[ikid2groove415]

I expect 116 plus lost - Pay the juice fellas !!!

[MickeyMan]

Welcome back my illiterate friend.

-Gauchojake

[allabout the $$$]

I expect 116 plus lost - Pay the juice fellas !!!

and the 55 they win where the fave is -200 most of the time will even it all out.

yankees were -350-400 today they have to win 1 of those games and it will happen you need 3 or 4 wins to make up the loss

[eaglesfan371]

Favs will likely be overjuiced. For a profitable following of a team, you want to find a team predicted to make the offseason, that you think will never make it and fade them. Or a team that is predicted to do awful that you think will do great.

[KVB]

Last year, I have Balty at 47-115 and if you bet the same unit on them every game you would have lost more than 50 units, depending on the line, and show an ROI in the low -30%

What about the fade?

If you had gone against Balty every game last year betting the same unit, you would be up about 30 units with close to 19% ROI.

[2daBank]

Last year, I have Balty at 47-115 and if you bet the same unit on them every game you would have lost more than 50 units, depending on the line, and show an ROI in the low -30%

What about the fade?

If you had gone against Balty every game last year betting the same unit, you would be up about 30 units with close to 19% ROI.

They thought of even worse this year than they were at least the beginning of last year as you could see with today’s line. It be way too pricey for me to attempt fading them.

[TommieGunshot]

Bet them under 59.5 and 59.

[krk1030]

Go run line against them.

[juicername]

Fade was indeed very profitably last year. You would think the books would adapt to how awfult they are this season though.

on / against: -$5,394 / +$4,707

ROI: -31.9% / +17.1%

[Fred The Hammer]

Go run line against them.

Atleast on the road. I'm not a huge RL player anyway...but def not when they get 27 outs to your 24.

[2daBank]

Fade was indeed very profitably last year. You would think the books would adapt to how awfult they are this season though.

on / against: -$5,394 / +$4,707

ROI: -31.9% / +17.1%

You can pretty much be assured if they have similarly terrible record it won’t be nearly as profitable.

[sweethook]

love it , gl sir.

[Jeff_Black]

I've been tempted to bet these ones like against the Yankees overs when they are 8.5 like they were the other day but wouldn't mind seeing how some of these guys go.

I remember Bundy had an ok start last year and got some good value out of him at times at ML and RL.

[beavis13]

Just parlay them and whoever is playing the Giants every time.

[KVB]

Go run line against them.

Atleast on the road. I'm not a huge RL player anyway...but def not when they get 27 outs to your 24.

In 2018 I have Balty going 68-94 against the runline and betting the same unit on them each game would have left you down about -27.5 units, about -17% ROI, depending on the line.

Betting the same unit on each fade of that would have netted about +22 units with about 13.5% ROI.

Fading the runline when Balty was on the road was responsible for +19 of the +22 units; about 23% ROI and a 49-32 record.

Fading the Balty run line at home still went 45-36, about +3 units and about 4% ROI.

In my opinion, if Balty is even close to as bad this year as they were last year, there should still be profit, although eroded, left in both ML and RL fades.

I think it can be mitigated by making sure the line is bought early but even that effect will erode as the season progresses.

But if Balty goes on a win streak or two, along with the market adjusting, the profit on the fade could disappear quick.

[KVB]

Just parlay them and whoever is playing the Giants every time.

Giants were crazy last year.

If you had bet the same unit on the moneyline every game you would have been up nearly +8 units on August 31st.

By September 30th, you would have been down more the -7 units.

[KVB]

lol...

Contrarian Fund...

915

30-Mar

BAL +306

Oh boy, here we go, Balty going to suck the like out of the Fund...

[ikid2groove415]

Run line boys - every dam game -1.5

[slayer14]

Yanks gonna lose here?

[2daBank]

And just like that gonna have big hole to dig out of.

[Fred The Hammer]

lol...

+306 is a bad line. If you play huge dogs then get it 5 min before the 1st pitch after Joe Square pounds the "sure thing". I see +325 to +335

[krk1030]

Yankeees were on top of the world for a day and a half.

Nice easy win looked good.

Sox get crushed.

Sox getting crushed again....then they come back and win and the Yankees get embarrassed by Baltimore.

Same old bums.

[krk1030]

Here come the Yankees lol

[Chi_archie]

thanks KVB

GameDate	Date Placed	Sport	Description	Risk/Win
Ticket#:4123975 Mar 30 01:05 PM	Mar 30 12:56 PM	MLB	STRAIGHT BET [915] BAL +304 ( ACTION )	60.00 / 182.40
Ticket#:4123976 Mar 30 01:05 PM	Mar 30 12:56 PM	MLB	STRAIGHT BET [915] BAL +1½+148 ( N KARNS -R / J PAXTON -L )	70.00 / 103.60

[5mike5]

took out about 90% of the survivor pool contest too

[5mike5]

thanks KVB

GameDate	Date Placed	Sport	Description	Risk/Win
Ticket#:4123975 Mar 30 01:05 PM	Mar 30 12:56 PM	MLB	STRAIGHT BET [915] BAL +304 ( ACTION )	60.00 / 182.40
Ticket#:4123976 Mar 30 01:05 PM	Mar 30 12:56 PM	MLB	STRAIGHT BET [915] BAL +1½+148 ( N KARNS -R / J PAXTON -L )	70.00 / 103.60

Nice job Archie

[jjgold]

Never make money chasing favorites

[Fred The Hammer]

Never make money chasing favorites

Yep. Once in a while I'll play -175 or something, but its usually late in the year when its a decent pitcher/team against someone thats just mailing it in.

[KVB]

+306 is a bad line. If you play huge dogs then get it 5 min before the 1st pitch after Joe Square pounds the "sure thing". I see +325 to +335

Yeah started buying at +306 and +318 and finished the position out with some 330's. The line jumped right after I started buying.

Didn't mid buying into the pressure as I was happy with anything better than +300.

[KVB]

thanks KVB

GameDate	Date Placed	Sport	Description	Risk/Win
Ticket#:4123975 Mar 30 01:05 PM	Mar 30 12:56 PM	MLB	STRAIGHT BET [915] BAL +304 ( ACTION )	60.00 / 182.40
Ticket#:4123976 Mar 30 01:05 PM	Mar 30 12:56 PM	MLB	STRAIGHT BET [915] BAL +1½+148 ( N KARNS -R / J PAXTON -L )	70.00 / 103.60

[2daBank]

Yep. Once in a while I'll play -175 or something, but its usually late in the year when its a decent pitcher/team against someone thats just mailing it in.

There just no point in it for me. I’m pretty confident I can bang out the percentage it takes to do well w dogs and totals, I know I can’t hit at a clip high enough to win with favs priced above -140.

[KVB]

Talked all this shit about fading Balty on ML and RL then turned around and bought the +300.

The Contrarian Fund is full of surprises.

[BigDofBA]

Yep. Once in a while I'll play -175 or something, but its usually late in the year when its a decent pitcher/team against someone thats just mailing it in.

I don’t shy away from laying juice every once in a while. You don’t want to make a living playing every -175 line but every now and then it’s ok.

Faves win a lot too.

It seems trendy around here to play a lot of dogs in baseball. I like it, but you have to be able to got faves too.

I will say if you’re losing and need a winner, going larger than normal on a -175 play when you need it never seems to work out. I usually make these plays when I’m in a rhythm and on a good streak.

[krk1030]

Stayed away today cause of the opener bullshit.

For some reason always gives the yankees problems..at least with Tampa it did.

[ikid2groove415]

Baltimore wasn’t Going 0-162 -