Johnson: The Eagles' resurgence with Nick Foles under center shouldn't come as a surprise. They showed us just a year ago they were a Super Bowl-caliber team, and their schedule down the stretch this season wasn't anything special (outside of a big road win over the Rams). The defense has given up only 4.8 yards per play in Foles' starts (for reference, the Bears and Ravens tied for best in the NFL in the regular season, allowing 4.8 YPP), and I think we can attribute some of that to Foles' ability to control and slow down the game from the quarterback position.
For me, the biggest edge in this game comes at the total of 41. My projection is 39.4, and at 42 it would be a full-sized play for me. Chicago's defense has been absolutely terrifying down the stretch, and quarterback Mitchell Trubisky hasn't exactly impressed since returning from his shoulder injury (he's led the offense to put up 19 points per game, with four touchdowns and three interceptions in four games). What is fantastic about the Bears' situation, though, is that they don't need him to do much more. Considering this is Trubisky's first playoff start and they field the best defense in the NFL, I don't envision head coach Matt Nagy game planning anything out of the ordinary.
With the matchup pointing toward the under and my raw number sitting 39.4 anyway, I think it's still a viable play for a smaller amount at 41. If it pops back up to 42, I'll be grabbing it.
Pick: Smaller bet at under 41, full bet at 42 or better
Sharp: The Bears are one of the few teams in the NFL with a defensive unit capable of winning games by itself, due to its strength in limiting points as well as its ability to put points on the scoreboard. During Foles' run in the 2017 playoffs, the Eagles faced just one pass defense that ranked in the top half of the league (the Vikings). Foles was able to defeat the No. 8 pass defense of the Rams in his first start this year, but going to Chicago and taking on this top defense will be a huge challenge.
There were big question marks about the Bears entering this game, considering they might be without their three starting receivers: Allen Robinson, Anthony Miller and Taylor Gabriel. All were injured or missed Week 17, but fortunately for Chicago, all three are back for this game. Even though the Eagles won three of their last four games, Philadelphia's pass defense still ranked fourth worst in the NFL over that span. The Bears, however, don't throw downfield nearly as often as many teams Philadelphia has faced, so they may not take advantage of the Eagles' weakness in the secondary.
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Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears(-6.5)
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