[will2survive]

We know the Rams shouldn't be in this game to begin with. Tom Brady is playing with a massive chip on his shoulder; just like he did at Michigan University when Drew Henson was supposedly the man. Brady is playing some of his best football in a long time. We know last season, the Pats were jobbed by Coach Belichick for not playing Malcolm Butler in Super Bowl LII. Belichick robbed Brady of his 6th Super Bowl win. That isn't the time for a disciplinary action. You saw what ended up happening to Jimmy G.

Bottom line: Tom Brady is the greatest and most motivated athlete in the history of sports and has been super verbal about how the Pats were being considered underdogs in the playoffs and he's too old.

Gronk is starting to get his swag back. Edelman is playing in this Super Bowl,unlike last season. Sony Michel keeps the defense guessing as he's been delivering all season long. While Michel has been a major force, James White is Brady's security blanket and this is a back that can be targeted over 10 times and most importantly, delivers when needed. While Brady's legacy is cemented as the 🐐, he's playing angry and cocky. This is a player playing at the top of his game at 41!!!

Goff on the other hand, hasn't been as consistent. We know Todd Gurley is one if not the best back in the game but injuries and lack of consistency are a factor. I know Suh, Donald, and Talib are all forces, but the Super Bowl is Tom Brady's backyard and a mere 2 points is nothing. When I saw the line, I wanted to laugh as New England will win this game quite easily. The line could be New England -9 and I still like the Pats. You want to make some coin and fatten your bankroll? New England -2, 2.5....doesn't make a goddamn difference. In Tom we Trust!

[Hman]

Some solid insight.

Thanks will

[cincinnatikid513]

pats win by 1 point

[DJK]

I posted this on another thread, but I will post it here again in hopes of saving some on SBR even though it may go against my cause as more money bet on the Pats can only help me and not hurt me.

If it wasn't for the idiot Atlanta coaches, both Kyle Shanahan and Dan Quinn, New England would have been PERFECT 0-6 ATS in Super Bowls when they were favored. So, they go 1-7 after this Super Bowl and I can accept that.

The average margin of the victory in the eight prior Super Bowls is 4.3 points. The largest margin was the Eagles winning last year by eight. The largest margin of victory for the New England Patriots was six points, because they won on the first possession of overtime, against Atlanta after trailing 28-3. The Patriots are 3-3 straight up and 1-5 against the spread (the cover being against Atlanta as a 3-point favorite) in the Super Bowl when favored.

[MinnesotaFats]

Brady can't score versus Wade Phillips

Question is, do you think NE can win scoring less than 24?

[TheMoneyShot]

I would hope Wade could come up with a good defensive game plan giving him 2 weeks to plan.

Either Wade is right on... or right off. Never in between.

[will2survive]

Some solid insight

Thanks will

No problem. I wasnt trying to be technical and detailed as I could type novels.lol. Just whatever I was thinking.

To me, this is a " slam dunk". Los Angeles is a fine team and Brady is going to have to "crack the code", so to speak. Michel has been more than I thought he would be and Gronk has been banged up. That said, when push comes to shove, against an awesome Kansas City team, you saw Brady go right to Gronk and Gronk is overpowering after the catch.

Also, his numbers aren't overwhelming but James White is the guy that Brady seems to lean on (aside from Edelman). As long as Brady has those 2 safety valves, New England is the easy choice.

The Rams will look to prove that they belong after the botched call with the Saints. They're a great team but I dont think that Jared Goff is ready for this type of spotlight and if anyone has seen Brady on the NFL Channel, he's more than ready.

The Saints, who own the Superdome, would've made this game super-competitive, but the Rams are here and unlike their Super Bowl against Atlanta, New England will come out of the gates fast.

The matchup is nice due to experience but the odds makers are giving the Patriots no respect whatsoever.

[will2survive]

I would hope Wade could come up with a good defensive game plan giving him 2 weeks to plan.

Either Wade is right on... or right off. Never in between.

This is spot on. No in the middle with Phillips

[DJK]

No problem. I wasnt trying to be technical and detailed as I could type novels.lol. Just whatever I was thinking.

To me, this is a " slam dunk". Los Angeles is a fine team and Brady is going to have to "crack the code", so to speak. Michel has been more than I thought he would be and Gronk has been banged up. That said, when push comes to shove, against an awesome Kansas City team, you saw Brady go right to Gronk and Gronk is overpowering after the catch.

Also, his numbers aren't overwhelming but James White is the guy that Brady seems to lean on (aside from Edelman). As long as Brady has those 2 safety valves, New England is the easy choice.

The Rams will look to prove that they belong after the botched call with the Saints. They're a great team but I dont think that Jared Goff is ready for this type of spotlight and if anyone has seen Brady on the NFL Channel, he's more than ready.

The Saints, who own the Superdome, would've made this game super-competitive, but the Rams are here and unlike their Super Bowl against Atlanta, New England will come out of the gates fast.

The matchup is nice due to experience but the odds makers are giving the Patriots no respect whatsoever.

I'm sorry to say this but your analysis is flawed at many points, but I will just comment on two points.

A team is not awesome when they have no defense and have a head coach who has the worst playoff track record who could not call a lousy time out when it was so obvious that his defense was totally gassed. Andy was probably so busy peeing in his pants that he didn't know what to think. I have no clue what Andy was saving his time outs for but it's a moot point now.

You do realize that if that IDIOT FORD did not line up offside, then the Pats are not in this Super Bowl either as it was Brady's 3rd pick in that game. You cannot say the Rams would not have been in the Super Bowl because of the non-PI call to benefit your point-of-view when NE shouldn't be in it either.

If Brady throws 3 picks against the shitty KC defense, then how many picks do you think he will throw against the Rams? He better pray he does not since it will be pick 6 not like against KC.

[DJK]

This is spot on. No in the middle with Phillips

Not in the last two games Brady played against Wade's defense in recent years, 2015 and 2016. Brady played horribly in both of those games.

If the Rams score 20+ points, then NE is finished as Brady scored 18 or less in either games against Wade's defense.

[DJK]

will2survive, you are following the hype about New England. Experience, GOAT, hoody, etc, etc. Whatever.

Anything can happen but harder choice covers and it's the Rams.


If I didn't know better, the public is going to get massacred this Sunday on both the Pats and the Over.

[DJK]

@will2survive, since you seem so confident about your Pats pick, how much did you bet on the Pats?

I'm asking since it wouldn't be so nice to talk about how much of gimmie it is to take the Pats when you aren't even betting a significant amount yourself. So, did you?

[DrunkHorseplayer]

Brady is playing well but not outstanding but he's getting superb protection; the Rams have a better DL and the Patriots don't blow out anybody in Super Bowls. Tough call but it looks like the Rams.

[Frank Mills]

I don't see a blowout here at all

[DJK]

... You cannot say the Rams would not have been in the Super Bowl because of the non-PI call to benefit your point-of-view when NE shouldn't be in it either.

I just finished watching the NFC Championship game and New Orleans complaining about the non-PI call that most likely robbed them their trip to this Super Bowl isn't 100% legitimate because of what happened 4 minutes earlier.

At about the 6:20 mark in the fourth quarter when Goff was running towards the goal line, his face mask was clearly grabbed and not just grazed at the 2 yard line and no penalty flag was thrown. Had it been flagged as it should have been like what Troy Aikman said on the TV that the refs completely missed it, the ball would have been placed on the 1 yard line with the new downs. There is no way in hell the Rams do not score a TD from the 1 yard line, which then the Rams would have been leading by 4 points and even if the PI call was made right after the 2 minute mark, there is no guarantee that the Saints would have scored a TD in the closing seconds.

Therefore, two non calls are wash and the Rams won their game fair and square.

On the other hand, the Pats needed an idiot player on KC to bail them out to make their trip to the Super Bowl and I'm sure they all know it deep down.

[DJK]

Found a new guy to follow on twitter. Ben Fawkes.

He tweeted the following on 28th. I can only guess that William Hill blinked and they were the first book to move the line to Pats -3 and they got lots of money on the Rams and kind of evening out the action. I guess that is the only way the books are getting more money on the Rams.



Breakdown at @WilliamHillUS books:
Sunday, Jan. 20: 94% of all spread $$ on #GoPats
99% of ML $$

Thurs., Jan. 24: 86% of spread $$ on NE
79% ML

Mon., Jan. 28: 57% spread $$ on NE
56% ML $$ on LAR

[DJK]

I just watched the first quarter of Pats vs Chargers.

It's very simple. If the Rams can shut down NE's run game like they did against the Cowboys and the Saints, then all they need to do is create just a little pressure on Brady.

Man, Brady is like a little girl where when he sees the tiniest pressure on him he becomes really jittery and wings the ball which can easily lead to picks.

I guess the Rams D line is the key to the game.

Chargers lost because they could not stop the Pats run game and they could not pressure Brady and worse they could not protect Rivers.

So, it's all about the lines in football I guess.

I'm going to watch NE vs Detroit and NE vs Tennessee and see what happened there.

But in the end, it's all just a waste of time since I already made my bets and nothing's going to change them.

[DJK]

I watched some of both NE @ Detroit and NE @ Tennessee and it's pretty simple.

You don't need to sack Brady. Pressure him just tiny and he makes errant throws as he is just a statue and has ZERO mobility.

I don't know if NE's O line got much better since they played Detroit and Tennessee, but if Detroit and Tennessee could create pressures on Brady then I don't see why the Rams cannot. If that happens, then NE is screwed regardless how great Brady is or how great Bill is.

Then, it's left to Goff and McVay to score just enough points to win the game.

[DJK]

If I was McVay, then it's rather simple. Just watch the NE vs Tennessee game and duplicate what Tennessee did.

He is supposed to be a very smart coach, so that shouldn't be too difficult to figure out.

[Mackballs]

DJK get some sleep man Jesus

[DJK]

I have the perk of working from home without the set hours, so I work whenever I want and I sleep whenever I want as long as I get my jobs done.

I had work to do last night, so I was up working while posting and I slept since my last post until just now. But it's true that if I'm wasting too much time on here, and there are others who are spending way more time than me and it's an addiction. At least I will be done with it when the Super Bowl is over.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

OP is one of the biggest fades on the forum..

Rams it is

[Snowball]

Patriots will win.

They are peaking in all aspects and have huge mental edge.

[jjgold]

Everybody wants to be a hero

[DJK]

Patriots will win.

They are peaking in all aspects and have huge mental edge.

What is that huge mental edge that you speak of? Super Bowl experience?

Brady didn't have any Super Bowl experience when he beat the Rams in his first Super Bowl.

If it's something else, then can you please explain? If it makes sense, then I don't know if I can hedge my Rams bet but I could try.

[will2survive]

OP is one of the biggest fades on the forum..

Rams it is

Okay, JAKEPEAVY..... We'll come back to this thread when the Super Bowl is over. I'll be here. Let's see if you will when you LOSE.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Okay, JAKEPEAVY..... We'll come back to this thread when the Super Bowl is over. I'll be here. Let's see if you will when you LOSE.

even squares cash now and then but I'll fade any bet that you feel strongly about and come out ahead in the long run.

[Snowball]

What is that huge mental edge that you speak of? Super Bowl experience?

Brady didn't have any Super Bowl experience when he beat the Rams in his first Super Bowl.

If it's something else, then can you please explain? If it makes sense, then I don't know if I can hedge my Rams bet but I could try.

Hedge out man.
Patriots are 1000% confident.
They will execute with precision in every facet of the game.
Pass Rush will be there. Backfield will be there. OL will be there.
Special Teams and Blocking will be there. Get out. Get out NOW.

[eddycash]

DJK I thought you were smart but all this yapping makes me think you outsmarted yourself by betting the Rams.

[pimike]

I see some are missing key info on this match up.

[DJK]

I see some are missing key info on this match up.

You are a respected capper on SBR. At least that I know.

Can you please elaborate what key info we are missing and what your lean is on the sides? Thank you.

[Maw011]

The league wont let the game be a blowout. It is not good for rating. Both conference championships went to OT. I hope the pats don't win but I think they will... it will be close and high scoring. Lets just hope the refs do a better job.

[DJK]

DJK I thought you were smart but all this yapping makes me think you outsmarted yourself by betting the Rams.

Perhaps I have, but I like my pick and sticking with it.

I have asked the others this. Aren't you a bit concerned that the vast majority on SBR are on the Pats and it's in line with the public betting percentage where it's totally lop-sided on the Pats?

Just maybe it's still early and much more money on the Rams later could change all that, and if that happens then I guess I'm on the wrong side and I will be sad. But, if the betting pattern does not change by the kick off, then I'm set.

[eddycash]

The superbowl is the one game where it doesn't pay to be sharp. Vegas can make their money in many different ways on this game. You are correct that there will be a flood of money come Saturday and Sunday. The +3's are showing up and will be soon available everywhere.

[pimike]

You are a respected capper on SBR. At least that I know.

Can you please elaborate what key info we are missing and what your lean is on the sides? Thank you.

This is one game where I don’t give my pick. People love to bet this with there heart. I feel this is one game to enjoy your wager on a side you are rooting for. That being said there is money to be made if you ignore the false hype.