1. #1
    Hman
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    How to bet UFC 232: Jon Jones vs. Alexander Gustafsson

    How to bet UFC 232: Jon Jones vs. Alexander Gustafsson

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    It wouldn't be the return of Jon Jones without some controversy.


    Infamously having refused a short-notice opponent change prior to UFC 151, which resulted in the cancellation of that Las Vegas event in 2012, Jones has now led to a second event being pulled from Nevada. This time, however, a loophole-like solution allowed for the card to proceed in a new venue, a new state and, most importantly, under a new athletic commission.


    The sudden change of venue will dominate the headlines leading into the event, no doubt wreaking logistical chaos for the promotion, the fans and the fighters competing on the card. This is unfortunate for many reasons, among them being it means potentially overlooking the compelling rematch of Jones' only risky title defense, also considered one of the greatest title fights in the light heavyweight division's history. Alexander Gustafsson lost that unanimous decision to Jones at UFC 165 but won two rounds on two of the judges' scorecards, meaning he was one flipped round away from a massive upset.


    The rematch comes five years later, for a title vacated by double champ Daniel Cormier, who could end up rematching Saturday's winner. Setting all that drama and history aside, we're left asking, "Who will win?" The odds are live, and while early market support pushed Jones to be a heavy favorite, his line has begun to retreat during fight week.


    Let's examine the matchup and take a side.


    Jon Jones (-255) vs. Alexander Gustafsson (+230)

    On the tale of the tape, Jon Jones always has had the advantage. A young champion, he usually has faced older, shorter-range fighters who couldn't overcome his range and resiliency. But Gustafsson is the rangiest opponent Jones has faced and is not even a year older. Many believe that Jones' usual advantages being nullified in their first fight showed he is not the dominant force his win streak suggests; the advantages are still there, just too slight to hang your hat on.



    We're left examining the fighters' performance metrics. And here, Jones again looks like a perfect fighter on paper. In standup, Jones is accurate, busy and hard to hit. Round to round, he out-lands and frustrates opponents, while controlling the cage and staying out of danger. And on the ground, he has been dominant with ground-and-pound and fight-ending submissions. As an everywhere threat, Jones can only be defeated by someone who can press an aggressive pace for five rounds while being resilient enough to handle the damage Jones will inevitably inflict.


    Pick: The numbers show that Gustafsson takes too many hits from distance to be able to win more rounds than Jones, despite his durability. Both fighters are older, but Gustafsson's willingness to take damage means he is likely the less fresh light heavyweight at this stage in their careers. He also is unlikely to hold Jones on the ground and more likely to end up on his back for an extended period.


    This all suggests Jones winning on points, if he can't catch Gustafsson with something dangerous. Jones is a good play at -250, even up to -300. But also expect some big line swings as sharps might be split, making price hunting a time-sensitive game.



    Odds and ends

    Gustafsson's training partner, ESPN's No. 6-ranked light heavyweight Ilir Latifi, could fare better. As a -150 favorite over No. 8 Corey Anderson, Latifi has stylistic and performance-based advantages that could lead to a strong execution. Both men are seasoned wrestlers, but if Anderson can't get top control, he'll be putting his risky chin up against Latifi's powerful punches. Latifi has the skills to stuff the takedowns and the power to end a fight in which he can decide the position.


    In the women's title fight, it's intriguing to see Cristiane "Cyborg" Justino as only a -250 favorite. The UFC featherweight champion has been the biggest favorite for nearly every fight card on which she has competed and routinely has surpassed 10-1 odds. Bantamweight champ Amanda Nunes appears to be a live dog. However, we're not accounting for the change in weight class, which works against her. Should Cyborg's price skyrocket, consider a small flier on Nunes or just take the Over 2.5 rounds and expect Nunes to put up a better fight than Cyborg's prior opponents.

  2. #2
    mdunlap3
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    Jones/Cyborg parlay

  3. #3
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by mdunlap3 View Post
    Jones/Cyborg parlay
    I like it!

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