs are a slower, more plodding brand of basketball. Tempo matters, and teams that struggle to execute in the half court will always lose out to those who can. That is why I love Portland to advance with a bit more ease than you might expect.


Pick: Portland +130



(5) Utah Jazz (+275) vs. (4) Houston Rockets(-350)

Kezirian: Ultimately, this comes down to whether guys like Gerald Green, Austin Rivers and PJ Tucker can make 3s. We know James Harden, Chris Pauland Clint Capela will put up numbers. Houston won last year's playoff series in five games, but I think the Jazz are more seasoned now, especially after adding veteran Kyle Korver, who has demonstrated he can hit big shots. But how good are the Jazz? I've always questioned the potency of Utah and Denver in the playoffs because I feel the altitude and scheduling advantage might skew their regular-season records. On top of that, the Jazz were 0-7 in games decided by three points or less and finished with a losing record against above-.500 teams. This is a big test for a Utah team eager to get over the hump and, while that's certainly possible, I'll side with the star power.


Pick: Houston -1.5 games (-125)


Johnson: Both the Rockets and the Jazz were teams I was looking forward to betting on in the first round of the playoffs. Houston had the best net rating in the NBA after the All-Star break, and Utah came in just behind the Rockets. I do think the Jazz are being dismissed accordingly because it's James Harden and it's the Rockets -- which is totally fair -- but Utah was +6.1 per 100 possessions in four matchups against Houston this season with a defensive rating of 95.2. That's not likely sustainable, but the Jazz do have a Defensive Player of the Year candidate in Rudy Gobert to protect the paint to go along with perimeter bodies like Ricky Rubio, Donovan Mitchell, Joe Ingles, Royce O'Neale and Jae Crowderwho can all defend the Harden and Chris Paul pick-and-roll. Derrick Favors had the best individual defensive rating in the NBA this season. Houston is going to have to work and grind to earn this win, and I have this series going to six or seven games 67.9 percent of the time (-212). Utah at +2.5 games -240 isn't as valuable of an option as going with the series games played over 5.5 at -177. It would ultimately be a surprise if the Rockets were swept or lost this series in five games.


Best bet: Over 5.5 games (-177)



(2) Denver Nuggets (-270) vs. (7) San Antonio Spurs (+220)

Johnson: I have had multiple people tell me in the last few weeks that the Nuggets stink. "They will lose in the first round -- hopefully it's the Spurs". I have even caught myself watching Denver in recent weeks as they limped to the regular season finish line thinking the same exact thing. Numbers, however, do not lie. We talk about market overreaction from game-to-game or week-to-week with teams often, and this ultimately isn't any different.


The perception is that Denver is poor due to a mediocre close to an awesome season. The Spurs are the Spurs, and they have Gregg Popovich. Popovich may be their only edge, though. The Nuggets are the superior team, with home-court advantage and the best player on the court (Nikola Jokic). My projections are that Denver wins this series 76 percent of the time, or a true line of -317. They opened -200 (implied 66.7 percent win probability), but at -270 in the current market it's only worth a smaller wager. I was the only person I know of that bet the Spurs' season win total over this year. I am not anti-San Antonio in any regard. We have all -- myself included, at times -- forgotten just how dangerous this Denver team has been most of the season. This is cheap, and I'm all over it.


Best bet: Nuggets -270


Kezirian: Is anyone picking the Nuggets? I realize they looked like a junior varsity squad in recent meetings with Golden State, but this is still a solid team that won 54 games. With all that being said, San Antonio is a live 'dog and will act accordingly. This feels like a series where the home team wins all seven games. I also trust San Antonio's shooters a lot more than I do Denver's.


Pick: Spurs +2.5 games (-180)


Schultz: This is rare value for a No. 2 seed. Why? Because Denver is still a bit of an unknown, given it has yet to achieve playoff success with its very talented, but very young roster. And, at +170, San Antonio's price is inflated because of public perception: a trustworthy dynasty with a Hall of Fame coach in Gregg Popovich who just tied Lenny Wilkens for most all-time wins. In fact, during their current 21-year streak of playoff basketball, the Spurs have been knocked out of the first round just five times -- including last season to the Warriors.


Denver, to be sure, is the better, more balanced team, featuring the best player in playmaking center Nikola Jokic and a terrific backcourt with the versatile duo of Jamal Murray and Gary Harris. Why is this such a threat? Because at 18th in the NBA, this is the worst defensive efficiency team that Popovich has coached during those 21 years.



The Nuggets have excellent depth too, allowing Mike Malone to tinker with lineups based on what he needs. Torrey Craig is a bigger version of Boston's Marcus Smart, capable of locking down several spots and connecting on nearly 43 percent from 3 over his last 10 games. Backup point guard Monte Morris is as good as it gets coming off the bench, ranking second in the league in assist-to-turnover ratio (5.71). Malik Beasley is another athletic defender who can score in bunches, as can the walking bucket himself, Will Barton. As a result, the older Spurs are going to have fits chasing all of Denver's action throughout a prolonged series. Do not be surprised if this thing gets away early from the five-time champs.


Pick: Nuggets -200

[Hman]

No opinion on this material fellas.

Posting for others per request.

[SamsNCharge99]

best insight Best bet: Bucks -2.5 games (-835)

[thetrinity]

I feel dumber for reading this

[funnyb25]

Yikes