Even though it appears to be an NCAA tournament top-heavy with talent among the 1-seeds (Gonzaga, Duke, Virginia, UNC), there is always value out in the futures market.
Here is a look at 10 teams our college basketball experts feel offer betting value in this year's field.
Odds courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Monday morning. As always, shop around for the best price. Gonzaga Bulldogs (+450)
Schultz: This is the most talented roster that Mark Few has had in Spokane, and it's not even close. Rui Hachimura (20.1 PPG on 60.9 percent shooting) is a matchup nightmare who can face up, post up and create off the bounce with his outstanding first step. San Jose State transfer Brandon Clarke(16.5 PPG, 8.3 RPG) is a jumping jack who can score from the mid-post and perimeter, but also make a play off the bounce. And Killian Tillie -- finally healthy after enduring a foot injury -- has great touch around the basket and protects the rim with his length and timing. Zach Norvell (15.3 PPG) -- another pro -- is a burly left-handed shooting guard who can score with anyone and from just about anywhere.
Gonzaga executes the premier half-court offense in America, per KenPom, which includes scoring a nation-best 88.8 PPG. Not only do the Bulldogs not turn the ball over, but they will turn you over with a suffocating brand of man-to-man defense that does not gamble and understands its rotations. Keep in mind too, that the Zags already beat a full-strength Duke team to win the Maui Invitational.
Johnson: The least attractive title bet last year relative to its price seemed to be Virginia -- and then the Cavaliers lost to 16-seed UMBC by 20 points. They play at a painful-to-watch pace, but that snail's pace ranks second in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency. They are the only team in the tournament that ranks top-five in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, and they make 3s at a 40.9 percent clip which ranks fourth best in the country. Opponents make 3s at just a 27.2 percent clip which is the best opponent 3-point rate we saw this year.
Virginia has elite talent, including projected lottery pick De'Andre Hunter, but has become this strange contrarian 1-seed to win it all despite being one of the best three teams in the country. Tennessee and Purdue on the other side of the South region don't scare me much (I would make Virginia at least a 3.5-point favorite over both) and +600 implies that they win the title 14.3 percent of the time, but my projections come in at 19.3 percent (true line +418). The UMBC redemption tour starts now.
Kezirian: I am willing to overlook the poor performance in the SEC title game, which was a classic flat spot, after the emotional win over Kentucky. The Vols have impressed me with their physicality and late-game poise, relying on upperclassmen. I think their athleticism is off the charts, and they have the right combination to win it all.
Fortenbaugh: Dripping with starting-five experience, the Seminoles check all the boxes when it comes to identifying a tournament value play. FSU's ACC championship game loss to Duke on Saturday night marked just the second defeat sustained by the Noles in a 54-day stretch that included a win over Virginia, two victories over Virginia Tech and a road blowout of Syracuse. The Seminoles rank ninth in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency metric and landed in the Gonzaga quadrant, which features the weakest of the No. 1 seeds. Look out for senior guard Terance Mann from deep.
Johnson: Doug and I spoke on the Behind the Bets podcast before conference tournaments last week about embracing the variance of the 3-point shot. I had mentioned Auburn as a team to follow closely in their upcoming tournaments because such a high rate of their field goal attempts come from behind the 3-point line. The Tigers also knock them down at a 38.1-percent clip (27th in the nation) and score 33.9 points per game from long range (only The Citadel and Winthrop score more).
Auburn ranked top-12 in both the coaches poll and AP poll preseason. They have the talent to hang with any team in the country anyway, but when they are knocking down 3s, they are extremely tough to beat. The Tigers lead the entire country in turnover rate (24.8 percent), forcing them on nearly one of every four opponent possessions. Give me this squad in a navigable Midwest region all day.
Is it possible they take 40 3s against New Mexico State in Round 1 and only make eight of them in a loss? Absolutely. If they stay hot, however, expect to see some upsets -- and we will be sitting pretty with 60-1.
Kezirian: It is nearly impossible to find value in a one-way betting option this late in the season but I think the Hokies offer an enticing situation. Virginia Tech welcomes back its best player, point guard Justin Robinson, who missed the last 12 games with an injured left foot. The Hokies have a decent draw as a 4-seed and could get hot, as they lead all major conference teams in 3-point shooting percentage.
Schultz: I thought about Big 12 stalwarts Kansas State and Iowa State here, as well as ACC standouts Florida State and Virginia Tech. But if we're looking at long shots, why not consider Nevada, at 100-1. Fresh off an Elite Eight appearance last year, the Wolfpack feature an elite player in senior Jordan Caroline (his 18 double-doubles rank sixth nationally), as well as two terrific wings in Caleb (19.2 PPG) and Cody Martin (49.8 percent shooting). Maybe Nevada hasn't been quite the juggernaut we expected, but don't sleep on Eric Musselman's electric 29-4 team with the experience and talent to once again inflict some serious damage in March -- and in April.
Kezirian: The ACC's three 1-seeds receive the headlines, but Louisville has played well in spots. The Cardinals led both Duke and Virginia in the second half -- they also blew those games, which is why they're a 7-seed and a title long shot. I just think there's a path to the Final Four, as they are more than capable of beating Michigan State.
Kezirian: The Pac-12 has its flaws, but the Ducks have demonstrated a high ceiling during their current eight-game win streak, which included a conference tournament title. They have plenty of size and Payton Pritchard can provide the shot-making ability needed for crunch time. Oregon is a 12-seed, but it could be favored in the first two rounds and maybe even the Sweet 16, if Virginia stumbles early.
Fortenbaugh: The Terriers ripped off 20 straight victories dating back to their Dec. 19 loss at Mississippi State and in the process earned a 7-seed for the Southern Conference's highest tournament placement since 1985. Wofford ranks second in the NCAA in 3-point percentage (.416) and an impressive 12th in KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency metric. Consider this a scratch-off lottery ticket with far more upside than what's being offered at your local gas station.
Johnson: There isn't much to this, but Huskies' head coach Mike Hopkins was an assistant at Syracuse from 1995 until 2017. He took over the Washington basketball program and immediately made an impact installing the famous Jim Boeheim 2-3 zone (UW ranked 20th in adjusted defensive efficiency this year). The difficulty for teams to prepare for the zone defense on a short turnaround is no secret, and we have seen Syracuse make deep runs in the tournament in recent years despite lacking elite talent (two Final Four trips in their past three tournament appearances as a 10-seed and a four-seed, for example). It's ultimately unlikely the Huskies are cutting down the nets in April, but as a potential long shot priced in this range, they are my favorite choice. Wofford Terriers (300-1)
Fortenbaugh: The Terriers ripped off 20 straight victories dating back to their Dec. 19 loss at Mississippi State and in the process earned a 7-seed for the Southern Conference's highest tournament placement since 1985. Wofford ranks second in the NCAA in 3-point percentage (.416) and an impressive 12th in KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency metric. Consider this a scratch-off lottery ticket with far more upside than what's being offered at your local gas station. Washington Huskies (500-1)
Johnson: There isn't much to this, but Huskies' head coach Mike Hopkins was an assistant at Syracuse from 1995 until 2017. He took over the Washington basketball program and immediately made an impact installing the famous Jim Boeheim 2-3 zone (UW ranked 20th in adjusted defensive efficiency this year). The difficulty for teams to prepare for the zone defense on a short turnaround is no secret, and we have seen Syracuse make deep runs in the tournament in recent years despite lacking elite talent (two Final Four trips in their past three tournament appearances as a 10-seed and a four-seed, for example). It's ultimately unlikely the Huskies are cutting down the nets in April, but as a potential long shot priced in this range, they are my favorite choice.
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2019 NCAA tournament: 10 best title value bets 🏀
Gonzaga Bulldogs (+450)
Virginia Cavaliers (6-1)
Tennessee Volunteers (16-1)
Florida State Seminoles (30-1)
Auburn Tigers (60-1)
Virginia Tech Hokies (80-1)
Nevada Wolf Pack (100-1)
Louisville Cardinals (100-1)
Wofford Terriers (300-1)
Washington Huskies (500-1)
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