1. #36
    The Giant
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    Quote Originally Posted by ThaWoj View Post
    Saints would be less than -200 vs the Rams. I don't think 260 is good value. You're basically gambling the saints will play anyone else in the nfc championship game than the Rams but it simply won't happen. Saints will be -3 maybe -170 or so vs the Rams. I'd rather parlay the winnings from the eagles/Dallas/sea game SPREAD with the ml against the Rams and than the ml in the Superbowl.
    They will be huge favorites next round, right? Let's say -340. Could be even higher. -170 versus the Rams. I think it might be even higher, but we can go with that. And in the Super Bowl, they will be the favorites over everyone. For the sake of argument, let's just say -170 again.

    -340
    -170
    -170

    That comes out to +226.

    Therefore, +260 is value.

  2. #37
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Futures are something that a tout would try to push.

    Has to do w/ the route being vs chalk or vs longshots. If the bracket gets blown up + Saints play vs multiple longshots, then the +260 would look very good (in retrospect).

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  3. #38
    pavyracer
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    I'm tracking Colts to see what the line would be if they make it to Superbowl:

    Future to win SB +3000 (1/5/19 before kickoff)
    Colts vs Texans ML +110

    Colts vs Chiefs ML +180 (opening line)
    Last edited by pavyracer; 01-05-19 at 08:58 PM.
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  4. #39
    lakerboy
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    I will be on the Rams in the NFC championship game ml of they make it. That I know.

  5. #40
    The Giant
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    Quote Originally Posted by pavyracer View Post
    I'm tracking Colts to see what the line would be if they make it to Superbowl:

    Future to win SB +3000 (1/5/19 before kickoff)
    Colts vs Texans ML +110

    Colts vs Chiefs ML +180 (opening line)
    It'll be well higher than +3000.

  6. #41
    The Giant
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    Quote Originally Posted by lakerboy View Post
    I will be on the Rams in the NFC championship game ml of they make it. That I know.
    You'll change your mind countless times in the next two weeks.

    I know the way your brain operates.

  7. #42
    pavyracer
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Giant View Post
    It'll be well higher than +3000.
    Just wanted to see what the final number will be. I think if the Patriots win next week and the Saints run the board in the NFC it will be higher. But if the Patriots and Saints get upset and we end up with a Cowboys-Colts Suprebowl it could be less.
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  8. #43
    lakerboy
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Giant View Post
    You'll change your mind countless times in the next two weeks.

    I know the way your brain operates.
    No I won't. I go by what books do early. I know what's going on. The Rams were+110 to win the NFC midseason. Books aren't dumb. They got things sorted out and will get rolling again. The saints peaked weeks ago. It would not surprise me one bit if the saints lose the first game.

    All I keep hearing is that no one wants to play in the dome blah blah.

  9. #44
    keely85
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    My hockey bets looking 3/3 right now. I donít know why I bet on nhl lol

  10. #45
    lakerboy
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    Quote Originally Posted by keely85 View Post
    My hockey bets looking 3/3 right now. I donít know why I bet on nhl lol
    Post them next time please

  11. #46
    The Giant
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    Quote Originally Posted by lakerboy View Post
    No I won't. I go by what books do early. I know what's going on. The Rams were+110 to win the NFC midseason. Books aren't dumb. They got things sorted out and will get rolling again. The saints peaked weeks ago. It would not surprise me one bit if the saints lose the first game.

    All I keep hearing is that no one wants to play in the dome blah blah.
    Rams were +110 midseason because that's when THEY were peaking.

    I don't really think the Rams are that good. Too many superstars, doesn't feel like a team. I wouldn't be shocked if the Bears took them out next week. The Rams can't win a Super Bowl until they move into their new stadium in two years.

  12. #47
    lakerboy
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Giant View Post
    Rams were +110 midseason because that's when THEY were peaking.

    I don't really think the Rams are that good. Too many superstars, doesn't feel like a team. I wouldn't be shocked if the Bears took them out next week. The Rams can't win a Super Bowl until they move into their new stadium in two years.
    Like the eagles last year. Then they fell apart. Then they won.

  13. #48
    The Giant
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    Quote Originally Posted by lakerboy View Post
    Like the eagles last year. Then they fell apart. Then they won.
    This would look more like the Saints of this year.

  14. #49
    lakerboy
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Giant View Post
    This would look more like the Saints of this year.
    Saints are too obvious. Do as you wish.

  15. #50
    The Giant
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    Quote Originally Posted by lakerboy View Post
    Saints are too obvious. Do as you wish.
    Sometimes the obvious teams win.

    How do you think Jibby stays in business?

  16. #51
    lakerboy
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Giant View Post
    Sometimes the obvious teams win.

    How do you think Jibby stays in business?
    Hahaha.

  17. #52
    gauchojake
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    Saints will lose to Philly

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  18. #53
    lakerboy
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    Quote Originally Posted by gauchojake View Post
    Saints will lose to Philly
    How will that happen? Philly is losing tomorrow!

  19. #54
    The Giant
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    Quote Originally Posted by lakerboy View Post
    How will that happen? Philly is losing tomorrow!
    I know you're a Bears fan. You ever go to games?

    My girlfriend's father is a season ticket holder. She goes to like one game a year. She went to the Rams game. Said it was the loudest she's ever heard the place.

  20. #55
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Laker, remember G's thesis in this thread. He's comparing rollover bets vs Future bets. Not really about who is good.

    For that Rams +550 ticket to have any value...they would have to see the Saints get knocked out in Round 1? Is that happening? Sea/Dal going to win at New Orl?

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  21. #56
    gauchojake
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    Quote Originally Posted by lakerboy View Post
    How will that happen? Philly is losing tomorrow!
    sorry

    Philly winning tomorrow

    Rams will beat Philly after they mop up what's left of the Seahawks

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  22. #57
    lakerboy
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Giant View Post
    I know you're a Bears fan. You ever go to games?

    My girlfriend's father is a season ticket holder. She goes to like one game a year. She went to the Rams game. Said it was the loudest she's ever heard the place.
    I went to a bears game on Detroit 20 years ago

  23. #58
    lakerboy
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChuckyTheGoat View Post
    Laker, remember G's thesis in this thread. He's comparing rollover bets vs Future bets. Not really about who is good.

    For that Rams +550 ticket to have any value...they would have to see the Saints get knocked out in Round 1? Is that happening? Sea/Dal going to win at New Orl?
    Chuck this is the NFL. Anything can and will happen. You been around long time like me. The Rams will be +145 in New Orleans if they meet in the NFC championship game.

  24. #59
    lakerboy
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    Quote Originally Posted by gauchojake View Post
    sorry

    Philly winning tomorrow

    Rams will beat Philly after they mop up what's left of the Seahawks
    Jake have a Perrier brother.

  25. #60
    gauchojake
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    Quote Originally Posted by lakerboy View Post
    Jake have a Perrier brother.
    having a cold brew coffee made in the brewer that the Lakers sent me

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  26. #61
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Quote Originally Posted by lakerboy View Post
    Chuck this is the NFL. Anything can and will happen. You been around long time like me. The Rams will be +145 in New Orleans if they meet in the NFC championship game.
    You could be right. +145 may be about right.

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  27. #62
    lakerboy
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChuckyTheGoat View Post
    You could be right. +145 may be about right.
    I will be on the Rams

  28. #63
    gauchojake
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Giant View Post
    They will be huge favorites next round, right? Let's say -340. Could be even higher. -170 versus the Rams. I think it might be even higher, but we can go with that. And in the Super Bowl, they will be the favorites over everyone. For the sake of argument, let's just say -170 again.

    -340
    -170
    -170

    That comes out to +226.

    Therefore, +260 is value.
    -375

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  29. #64
    The Giant
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    Quote Originally Posted by gauchojake View Post
    -375
    I'm already winning, Jake.


  30. #65
    gauchojake
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Giant View Post
    I'm already winning, Jake.

    Me too!!

    We are winning

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  31. #66
    The Giant
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    Quote Originally Posted by gauchojake View Post
    Me too!!

    We are winning
    You got the Rams at a good number, right?

  32. #67
    teecee
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    So I took the Colts in the middle of November at +15000 to win Super Bowl. Telling me I could've just bet them every game in the playoffs and potentially earned more?

  33. #68
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    TC, I think so. Think about the Moneyline prices Colts have cashed at and the prices they'll HAVE TO CASH AT to make it thru the tournament.

    GL on your wager, tho!

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  34. #69
    rm18
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    Quote Originally Posted by teecee View Post
    So I took the Colts in the middle of November at +15000 to win Super Bowl. Telling me I could've just bet them every game in the playoffs and potentially earned more?
    If you bet them to make the playoffs preseason + the 4 playoff games you would of made more.

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