1. #1
    bettingman6
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    A teamís past ATS record

    Is there any shown correlation between a teamís past ATS record and its ATS record for the rest of the year?

    In other words, if an NFL team is 7-1 ATS so far, is there any reason to think theyíd be better than 4-4 ATS the rest of the year?

    ATS records are a good way of showing who was underrated or overrated by bookies earlier in the year. But wouldnít bookies adjust their ratings so that the teams that were undervalued 4 weeks ago might not be undervalued anymore?

  2. #2
    eaglesfan371
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    No, if anything it can be bad to continue taking that side. For example, when a team ALWAYS hits the over on a total and public starts noticing, books will raise the total by a couple points over what their analytics say since they know the public will be heavy on the over next game.
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  3. #3
    bettingman6
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    Quote Originally Posted by eaglesfan371 View Post
    No, if anything it can be bad to continue taking that side. For example, when a team ALWAYS hits the over on a total and public starts noticing, books will raise the total by a couple points over what their analytics say since they know the public will be heavy on the over next game.

    Yeah, Iíve always wondered if a team might actually become overrated by bookies after covering the spread a few times in a row. Especially if some of the covers are straight-up wins.

  4. #4
    jjgold
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    Everything is factored into a line. Itís all you need to know

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  5. #5
    asiagambler
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    You can always check for yourself. You would need to learn SDQL (not really that hard).

    https://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query

    IMO, more important is ats margin though I'm certain most oddsmakers already incorporate that in their ratings

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