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Best Bets For The NFL Playoffs Divisional Round
Best bets for the NFL playoffs divisional round
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The divisional round of the NFL playoffs has arrived, and unlike wild-card weekend -- which featured games with close lines -- this weekend's games have well-delineated favorites in each contest.Each game offers at least a few potential betting angles, and our experts -- Preston Johnson, Warren Sharp and Mike Clay -- are here to break down all four games, sharing best bets as well as the spots you should avoid.
All lines courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, as of Friday morning
Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5)
Saturday, 4:35 p.m. (NBC)
Total: 57
Money line: Colts +190; Chiefs -240
Sharp: In this battle of two very good offenses, any defensive stop or any mistake could make the difference. That could present a problem for the Colts. I respect the strides their defense has made and the performances they've recorded, particularly during their 10-1 streak. When you look deeper into their schedule, however, it's fairly apparent how they've performed so well. The Colts' defense played only two top-15 offenses all year and played the overall easiest schedule of opposing offenses. Patrick Mahomes should have success, as the Colts' pass rush ranks No. 29 despite playing the easiest schedule of opposing offensive lines. The Chiefs have a top-5 pass-protecting offensive line.
The big question is how the Colts will approach this game offensively. Do they try to keep the Chiefs' offense off the field and use their tremendous offensive line and respectable run game to take advantage of the NFL's worst run defense? Or do they use the NFL's most successful passing offense over the last month of the season and turn to the air? If Frank Reich's history tells us anything, he'll take a balanced approach at the start of the game and then, later on, accentuate the areas which have been the most difficult for the Chiefs' defense to counter. I cannot wait to watch this battle of two creative play-callers with two highly talented quarterbacks.
Lean: Tyreek Hill over 80.5 receiving yards (-110)
Johnson: The perception is that the Colts will be a public underdog, and the connotation of "public" in sports betting is almost always negative. Though it is probably true that public sides won't turn a profit in the grand scheme of things, anything can obviously happen in one game. Don't let the public perception sway your betting process for this game. The Colts and the Chargers were the two supposed public underdogs last weekend.
It may sound like I am prefacing my love for Indianapolis this Saturday, but I actually lean to the Kansas City side at the current number. My projections for this game are Chiefs -6.3 with a total of 56.4. The narrative that Andy Reid is awful in the playoffs exists for real reasons, though. Kansas City has lost its last six home playoff games, and Reid has certainly played a part in a few of those by choking away big leads late in games. Look no further than last season, when the Chiefs went into halftime with a 21-3 lead at home against the Titans. They were outscored 19-0 in the second half and lost the game 22-21. The last time Kansas City hosted Indianapolis in the playoffs, in 2013, Alex Smith and company jumped to a 31-10 lead before eventually losing to Andrew Luck 45-44. This time around, MVP candidate Patrick Mahomes should give the Chiefs an aggressive edge they didn't have in the past with Smith, but only time will tell.
I'm interested in seeing whether Indianapolis will take the ball out of Luck's hands to attack the Chiefs' weak run defense (31st in NFL giving up 5 yards per rush). If such a strategy were successful, the Colts would likely control the time of possession and keep the league's best offense off the field. We can anticipate plenty of points being scored, so there should be opportunities to bet this matchup in-game, but I'm otherwise passing on this game unless enough Colts money comes in to drive this number down to Chiefs -4.
Pick: Pass
Clay: Andrew Luck over (+130)/under (-150) 2.5 TD passes
Luck has thrown three or more touchdowns in nine games this season. The Colts are averaging 55 dropbacks per game (76 percent pass) in their six losses this season, compared to 35 per game (55 percent pass) in their 11 wins. Get this: 100 percent of the Colts' offensive touchdowns have been scored through the air in games they've lost. The Colts are obviously the underdogs in Kansas City this week, so it's fair to say Luck will be throwing a ton and a large chunk of their scores will come on passes.
The Kansas City defense, meanwhile, is allowing 3.1 touchdowns per game (third worst in the league) and has allowed three or more passing touchdowns in five games. This is worth the risk at +130, but you'll need to hope Marlon Mack stays out of the end zone (at least as a rusher).
Pick: Over 2.5 TD passes (+130)
Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Rams (-7)
Saturday, 8:15 p.m. (FOX)
Total: 50
Money line: Cowboys +260; Rams -330
Johnson: The only team worse than Kansas City at defending the run this season was the Rams. It's worth noting that both of those teams found themselves sitting on big leads in multiple games, often playing a soft prevent zone that was susceptible to longer rushes from their opponents. Regardless, I would typically expect the Cowboys to attack the Rams' defensive front with running back Ezekiel Elliott, but head coach Jason Garrett seems to stray away from the obvious at times in big games.
On the other side of the ball, Dallas ranks third against the run, allowing just 3.7 yards per attempt. The effectiveness of Rams running back Todd Gurley II is already in question due to his health. Gurley missed Weeks 16 and 17 with a knee injury and then had a bye over wild-card weekend to rest. He returned to practice this week, but he's been limited. Assuming he is good to go Saturday, my projections for the game are -9.6 with a total of 51.3. At -7, the Rams are worth a smaller bet, and if it were to drop to -6.5, I'd be scooping that line up for a full-sized wager.
For as much flak as Sean McVay took earlier this week for being the sole reason certain coaches were being hired in the NFL, the guy is a ridiculously good coach. I would trust him over most (especially against Garrett) to game plan for my squad in the playoffs.
Pick: Rams -7 smaller bet (full bet at -6.5)
Sharp: The Cowboys' secondary is vastly overrated. Seattle could have won last week's game had the Seahawks moved more aggressively to pass the ball, as they averaged 8.6 yards per attempt and Russell Wilson delivered a 106 passer rating. I definitely believe the Rams will be able to pass on the Cowboys. The issue becomes whether or not the Rams will be able to run on one of the NFL's best run defenses. Over the second half of the season, the Rams played three teams that ranked in the top 10 in run defense. They lost all three of those games: 45-35 against the Saints, 15-6 vs. the Bears and 30-23 vs. the Eagles.
The Cowboys can keep this game close, but to do so, they will need to ensure that two things happen. First, they will need to run the ball effectively on early downs and in short-yardage situations. The Cowboys' run offense is nowhere near as efficient as it has been in years past. Fortunately, they're facing the worst run defense remaining on the NFC side of the playoffs. The Rams rank No. 28 against the run this year, and they played the easiest schedule of run offenses to close the season after their bye, including both the No. 32 and 31 rushing offenses in their last two games.
When playing against good run offenses, the Rams' run defense routinely gives up high success rates and well-above-average rates of explosive rushing, which bodes extremely well for the Cowboys. They will be able to continue to run the ball even if Dak Prescott plays below expectations.
Pick: Ezekiel Elliott scores a TD (-140)
Clay: Todd Gurley over (-110)/under (-110) 82.5 rushing yards
Gurley has been out since mid-December and, assuming he plays this week, seems unlikely to be a full go. Earlier this week, Rams coach Sean McVay said "you can expect to see a good balance of both" backs against Dallas. Of course, by "both," McVay is referring to Gurley and C.J. Anderson, who averaged 7 yards per carry on 43 attempts in Gurley's place during Weeks 16-17. Even if you're bold and expect Gurley to be a full go, consider that he's failed to clear 82 rushing yards in half of his 14 games this season. The Dallas defense, meanwhile, is allowing a terrific 3.8 yards per carry to running backs this season, and only four backs have cleared 62 rushing yards in a single game against the Cowboys (Marlon Mack, Saquon Barkley, Adrian Peterson and Chris Carson). Note that Dallas played the latter three backs twice twice and not one of them cleared 35 yards in the other meeting.
The pick: Gurley under 82.5 rushing yards (-110)
Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots (-4)
Sunday, 1:05 p.m. (CBS)
Total: 47.5
Money line: Chargers +170; Patriots -200
Sharp: Last week's Chargers game included the Ravens producing two turnovers in their first five drives, missing a field goal and calling some truly bizarre deeper passes to start the game. It was a strange start to the game that put the Ravens in a huge hole, and they couldn't dig out of it. With Tom Bradyat quarterback as opposed to Lamar Jackson, the Patriots won't have such troubles. The Chargers bring their top-10 pass defense to New England, but the Patriots have beaten the last four top-10 pass defenses they've faced by at least seven points. The Patriots are a more pass-oriented team, but there is a chance they will stay balanced due to the strong Chargers pass rush.
The Chargers' offense hasn't cleared 29 points in their last five games, and Philip Rivers hasn't exceeded 220 passing yards in four of those five games. Further complicating things for the Chargers' offense: the Patriots use the most man coverage of any team in the NFL, and Rivers struggles much more against man coverage than zone coverage. There are also question marks surrounding the health of Melvin Gordon. The Chargers' rushing offense and passing offense both ranked in the bottom 10 in explosiveness over the last month of the season.
Pick: Under 23 in the first half
Johnson: My projections for this game are Patriots -3 and a total of 45.7. I made bets on the Chargers at +5 and +4.5 earlier in the week, but with the market currently at +4 across the board, the edge has diminished significantly. I've heard the media address their surprise this week at seeing Tom Brady and Bill Belichick laying only four points in Foxborough in a playoff game. The Patriots have had an extra week to rest and prepare, too. This spread isn't too low, though. The Chargers led the entire NFL in net yards per play this season (+0.9), compared to the Patriots' lesser mark of +0.2. New England also played one of the weakest schedules in the league.
This isn't the same type of Patriots team we are accustomed to seeing, either. Brady is 41 years old and Rob Gronkowski has lost a step. They have no real wide receiving threat after the NFL suspended Josh Gordon indefinitely; and defensively, they tied for 16th in opponent YPP with a cluster of teams (again, with a weak schedule). Early on in the week, the weather was expected to be a factor with potential snow in the forecast for Sunday, but that has since changed.
Chargers coach Anthony Lynn devised a phenomenal game plan against the Ravens, which I think speaks to not only the coaching staff's intelligence, but also their effort and organization. The Chargers played seven defensive backs for a majority of the snaps this past weekend to match the speed of Baltimore's run game with Jackson as a rushing threat under center. It worked brilliantly. There is also a rumor floating around that the Chargers knew whether Baltimore was running a pass or rushing play based on offensive lineman Ronnie Stanley's footing before each snap. It was something that they had picked up on going over film in preparation for the game. Lynn isn't Belichick, but that kind of attention to detail -- and subsequent implementation -- means I'm not too worried about a coaching disadvantage in this matchup. If this ticks back up to +4.5 or better, that's my buy point in the game.
Pick: Pass (Chargers bet at +4.5 or better)
Clay: First touchdown scored
These bets are always longshots, but identifying a good value can pay big dividends. The player who stands out here is Gronkowski. Gronkowski has missed time due to injury and has found paydirt only three times on the season. A closer look shows a bit of bad luck. Gronkowski sports a 4.7 OTD, which suggests he should be closer to five scores. Gronk "only" received seven end zone targets during the regular season (tied for 44th), but consider that, of the 70 players who received six-plus end zone targets, only Gronkowski and Texans TE Ryan Griffin failed to catch at least one. Including the postseason, Gronkowski entered 2018 having caught 50 of 86 career end zone targets (58 percent). It's been a rough season for Gronkowski, but he's worth it at the price.
The pick: Rob Gronkowski (+1200)
Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints (-8)
Sunday, 4:40 p.m. (FOX)
Total: 51.5
Money line: Eagles +300; Saints -400
Johnson: Imagine somebody gave you the opportunity to bet on a fair coin flip and offered you +105 on heads. We would all immediately accept. Well, what if the caveat was that a guy named Nick Foles was the one flipping the coin, and any time anybody has ever seen him flip a coin, he has always flipped tails. How comfortable are you now taking the heads +105 proposition? In theory, we should be just as confident, but that simply isn't the case.
This is where I sit in this Saints-Eagles game. My projections make the spread in the game closer to New Orleans -10. This would generally be enough of a discrepancy for me to look at backing the Saints for at least some amount of money, but I keep looking on the other side and seeing this guy Nick Foles who never loses playoff games. He never loses, let alone fails to cover a +8. I do not feel comfortable betting against this iteration of the Philadelphia Eagles. I really should, considering the number is short, but I don't. If the number comes down to -7, I will suck it up and get my money down on New Orleans, but until that buy point, I am staying away.
Foles does a great job of managing the game. He rarely turns the ball over and is able to keep opposing offenses off the field. This generally means fewer fireworks for the Eagles' offense, but it gives them the best opportunity to come out on top after 60 minutes. The defense is healthier, and the Saints' offense under Drew Brees tailed off down the stretch (20.25 points per game in their last four games). My projected total for the game is 50.2, but given the matchup and plan of attack I expect we'll see from Philadelphia, I do like the under some. 51 is a particularly key number for a total lined in this range, and as it's continued to trickle up (it was 50.5 Thursday morning and 51.5 by Friday), I will grab the under at 51.5.
Pick: Under 51.5 (Buy at Saints -7)
Sharp: The last two matchups between these teams are not representative of what we'll see on Sunday afternoon. On Nov. 18, the Eagles had recently acquired Golden Tate and were trying to figure out how to incorporate him into the offense. They gave him a 76 percent snap rate against the Saints and tried to force him targets. It didn't work. The Eagles were also without Darren Sprolesand had Carson Wentz at quarterback. I expect this game will be far more competitive. Foles is getting the ball out quickly, he's not taking sacks, he's throwing to guys who are open, he's making anticipation throws, he's not dropping his head in the pocket, he's keeping his eyes downfield and delivering and he is producing.
The Eagles' defense has not played a very strong starting quarterback since their Week 8 game over in London, though, and they will have their work cut out for them. Drew Brees is incredible at home, posting a 66 percent success rate, 9.5 yards per attempt and a 130 rating with a 21-2 TD-INT rate. Every single one of those metrics is the best in the NFL. Philadelphia will also face Ted Ginn Jr., who was worked into the lineup to close the year after missing most of the season. Ultimately, I envision this game as a back-and-forth affair that will hinge on whether or not Foles can post a clean game from a turnover perspective, because it is very likely Brees will be able to do so.
Pick: Pass
Clay: Nick Foles over (-130)/under (+110) 1.5 TD passes
Foles has thrown two or more passing touchdowns in three consecutive games, and in three consecutive playoff games, including last season's Super Bowl. Foles' recent streak has come against some good defenses (Houston, Washington and Chicago). Philadelphia has scored 72 percent of its offensive touchdowns via the air this season, which is eighth highest in the NFL. Opposing offenses throw a lot (67 percent is third highest) and score most of their touchdowns through the air (71 percent is seventh highest) against New Orleans. The Saints have allowed two or more passing touchdowns in nine of their 16 games this season. That includes three of their past four.
The pick: Foles over 1.5 TD passes (-130)
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