Originally Posted by
danshan11
the problem for me with confidence is quantifying it. now for luck, man luck is the king of sportsbetting it just is without doubt. you can have the best model in the world and in the short term just get crushed by luck. We refer to luck as variance and usually stay on course when it goes against us but at some point a good numbers guy needs to look at if it is luck or bad modeling.
OP is a nice guy and I think there are basically two type winners
winner 1 beats the line and wins by beating the line over a huge sample size
symptoms of this guy: beats the line on over 75% of games, is able to tell you what the line will be way ahead of the line coming out
winner 2 has a way of finding some information or a way to combine info that is not in the line to make a decision that creates a winners at a higher rate than the vig overall long term.
does anyone know the symptoms of these guys?
people say stuff like
has more steals than the other team. this is surely important but is it a deciding factor and if so does the team with more steals cover at a rate higher than the vig
team has won 20 games in a row. teams that have won 20 games in a row are 50/50 ATS in their next game
best defense in the business, teams with the best defense are 50-50 ATS in their next game
you cant stop them their offense is unstoppable and again these teams are 50-50 ATS in their next game
over last 5 games they have been over 4-1 and in the next game they are 50-50 over under
all these things are just cool stats
True enough...agree with everything you said...but stats are only part of the equation in picking consistent winners...I'm not very proud of my record obviously...but the ship can be turned around just as quick as when it loses its radar. I'm the king of jinx...lol...I'm sure a lot of us feel that way. But, without divulging the information that I can find on a particular play...it kind of leaves you in the dark of why I have the confidence in a particular play. Since you use the word EDGE and I use the word CONFIDENCE. I will give this information out and why I came to the conclusion on this particular play...without all the boring and cool stats that everyone can find...In my next post.
Hint? it's a game that I missed earlier. Again...not that it is a LOCK... but why I have the confidence in this play