Day, Night, Over, Under…let’s dig a little deeper.
Going back years we all know a total can be busted by the bullpen so to mitigate that noise let’s try to just talk UNDERS. For the most part, we can at least surely give the starter some credit for the UNDER, even if there is a chance he deserves little.
Playoffs can be a different animal so let’s stick with regular season.
Overall, it can be said, at least over the last dozen years or so that UNDERS are more likely to come during early games and as the time start gets later we start to see OVERs bring it more even. That’s over 30,000 games and while overall there were more UNDERs than OVERs, the percentage remains close.
But let’s get more specific. Here’s what I have…
DeGrom is 68-64-7, just less than even if you bet the same unit on the UNDER.
The daytime performance improves it to 26-19-2 netting better than +5.5 units while night shows 42-45-5 for a loss of about -6 units.
More specifically, deGrom is on the road, where he is 31-34-5, for a loss of nearly 5 units betting the same unit on the UNDER.
Again, daytime improves this to 13-8-2 for a gain of about +4.5 units while the road night games are 18-26-3, down about -9.5 units for UNDER bettors.
Scherzer has been around longer and is 163-149-17, just over +6 units betting the same unit on that UNDER.
Likewise, the daytime performance improves the UNDER bet to 67-43-6 netting upwards of +20 units while he is 96-106-11, down nearly 14 units, at night.
At home, he is 79-73-8 for a small profit betting that same unit on the UNDER.
Once again, daytime improves this to 37-26-2 for a nearly +9 unit gain while the nighttime UNDER record is 42-47-6, down nearly -7.5 units betting the same unit each time.
These two have met twice in the regular season, both in 2017.
April 28
th they scored 12 runs, the line was 7.5 and Scherzer was home.
Sept 24
th, they scored 5 runs, the line was 6 and deGrom was home.
The OVER was at night and the UNDER result was, you guessed it, an early game.
Good Luck.