Originally Posted by
danshan11
modeling is a thing of the past, it really is. look at prediction tracker there are some very reliable sources to model a line. there is no need to pull data except for Individual player data for injuries.
you can model a line in 2 seconds just use SaG or Ken
the only thing that counts today is the adjustments. I would argue it is just not necessary to model individual games like it was 5-10 years ago.
Knicks 82.5
Pacers 91.5
that is 9 add 2.5 or 3 for HC
gives you 11.5 to 12
you dont need a model to do that, you can do that with Sag, now the trick is adjusting for injury
Twolves 90
Nuggets 92
Nuggets Home worth say 3 to 3.5
gives you Nuggets by 5 to 5.5
so why is it 9 or 9.5? Towns and Wiggins
Wiggins is worth -1 and Towns is worth 3.5
add 4.5 to Wolves and magic you got 9.5 to 10 and I have no adjustment for rest, I only use played yesterday as a criteria for rest, most
use a 3 in 4 or something like that, I believe the line only accounts for yesterday on rest, personal opinion
see no computer or model there except my algo for player ratings
you dont need a model, you need player data and adjustments accordingly