[Hman]

Best bets for NBA on Christmas Day

ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)


The NBA on Christmas Day is a tradition that dates back more than 70 years. In more recent times, it has become a showcase of some of the biggest names and best teams in the NBA on a day in which the league takes center stage without competition from any of the other major American sports.


This year's slate of five games stretches from coast to coast, from noon to late in the night, and with so many high-profile matchups, the opportunity to find value in each betting market is ripe. We've asked a few of our NBA experts -- Doug Kezirian, Jordan Schultz and Andre Snellings -- to give their best bets for the day.


Lines displayed are from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Monday afternoon. As always, shop around for the best price.

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Los Angeles Lakers at Golden State Warriors (-9)

8 p.m. ET (ABC, ESPN)
Total: 235
Snellings: On the season, the Lakers have an average scoring margin of plus-1.8 and the Warriors a margin of plus-5.0. Even with the Dubs at home, they shouldn't be giving nine points to a team like the Lakers. In fact, the Warriors have won only one game by that large of a scoring margin in their past seven efforts. While they always have blowout potential, LeBron James and the Lakers are likely to bring their A-game as well on the big stage, and thus keep the game competitive.


Pick: Lakers +9

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Milwaukee Bucks (-10) at New York Knicks

Noon ET (ESPN)
Total: 227
Snellings: The Christmas Day games are the closest thing we'll get to an actual representation of each team's full strength during the regular season, because every team is rested (there were no games on Christmas Eve) and every game gets the national spotlight. As such, these teams should perform to level. On the season, the Bucks lead the NBA with a plus-8.4 scoring margin per game, while the Knicks are among the basement teams at minus-7.3. Even with the Knicks getting a boost at home, the Bucks should be getting more than 10 points.


Pick: Bucks -10

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Philadelphia 76ers at Boston Celtics (-4)

5:30 p.m. ET (ABC)
Total: 223.5
Kezirian: Brad Stevens has tinkered with his rotations and now seems to have found the right combination. Since Gordon Hayward was relegated to a reserve role, Boston is 10-6 ATS. That includes four straight covers with Al Horfordstarting and healthy. Plus, Stevens has the best cover percentage in ESPN's database, which dates back to the 1990-91 season (minimum 175 games). I'll side with Boston, which clearly had an inspired effort on Sunday, following its players-only meeting.


Pick: Celtics -4

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Schultz: Joel Embiid has grown frustrated with the Celtics "kicking Philly's ass," and his Christmas wishes of a win over Boston will finally be fulfilled. The Celtics are struggling right now, with three straight losses to Detroit, Phoenix and Milwaukee before finally notching a win against Charlotte on Sunday. The reason for their struggles? Repeated defensive lapses, specifically in the half court.


This is a real problem against Embiid & Co., who gashed the Knicks and Raptors for 131 and 126 points, respectively, last week. As Embiid -- a legitimate MVP candidate -- and Ben Simmons continue to find their rhythm with Jimmy Butler, expect the Sixers to do more of the same. The most important mission for the 76ers will be forcing Celtics All-Star center Al Horford to guard the perimeter and plenty of pick-and-roll as he works through his minutes restriction.


Pick: 76ers +4

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Portland Trail Blazers at Utah Jazz (-6)

10:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Total: 214.5


Snellings: On the season, the Trail Blazers are 19-14 with an average scoring margin of plus-0.7, while the Jazz are 16-18 with a plus-1.0 average scoring margin. The Jazz have played better of late, including a 30-point blowout win over the Trail Blazers last week, but that game stands out as an outlier for both teams. Outside of that game, the Trail Blazers have won four straight, including a win over the Toronto Raptors and road victories over both the Clippers and Grizzlies. The Jazz shouldn't be giving this many points in this game.


Pick: Trail Blazers +6

[Hman]

No opinion on this material fellas, just posting this for others

[jjgold]

Golden St -9

[thomorino]

The Celtics have Horford back, totally different team with him, Horford does a great job on Simmons too, Boston should roll. Philly still has no bench

[jjgold]

Phila is overrated

Boston will blow them out

[MinnesotaFats]

Guy loves road teams on xmas?

IDK

Thinking of laying the wood each game untill one hits, doubling after a loss

[Venom72]

Bucks and celtics

[Deenoz]

thanks for the post Hman

[Fred The Hammer]

Heritage has a promotion tomorrow. Bet the sides on Milwaukee/Knicks up to $250 and you can get a refund at halftime if you want.

Seems kind of crazy? I think you have to throw it on the Knicks and see if somehow the Bucks sleepwalk and NY is up by 10-12 by halftime.

I'm throwing in $250 on New York +10

[t-wizzle]

I have doubts about whether the sixers can beat Boston.

[jjgold]

I love 4 games
More tomorrow

[Jayvegas420]

Knicks/Bucks under 227.5 (still looking into why this line went from 5 to 10)
Houston/OKC under 221.5 (5mike5 & BigDaddy are both on the over, so this is about as close to a as you'll find)
Sixers ML (+155) OVER Celtics (twizzle doesn't like it but, I still like his OVER 223 pick)
Lakers (+9.5) OVER GS (with the exception of Clev & Minn dubs haven't covered DD since October)
《Also baldy is on GS...'nuff said》

I will check back in at 6:43pm today & let you know what we will betting all our profits on in the late game!

Merry Christmas

[lakerboy]

Only play worth taking is OKC ml unless you think State wants to shit on James

[pilebuck13]

Only play worth taking is OKC ml unless you think State wants to shit on James

I hope they shit all over him and I can’t really root for my lakers I hate lebron so much he literally has ruined them for me and I have been laker fan my whole life

[DrunkHorseplayer]

I'm thinking about Portland and the points; don't see anything else.

[ThaTopMoron]

May seem like an odd bet to start the day but I seem to recall the first game is an early east start and teams come out sleep walking and shooting bricks, playing lazy offense... not ready to push the ball

bucks knicks first q or first half under if you do any quarter betting. teams could wake up in 2q so 1q bet may be safer than 1h under

[mhoefler]

Since 2005, the under has gone 35-20-1 on Christmas Day, covering by nearly seven points on average, according to our Bet Labs data.

The earlier the game is played, the better. The first three games of the day — starting between noon and 5:30 p.m. ET — have gone 26-9.

[GzaTheGenius]

6ers are 16-3 at home, 6-9 on the roaf

ibnb never bet the NBA but Celtics ML looks solid

[5teamparlay]

Bucks—

Knicks are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.

[5mike5]

Pass

[allcourt]

I would tend to agree with you, sir. Historically, I have had good luck betting NBA unders on MLK day.

[ThaTopMoron]

the bucks knicks first quarter under 55.5 was +110 on BM about 5 min before noon eastern

38 points scored with 1:35 left in 1st q

cashing in on spending my time watching garbage noon christmas games in years past

too easy

who else riding these unders till we get hurt today

[lakerboy]

I hope they shit all over him and I can’t really root for my lakers I hate lebron so much he literally has ruined them for me and I have been laker fan my whole life

Totally agree. Feel exactly the same way

[Demonata]

Rockets suck ass

[ThaTopMoron]

1Q under goes 5 for 5

too bad i am too dumb and over think things to much to keep riding it past the first 3 games

1q under 57.5 in celtics game 32-25 score. jj reduke hits all 3's but misses a free throw late in quarter... yup. gambling at it's finest

1st q rockets game only 44 pts scored in 1st q... easiest win. but first half hit 112...anyone who had under 112.5 sweating it out. if u had under 112... you got a bad line. final somehow landed at 222... leaving more people to end up pushing if you had a bad line.

- NEVER bet on OKC on the road vs a good team or a hot team. confirmed once again.

celtics full game only went over because irving didn't want to lose and jj reduke can easily hit first quarter 3's but can't make a shot to win a game.

christmas 2019. under city! can't wait

i have no opinion on portland utah 2h... the teams suck

[thomorino]

The Utah-Portland first quarter should have gone over, Utah was 080 from the 3 point line and 2-8 from the foul line, the number went under by 4.5 points, 1q betting is always high variance.

[ThaTopMoron]

The Utah-Portland first quarter should have gone over, Utah was 080 from the 3 point line and 2-8 from the foul line, the number went under by 4.5 points, 1q betting is always high variance.

not with the 2 earliest games... they almost always go under on XMAS. it's a special bet on a special day

46 pts knicks bucks line was 55.5 a whole 10 pts short of losing

rockets okc with all the scorers and 3 pt shooters... 44 points with a final second 3 from harden. 1q was 56.5 if i recall correctly. a whole 13 points short of losing.

only boston celtics game should of went over the number in the 1st q but of course... the players found dumb ways to mess up and miss enough free throws and chuck enough long range 3's or 2's and miss them instead of utilizing talent and driving to setup a mate for a nice shot

overall. christmas day first quarter under bets based on BM lines went 5 for 5... unless 57 was ever posted for okc game (i never saw it while watching it last 15 or so b4 it was taken off board) then you pushed.