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Final Four betting guide: Best bets and props 💲
Final Four betting guide: Best bets and props
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
Virginia, the lone No. 1 seed left in the tournament, will kick off Saturday's action against upset-minded Auburn, followed by Texas Tech-Michigan State.
Our college basketball experts -- Joe Fortenbaugh, Preston Johnson, Doug Kezirian and Jordan Schultz -- are here to help, giving their best bets for the Final Four of the men's NCAA tournament.
If you're looking for more analysis, be sure to check out PickCenter, which has projections for every tourney game.
Note: All odds are via Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of April 3. All times Eastern.
No. 5 Auburn Tigers vs. No. 1 Virginia Cavaliers(-5.5)
Total: 131
BPI line: Virginia -7.8
6:09 p.m. Saturday in Minneapolis, Minnesota
Johnson: The Cavaliers are worth a bet at -5.5. My projection is UVA -6.4, but that is with Auburn's Chuma Okeke in the lineup. Okeke tore his ACL against North Carolina, and while his teammates rose to the occasion in an overtime win over Kentucky, Okeke's impact is definitely significant (without him, I'd make this UVA -7). I think the matchup favors Virginia. The Cavaliers defended the 3-point line better than any other team in the country in the regular season, but due to some crazy variance -- and Purdue's Carsen Edwards -- opponents have shot 39.2 percent from 3 in Virginia's past three tournament games against Oklahoma, Oregon and Purdue.
On the other side of the court, a Virginia team that ranked top-five in 3-point shooting this season, at more than 40 percent, shot just 29.8 percent in the tournament. The Cavaliers still won all three (and covered in two). Auburn will take a ton of 3s, and if any of the 3-point luck that has gone against Virginia flips the other way, this could wind up getting ugly. The number is short, regardless. Take Virginia.
Pick: Virginia -5.5
Kezirian: This is such an intriguing game. The Tigers rely heavily on transition points, stemming from their defense and team speed. They rank third in the country with 9.4 steals per game and sixth with 17.5 forced turnovers per game, a recipe which has helped them reach the Final Four. However, Auburn now squares off with an incredibly disciplined Virginia team that ranks second in the nation with just 9.1 turnovers per game. I doubt the Hoos will want to run with Auburn. Look for the Cavaliers to make this a battle of half-court offenses and both teams to have issues shooting in a giant venue. Plus, UVA allows opponents to shoot just 27.8 percent from behind the arc, which ranks second in the nation.
Pick: Under 131
Fortenbaugh: The Cavaliers are averaging a grand total of 59.2 possessions per 40 minutes this season, which ranks 353rd out 353 college basketball programs. It shouldn't come as much of a shock that in 11 Virginia games this season in which the total closed at 130 points or higher, the under cashed eight times. For good measure, take into account Virginia's eighth-ranked squad in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency, and you have a recipe for an under that will likely see me sweating bullets when both squads hit the double bonus with eight minutes remaining. Hey, that's life in the underworld.
Pick: Under 131
Prop bets
Team to score 10 points first (Virginia -125, Auburn +105)
Fortenbaugh: Given how much randomness is capable of permeating the opening stages of a high-level college basketball matchup, give me the plus-money option when it comes to props such as this one. Case in point: For as nasty as Virginia has been this season, the Cavaliers were outscored by 16-seed Gardner-Webb 10-6 during the opening round of the tournament, 11-9 by 9-seed Oklahoma during the Round of 32 and 11-6 by 3-seed Purdue in the Elite Eight. I'll take my chances with plus-money Auburn in this spot.
Pick: Auburn +105
Schultz: Take the Kentucky game away, and you realize that Auburn tends to start quickly. Virginia is the more complete team and is correctly favored by 5.5 points, but Bruce Pearl gives the green light to his pair of second-team All-SEC guards, Bryce Brown and Jared Harper, both of whom average more than 15 PPG while hovering around the 40 percent clip from 3. As a result, Auburn will get to 10 before the Hoos settle into their tempo and dictate pace to their liking.
Pick: Auburn +105
Largest lead Over/Under 14.5 points (over -110, under -110)
Johnson: In a high-variance game with a barrage of 3-point attempts expected, it bodes well for a large lead to be had at some point. We saw Auburn build big leads as an underdog against Kansas and North Carolina when its 3-pointers were going down, and we have seen the Virginia offense lull plenty in this tournament. I think this could wind up being a blowout win for the Cavaliers with the way they match up against the Tigers and some of the bad 3-point variance that has gone against them in the tournament to this point. While it hasn't shown in the past two games, we have seen Virginia wear teams down in second halves this season and pull away in lopsided results. I anticipate that this could be the case against Auburn, with the loss of Okeke making a more significant impact than showed against Kentucky.
Pick: Over 14.5
No. 3 Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. No. 2 Michigan State Spartans (-2.5)
Total: 132.5
BPI line: MSU -2.9
8:49 p.m. Saturday in Minneapolis, Minnesota
Johnson: I was slightly surprised to see this open -2.5 and immediately get bet up to -3. My projection for the side is Michigan State -1.5, and had it reached -3.5, I would have jumped in to back the Red Raiders. The following morning, however, the +3s were gobbled up, and this settled back in at +2.5. I'm fairly certain Texas Tech would have preferred a rematch against Duke. Tech lost to the Blue Devils in nonconference play early in the season, but the Red Raiders have improved dramatically on the offensive end, and we know Duke had been struggling to get by against worse competition.
Similar to Gonzaga, Duke would attack the Tech 2-3 matchup zone with isolation, as opposed to Sparty, who will show more continuity and ball movement to get defenders in the zone out of position. Michigan State is also a much better 3-point-shooting team. The matchup favors the Spartans some, so this is a complete stay-away for me, despite the number being a little too high.
Pick: Pass
Schultz: Michigan State continues to overachieve. Credit Tom Izzo for a masterful job coaching a team that lacks high-level NBA talent and has dealt with significant injuries. Sparty manages to win games because of its toughness and togetherness. No player bears more responsibility than Big Ten Player of the Year Cassius Winston, a battle-tested lead guard who runs the show with equal parts intelligence and skill. Winston will have the upper hand against Red Raiders point guard Matt Mooney, who is a good shooter but lacks the creative skills to weaken Michigan State's defense. Texas Tech will certainly give Winston & Co. problems with its top-ranked adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom, but the experienced and gritty Spartans will limit turnovers and rely on Winston down the stretch to make enough plays, just as he did versus Duke. Michigan State gets both the win and cover in what should be an old-fashioned slugfest.
ATS pick: Michigan State -2.5
Fortenbaugh: I was a bit surprised to see this total open north of 130 due, in large part, to the fact that Texas Tech ranks first in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency and 229th in adjusted tempo, and Michigan State ranks eighth in adjusted defensive efficiency and 201st in adjusted tempo. The Red Raiders are surrendering an average of 57 points per game through four tournament outings, with the under cashing three times, and the Spartans are permitting an average of 61.2 points per game through four tournament contests, with three unders cashing as well. As for the side, well, give Izzo a week to prepare for Chris Beard's defense, and you'll find me willing to lay the points as a result.
Picks: Under 132.5 points and Michigan State -2.5
Prop bets
Jarrett Culver Over/Under 20.5 points (over -110, under -110)
Schultz: Let me preface this by saying that I love Culver. He is immensely skilled and will become a terrific pro. Michigan State, however, ranks ninth nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom, and has the foundation to defend Culver similarly to the way it defended Duke's RJ Barrett: sit on the dominant hand, clog the paint and high-hedge or ice ball screens. Surely, Culver, the Big 12 Player of the Year, will make some tough shots, but the Spartans won't let him get to 20 playing a half-court game with limited possessions.
Pick: Under 20.5
Matt Mooney Over/Under 11 points: (over -110, under -110)
Schultz: This is a tough matchup for Mooney. Not only is Winston a tough defender, but senior Matt McQuaid is a rangy, 6-foot-4 guard with very good feet and the length to bother the smaller Texas Tech point guard. Because Culver -- and Davide Moretti, for that matter -- won't be able to attack closeouts with the normal level of proficiency, Mooney will not see clean looks from 3. Expect single-digits from the senior point guard as a result.
Pick: Under 11
Kenny Goins Over/Under 7.5 points: (over -110, under -110)
Johnson: Nick Ward bruised his surgically repaired hand against LSU in the Sweet 16, and though he was coming off the bench for Michigan State following his return from surgery, we saw Kenny Goins get 38 minutes against Duke in the Elite Eight. Goins' usage is up the past two games, in which he has totaled 22 shots and 16 3-point attempts. Sparty utilizing Goins' ability to pick and pop with Cassius Winston or to space the floor when Winston attacks the Texas Tech zone will be extremely valuable. I anticipate a similar rate of attempts and minutes, and my projection for Goins' points is 9.4.
Pick: Over 7.5
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