The odds are falling fast. It was +300 last week, only +200 currently. It's the best movie of the year by a long shot.
Roma is the favorite but it's basically about as riveting as watching some Mexican lady clean your apartment. (Oops, accidentally gave away the plot.) Critics love it because it's got a foreign Director (they're in vogue these days) and because it's filmed in black and white......so it must be artistic. Academy voters, unlike critics, are actual filmmakers and do not yet consider Netflix to be cinema (it's TV) so they will shun Roma.
Spike Lee is the single biggest racist in Hollywood. He's ridiculously full of himself. Widely disliked, not because he's black but because he's a miserable A-Hole. No chance for him......except for the adapted screenplay award perhaps.
A Star Is Born was the front runner long ago but everyone tired of the insincerity of Lady Gaga and Bradley Cooper. Don't believe me? Watch this....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3je-VIvRnXQ
Nauseating. And Cooper seems to have lost a bit of humility as well.
Bohemian Rhapsody? The original Director got fired and has since been accused of wide-scale pedophilia. Uh, no!
The Favourite? Not likely. No one has seen it.
Vice? Christian Bale was good but the story was too political.
Green Book is your winner. Roma and Klansman camps mounted a massive smear campaign against this movie....and it kept a lot of viewers away. However, anyone who's seen this movie knows that it is an instant classic.
(Green)Book it!