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Nasher likes Indy +1.5, and money line +110
First and foremost sorry about that lame Charlotte over selection the other night
Looking to make amends here.
Colts + 1.5 and money line +110 (5Dimes)
Houston is getting tons of love, many are not giving the Colts much of a chance.
I do.
Yes, the Texans led by defensive ends Clowney and Watt, are the third best run defense in the NFL.
Mack may have a difficult time running the ball, the prop bet on him is over/under 51.5 yards rushing.
The over/under on solo+assisted tackles for Clowney is 3.5 (that may be worth a play on the over.
But that's not the Colts game, the Colts are a passing team with Luck, and dinged up receivers T.Y. Hiton and Inman and unheralded tight end Eric Ebron.
Fact of the matter is Houston in 28th in the NFL in giving up passing yards.
They give up 260 on the average passing yards a game.
Can't disguise it, that's a crap load of passing yards.
I think Ebron the tight end is the 'x' factor for the Colts offense, if Houston rolls out that cover 2 defense, than look for Luck to exploit the middle with Ebron (and Hilton)
Ebron props are over/under 49.5 receiving yards (should go over, but I'm not laying ridiculous -145 juice) and over/under pass reception 4.5 (too close to call)
Over/under on total passing yards for luck is 305.5 (also too close to call there, Luck averaged 287 passing yards per game for the season)
All prop bets and lines and money lines posted are 5Dimes numbers.
While Houston's rush defense is border line elite, but most metrics Colts run defense is 8th best in the NFL, Houston gives up a stingy 83 yards on the average per game, Colts only give up 101.5 rushing yards per game.
Briefly Indy's pass defense is smack dab middle of the road, Houston's pass defense is not very good.
Houston of offense sports a talented 2nd year QB, while Watson doesn't throw for the yardage that Luck does, Watson does more with his feet, plus he's got an elite wide out to throw to in Hopkins, and a very dependable running back with Lamar Miller.
Lastly, on special teams, Colts punter Sanchez is one of the games better ones, has a big leg, third best net yards per punt, -and most importantly Indy lead the entire NFL in fewest return yards allowed. Sanchez is the superior punter, and Indy's punt coverage is superb.
Colts place kicker Adam Vinatieri is the greatest place kicker that ever laced them up, and I don't think you can debate that. He just completed his 23rd season, at age 46 is still making field goals of 50 yards plus, he is the Tom Brady of place kickers, he's not human I tell you. AV made 23 of 27 field goals this year, he has made more pressure clutch kicks than anybody I can recall, he has appeared in 30 post season games (that's two regular season's worth)
Riddle me this? Game on the line, season on the line, who do you want kicking that ball?
To sum it up, I respect Watson's skill set, but give me the experience in Andrew Luck.
Miller gives Houston the edge in running backs, Hilton is a quality receiver Hopkins is better, I give the edge to the Colts at tight end, and the Colts have a huge edge on special teams.
Here's a very interesting tid-bit on this afternoon's game, the refereeing crew led by Bill Vinovich, has thrown the least amount of penalty flags, (13 per game) and only called 27 offensive holding penalties all season, also by far the fewest of any crew. Which is a huge advantage for Andrew Luck because, even though the new and improved Colts offensive line played well this year, they were flagged for offensive holding 33 times (5th most) and as a team Colts were the third most penalized team in the league (9 per game)
Conversely, Vinovich's crew even though they let the teams play instead of calling border line holding, was very vigilant when it came to pre snap penalties, and Houston were penalized 36 times for false starts and encroachment.
Colts are 5-0-1 in their last six in Houston, 5-1 straight up, Indy beat Houston last month in Houston.
I think Luck beats the Houston defense in the middle of the field, not deep, but zone beater passes. Ebron may have a big game, and I like Reich the head coach, he has a million tricks in his bag of tricks.
Colts +1.5 2*
Colts +110 1*
(p.s. I like Dallas too, but small)
ikid2groove415 gave stevenash 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.
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Originally Posted by Hman
PHONY. Never does anything good for someone outside of football without a camera there. Also the equivalent of the MLB player who hits 40 home runs and 37 of them come when his team is ahead 9-0. Chris Paul is supposedly an all time great and never does a thing when it counts. Has he ever even won a playoff series? In the biggest spots Watt is either hurt or plays like a practice squad callup. Also on Colts ML bigly. Real good start.
