1. #1
    rclang64
    rclang64's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-22-19
    Posts: 304
    Betpoints: 661

    Slow and steady to win the race?

    Follow me here, and I know this is very unconventional, lol.
    I made a spreadsheet of the last 212 college basketball games for the over/under. 1 hour before games start, I go to the site odds shark and pull up the consensus for all of the O/U games. I tested this for the ATS and it is definitely a bust. I circle every game that is 60% and over on the consensus and put it in the spreadsheet with the O/U line. I logged all of the results and it is at 121-87-4 (removed pushes). Now, this is a crapload of games (11 days worth is all), but 58.17% isn't bad. I have only been putting $10 bets per game, so it is a very low yield, but I haven't lost anything, only gained. What I plan to do is take 35% of my bankroll (using this number for a full week) and divide that over the amount of games for each day that are over the 60% consensus. With 20 games in a day and a $2k bankroll, that would be 700/20, making it $35 per game. I would need to do a consistent bet though through the week to make up for any losses and hold true to the winning percentage. Again, this would be a really slow method, but I think worth it. 140 games in a week, at $35 a games, with 58% winning, and an average of -110, yields $500 for the week. I find that way better than losing for sure, lmao.

    Thoughts? Rip me if you want, that is fine, cause I'm just spitballing here. I would upload my spreadsheet, but I'm not sure if I can. I tracked NBA O/U and ATS this way, and CBB ATS and neither of those work out like this.

  2. #2
    Foxx
    Foxx's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-25-11
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    Pretty small sample. Don't quit your day job.

  3. #3
    Chi_archie
    GASPING FOR AIR
    Chi_archie's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 07-22-08
    Posts: 63,130
    Betpoints: 2380

    212 not a big enough sample size and 58%+ not enough SD to be not just due to variance

  4. #4
    rclang64
    rclang64's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-22-19
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    Betpoints: 661

    Quote Originally Posted by Foxx View Post
    Pretty small sample. Don't quit your day job.
    Definitely not, I make it good as an electrician

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