NCAA championship betting guide: Best bets and props 🤑
NCAA championship betting guide: Best bets and props
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Who will cut down the nets? March Madness concludes Monday with Virginia and Texas Tech vying for the title. The Cavaliers are a slight favorite, so which side is worth betting on? Are there props worth wagering?
Our college basketball experts -- Joe Fortenbaugh, Preston Johnson and Jordan Schultz -- are here to help, giving their best bets for the men's NCAA tournament championship.
If you're looking for more analysis, be sure to check out PickCenter, which has projections for every tourney game.
Note: All odds are via Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of April 7. All times Eastern.
Johnson: The market reaction to recent games is often too drastic. It isn't solely the small sample of games that causes muddled perception, but it's the way the general public consumes a specific result that can cloud judgment.
Whether you believe Kyle Guy was fouled or not, everyone remembers Auburn should have won that game (while also recalling the good fortune required for Virginia to force overtime and beat Purdue in the Elite Eight). It didn't take long, but the majority have already forgotten that the Cavaliers led by 10 points with five minutes left when Ty Jerome picked up his third foul. People won't like to admit that just as easily as Auburn could have won the game, Virginia could have put the Tigers away in those final five minutes for a double-digit victory.
The people who put stock into those three minutes -- when Jerome committed his third and fourth fouls, head coach Tony Bennett inexplicably benched him with such little time left in a Final Four game and Auburn's Bryce Brown made three quick 3-pointers (also recalling Carsen Edwards' 10 3-pointers in the Purdue game) -- like Texas Tech in the title game.
As great as the Red Raiders have played and as high on them as I was entering the tournament, I prefer using data of an aggregate season as opposed to a three-minute sample and outlier performances. My projection for this game is Virginia -3.4, and I was genuinely shocked to see the opening number come in so low (especially after Tariq Owens injured his ankle against Michigan State and won't likely be anywhere near 100 percent). Can Texas Tech win it all? Absolutely. In fact, I think the Red Raiders take it down 37.7 percent of the time. But a projected win probability for Virginia at 62.3 percent equates to a money line price of -165, and -120 or a bet at -1 on the spread can be had in the current market. That's a 7.8 percent edge for me, and one that is certainly worth betting.
ATS pick: Virginia -1.5
Fortenbaugh: The look-ahead line for this matchup surfaced last Monday with Virginia posted as a three-point favorite over Texas Tech. Since then, the Red Raiders defeated Michigan State as a short underdog (1.5 points), and Virginia edged Auburn 63-62, closing as a six-point favorite. Were those two outcomes really that surprising? Let merephrase: Were those two outcomes surprising enough to warrant a two-point adjustment to the look-ahead line? I'd argue no. Texas Tech is the best defensive team in the country, and Virginia led Auburn by 10 points with just over five minutes to play. There's value to be had with the Cavaliers at -1 or better, should the opportunity arise.
ATS pick: Virginia -1.5
Schultz: Texas Tech and Virginia are equally sound defensive walls who do not break down. The Cavaliers, however, maintain a slight edge from an offensive standpoint with their three future pros: De'Andre Hunter, Ty Jerome and Kyle Guy. Jerome (21 points on 4-for-9 shooting on 3-pointers and six assists vs. Auburn) is the impetus to the Hoos' ranking seventh nationally in offensive efficiency (Tech ranks 78th). His shooting and passing ability carved up Bruce Pearl's defense. Hunter is an elite, two-way player and a likely lottery pick tasked with checking Big 12 Player of the Year Jarrett Culver, who has struggled of late offensively. Guy (39.2 percent on 3-pointers) and Jerome are both knockdown shooters who will likely draw Matt Mooney for extended stretches. Guy's ability to run off screens and force Mooney into a track meet defensively will impact the Red Raiders point guard on the other end of the floor. Keep in mind that Texas Tech is just 1-6 ATS in its past seven against ACC teams, while UVa is 10th in the country ATS this season and third among all Power-5 schools.
ATS pick: Virginia -1.5 Prop bets
Matt Mooney Over/Under 10.5 points (over -110, under -110)
Schultz: Mooney was tremendous against Michigan State, coming up with a bevy of clutch 3-pointers and drives to help push Tech over the top. However, Virginia, with its pack-line defense, thwarts dribble penetration. Case in point: Auburn's Jared Harper. After a brilliant tournament, the second-team All-SEC performer was unable to get downhill and find his rhythm, resulting in a pedestrian 11 points on 4-of-10 shooting and just one assist. Mooney is not as creative as Harper, but he is bigger and more physical. As he tries to bully his way into the paint against diminutive Cavaliers point guard Kihei Clark, Mooney will be met with a barrage of active hands and length, both of which resulted in the Hoos' ranking fifth nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom. Additionally, he will likely be tasked with guarding Kyle Guy and Ty Jerome, whose activity both on and off the ball will wear him down. Better yet, Virginia is first nationally in scoring defense (55.5 PPG) and third in 3-point percentage defense, allowing just 28.7 percent shooting from behind the arc. We should expect anything but a repeat performance of Saturday night from the gritty grad transfer.
Pick: Under
Total 3-point field goals made by both teams: Over/Under 14 (-110 both ways)
Fortenbaugh: Through five tournament matchups, Texas Tech is averaging 69.8 points and 7.0 made 3-pointers per game, and Virginia is averaging 66 points and 7.8 made 3-pointers per contest. But one look at the total for Monday's championship showdown (over/under 118 points) highlights just how much of a challenge awaits both programs in putting the ball through the hoop. Look for defense and tempo to give this prop a nudge toward the under.
Johnson: The market reaction to recent games is often too drastic. It isn't solely the small sample of games that causes muddled perception, but it's the way the general public consumes a specific result that can cloud judgment. Whether you believe Kyle Guy was fouled or not, everyone remembers Auburn should have won that game (while also recalling the good fortune required for Virginia to force overtime and beat Purdue in the Elite Eight). It didn't take long, but the majority have already forgotten that the Cavaliers led by 10 points with five minutes left when Ty Jerome picked up his third foul. People won't like to admit that just as easily as Auburn could have won the game, Virginia could have put the Tigers away in those final five minutes for a double-digit victory.
The people who put stock into those three minutes -- when Jerome committed his third and fourth fouls, head coach Tony Bennett inexplicably benched him with such little time left in a Final Four game and Auburn's Bryce Brown made three quick 3-pointers (also recalling Carsen Edwards' 10 3-pointers in the Purdue game) -- like Texas Tech in the title game.
As great as the Red Raiders have played and as high on them as I was entering the tournament, I prefer using data of an aggregate season as opposed to a three-minute sample and outlier performances. My projection for this game is Virginia -3.4, and I was genuinely shocked to see the opening number come in so low (especially after Tariq Owens injured his ankle against Michigan State and won't likely be anywhere near 100 percent). Can Texas Tech win it all? Absolutely. In fact, I think the Red Raiders take it down 37.7 percent of the time. But a projected win probability for Virginia at 62.3 percent equates to a money line price of -165, and -120 or a bet at -1 on the spread can be had in the current market. That's a 7.8 percent edge for me, and one that is certainly worth betting.
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NCAA championship betting guide: Best bets and props 🤑
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