[DJK]

I got a ML parlay that's going to pay $5,241.23 with the New Orleans as the last leg as 4 out of 5 already hit; Texans, Chicago, Minnesota, and Baltimore.

The wagered amount is $1,200, so the win amount is $4,041.23.

My luck of hedging has been very bad this year as I lost like 6 out of 7 hedges and gave away over $2,000 doing it.

Do I stick with New Orleans to beat Carolina and don't hedge at all or do I hedge to win some free $$$ and hope to possibly middle if Carolina loses but covers 6?

Thanks in advance for your input.

At the moment, I'm thinking to stick with my original bet and don't hedge at all.


https://imgur.com/a/apXYDE3

[DR225]

If you're resistant to hedging right down the middle, I would at least hedge for the parlay wager. $500 something on panthers ML will get you that $1,200 wagered, so you'd either win $3,500 or nothing. The panthers will want this game a lot more than the Saints and division games are always tough. Good luck.

[Chi_archie]

it it were me I'd hedge with a bet on Carolina and the points to win 1201 and give yourself a large middle to win both the parlay and the hedge

[DJK]

If you're resistant to hedging right down the middle, I would at least hedge for the parlay wager. $500 something on panthers ML will get you that $1,200 wagered, so you'd either win $3,500 or nothing. The panthers will want this game a lot more than the Saints and division games are always tough. Good luck.

First, thanks for your opinion. I didn't even think about taking Carolina on ML, but now I think about it, it's a very good idea.

I looked at what motivation each team has and I'm sure the Saints do NOT want to play in LA as they are still #1 seeded at the moment because they won head to head against the Rams and if they lose tomorrow and the Rams win out, then they have to travel to LA in the playoffs. I'm praying the Rams win tonight; otherwise the Saints do not have to win tomorrow night.

As to Carolina, making the playoffs is their motivation but do they even have a realistic chance to make it? Seattle has 5th seed locked up. Minnesota could win out since they have Chicago at home.

[JIBBBY]

Best way to hedge is to bet plus odds on both sides, Such as +ML bet to start the game then get up in that game and hedge out live the other way at + odds.. Can't lose money either way scenario.. Safe way to bet but you do lose out on potential larger profits..

Prop betting both ways at +odds such as in MMA and Boxing has been working for me for years now.. Prop bet to each fighters strengths as hedge bets when both props are at + odds..

Can hedge out of futures as well when that team game future bet comes due up.. Such as if you bet a future like the Rams to win the Superbowl at +800 at he beginning of the year and they make the super bowl, you then bet the other team and pull a good profit either way..

I wouldn't make a habit of it and I'd say pick your spots...

[DJK]

it it were me I'd hedge with a bet on Carolina and the points to win 1201 and give yourself a large middle to win both the parlay and the hedge

Thanks and that was what I was thinking if I was to hedge at all.

[DJK]

Hi JIBBY,

Thanks for your opinion. Are you betting on tomorrow night's game and if yes, who are you taking?

[Chi_archie]

maybe fiddle with the numbers to suit your needs. throw some ML on there, lock in a larger profit ect.

also might want to start a few open parlays with Carolina ML as first leg for low risk amount.

[Slipknot26]

Plenty ways of doing it , just how much do you want to guarantee
Carolina ML Hedge :
$1500 Carolina ML you clear $2000+ on either winning but again , solely up to what you want to guarantee
Play Carolina ML
Carolina Win
$1500 x$225 ml = $3375 - 1200 parlay loss (Total of +$2175 )
Saints Win
$4041 -$1500 ML play loss ( Total of +$2541)

2.) Buy Carolina to +7.5 have a huge middle opportunity to make even more
If you let it ride , best of luck , hope it hits .

[pavyracer]

I would hedge on Panthers +7. If Saints win by 6 or less you win both bets or push if win by 7.

This is Panthers Superbowl on prime time.

[mdunlap3]

Are you allowed correlated parlays?

[TommieGunshot]

The best way is to bet a four team parlay, then put only a portion of the winnings on the Saints money line, instead of all of it. You will never do worse (unless there is a significant line move); and you will end up with more money about half the time

[The Giant]

Hedging the Monday night game.

Why

play

it

at

all???


If you have live betting at your disposal, I would probably just sit around and wait and see if Carolina got an uncomfortable lead, and make my move then.

[JIBBBY]

Saints clean Carolina and cover.. Newton is a miss this year, Carolina is a bad team.. Saints on it this year and get the win.. I wouldn't and won't hedge it at all... Saints for me and maybe the OVER...

[DJK]

Saints clean Carolina and cover.. Newton is a miss this year, Carolina is a bad team.. Saints on it this year and get the win.. I wouldn't and won't hedge it at all... Saints for me and maybe the OVER...

Thanks. I highly doubt if Sugar House has live betting since I had to wait in line for like 20 minutes before I could place my bet, so I will have to use my BookMaker account if I was to hedge betting live odds.

But after hearing what you would take, I just may let it ride. Damn, $5,241.23 is a lot of money if the Saints lose. LOL

[DJK]

Thanks everyone for your input. I'm going to mull it over tonight and head over to Sugar House tomorrow evening and see how the line moves and decide. Basically, if the money-line on the Saints sky rockets, then I'm going to let it ride. If it gets really cheap, then I will consider hedging.

What ticks me off the most is that I won a teaser and I had both the Titans and the Colts in that teaser. I wish I had either one of them on this one instead as they both covered from the beginning to the end very easily, but that was a teaser and not a ML parlay and I wasn't about to take either one of them on a ML parlay.

[DJK]

Are you allowed correlated parlays?

I have no clue since Sugar House just started taking bets in Pennsylvania just this past Friday and I cannot look up what type of bets they allow or don't allow on the internet. I will have to drive over there to find out.

I was thinking of a two team teaser of Carolina and some other team from next Sunday to give myself a bigger cushion on Carolina, but if that teaser loses and the Saints lose, then I'm shit out of luck.

I know greed is going to get me in the end if I'm not careful.

[Pareto]

If you had left out the Saints in your parlay you would have won 2543 dollars. So now you are basically risking 3743 dollars to win 1497 dollars on the Saints.

Is this a bet you would make if it wasnt in your parlay? Because you should view this now as a 3743$ solo wager. If you wouldnt make this bet, then you should hedge, or as Thegiant mentioned earlier you should have anticipated this situation and not included the pick at all.

But you are lucky that you have gotten a good price on the Saints and can actually hedge without losing much equity.

[DJK]

2.) Buy Carolina to +7.5 have a huge middle opportunity to make even more
If you let it ride , best of luck , hope it hits .

I didn't think about buying points, but who knows where the line is moving to by tomorrow night before the kickoff. If it goes to Saints -7 or higher, then I don't even need to buy points.

What concerns me with Sugar House is that there was a long line to place my bet (had to wait at least 20 minutes or longer) when I went there yesterday and I'm wondering if I'm going to get screwed if I get there late since I have to go there after work and the line ends up being freaking too long and I can't even place my hedge bet.

What to do what to do...

[DJK]

If you had left out the Saints in your parlay you would have won 2543 dollars. So now you are basically risking 3743 dollars to win 1497 dollars on the Saints.

Is this a bet you would make if it wasnt in your parlay? Because you should view this now as a 3743$ solo wager. If you wouldnt make this bet, then you should hedge, or as Thegiant mentioned earlier you should have anticipated this situation and not included the pick at all.

But you are lucky that you have gotten a good price on the Saints and can actually hedge without losing much equity.

No, I would never wager $3,743 solo on the Saints ML.

When I make my ML parlays, I don't think about when the games are played as I just take whatever is best for the parlay when I'm done looking at all games for the weekend including Monday's game. When I looked at the MNF game, I was thinking to myself "put a fork in the Panthers as they are done". But, you just never know with the Panthers as they are much better at home with their 6-1 home record.

I have 24 hours to decide, so I will see what my head says after a good night's sleep.

[Brutus84]

What did head say

[DJK]

What did head say

My head said to take Carolina on the odd (+6-110 @ Sugar House) to win $2,500 so risking $2,750.

That would have created 4 possible outcomes.

1) New Orleans crushes Carolina, i.e. win by more than 6 points. Then, I win $1,291. This was the least likely scenario based on what I read up on the game as the spread never went up to 7 or more.
2) Carolina loses by exactly 6 points, which is not likely. Then, I win $4,000.
3) Carolina loses by 1 to 5 points, which was very possible. Then, I win $6,500.
4) Carolina wins SU. I just couldn't see this happening and it didn't. Then, I win $1,300.

So, I could have won anywhere from $1,291 to $6,500 and $1,291 was the minimum guaranteed win no matter what happened.

My mistake was asking my wife what she thought.

She was 100% insistent on taking the GUARANTEED MAXIMUM, which if I wagered $1,565 on Carolina's ML (+235), then I was guaranteed $2,477 win no matter what happened to the game. If the game ended in a tie, then I would have won slightly more (around $2,800) at a reduced ML parlay odd and push the Carolina bet.

I mulled it over for good 2 hours before I decided to listen to what she said; even though she has been dead wrong every time I asked her what she thought about my hedge situations as it happened good 9 or 10 times this season, where I lost all hedge bets except for one. I even lost this Carolina ML hedge bet too. She has absolutely no gamble in her and she is the biggest chicken shit as they come and yet I listened to her. So freaking stupid of me.

I watched maybe first 10 minutes of the game and fell asleep since I didn't give a damn what happened as I was getting free money no matter what. Then, I woke up in the middle of the night and stared at my iPhone's ESPN scores and sure enough the final score was 12-9. That was one outcome I didn't want to see, since then I know I would have given up a LOT of free money.

But then, had I hedged how I wanted to hedge originally, I would have gone nuts watching the game with all those critical turnovers.

Anyway, listening to my wife cost me $4,000 in free money.

Since I asked her, it's just as my fault as her telling me to take the guaranteed maximum winning. I've been reminding her that had she told me to take a chance, then I would have given her $2,500 instead of just $500 which is what I gave her on Tuesday to spend.

I also told her that I will NEVER EVER be asking her again about hedging.

[Biff41]

Put your four options on a grid with the last column being the expected profit or loss from each activity. Then multiply that number by the estimated probability of that event happening. That should indicate the most profitable option. The best option isnt necessarily the biggest payout but the probability highest when multiplied by the payout. They used to call it min max or zero sum back when i was in school.