It's officially bowl season. Chalk's college football Vegas experts "Stanford Steve" Coughlin, Chris Fallica andWill Harris offer picks on their favorite bowl games, while Phil Steele provides insights for each and every game. Collectively, they are here to provide analysis to navigate you through the next month of games, from the Celebration Bowl on Dec. 15 through New Year's Day.
This file will be continuously updated throughout bowl season with fresh information, providing you with a thorough one-stop destination for all of your bowl-game-betting advice.
Note: The College Football Playoff semifinals and national championship will be addressed in separate files. All game times listed are Eastern. Lines are from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, as of Wednesday, Dec. 12. Air Force Reserve Celebration Bowl
Total: 47.5 Saturday, 12 p.m. ET (ABC)
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta Steele: This is the fourth Celebration Bowl, which pits the champions of the MEAC and SWAC, and it will be played in Atlanta's Mercedes-Benz Stadium. North Carolina A&T beat Alcorn State here in 2015, 41-34, and last year the Aggies beat Grambling 21-14 -- delivering the MEAC both of their wins thus far in the series. Last year, A&T was undefeated at 12-0, and this year it beat East Carolina on the road, 28-23. The Aggies did lose to a pair of teams with losing records, but the losses came by a combined four points.
Alcorn State has the edge on offense, with quarterback Noah Johnsonrushing for 960 yards at 7.4 yards per carry. The Braves average 282 yards per game rushing and 6.1 yards per carry with an additional 193 yards per game through the air. North Carolina A&T is led by its defense, which has allowed just 158 yards per game over its past four games and leads the FCS in allowing only 73 yards per game rushing and 2.4 yards per carry. Aggies defensive end Darryl Johnson has 18.5 tackles for loss. Alcorn State also fields a good defense, allowing just 278 yards per game, including only 94 yards per game rushing, and the Braves have accounted for 50 sacks to A&T's 23.
My projection calls for North Carolina A&T to win 28-20, but with only a 378-348 yard edge. I will side with A&T for my pick in the Capital One Bowl Mania confidence contest, but Alcorn State is a formidable opponent.
Bowl Mania selection: North Carolina A&T Score: North Carolina A&T 27, Alcorn State 20 AutoNation Cure Bowl
Total: 59 Saturday, 1:30 p.m. ET (CBSSN)
Camping World Stadium, Orlando, Florida FPI line: Tulane -5.7 PickCenter consensus: 60 percent picking Tulane Coughlin: After finishing the season ranked 93rd in the country in scoring (25.7 points per game), Tulane head coach Willie Fritz decided to make a move and get rid of offensive coordinator Doug Ruse. The Ragin' Cajuns will have plenty of film on the Green Wave offense, but I like the notion of a new guy calling plays in this spot. Justin McMillan took over at quarterback midway through the season for Tulane and accounted for 10 TDs in the team's final five games.
This should be one of the more entertaining games of the bowl season, so I expect a good amount of points, but in the end I think the favorite wins and covers. Louisiana runs the ball well, as it averaged more than 220 yards per game on the ground, but I think Tulane can slow them down enough.
ATS pick: Tulane -3.5 Score: Tulane 34, Louisiana 24 Steele: Both teams are excited to be here and come in hoping to end their season above .500. Louisiana is 7-6 after winning the Sun Belt's West Division, while Tulane enters at 6-6. Tulane plays in the stronger American Conference, and thus took on the tougher schedule this season. Louisiana has the edge in the offensive backfield and on the offensive line, as it rushed for 5.7 yards per carry this year and allowed 21 sacks, while Tulane is at 4.7 yards per carry with 33 sacks allowed.
Tulane has the edge on all three layers of the defense, as it held opponents to 38 yards per game below their season averages this year. Louisiana allowed opponents to gain 41 yards per game above what they averaged over the course of the rest of the season. Tulane will have the edge on special teams and also has the matchup advantage, as it likes to run the ball and Louisiana is yielding 209 yards per game on the ground (and 5 yards per carry). I will go with the stronger team to win by a touchdown.
Total: 66.5 Saturday, 2 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Branch Field at Dreamstyle Stadium, Albuquerque, New Mexico FPI line: Utah State -8.2 PickCenter consensus:55 percent picking Utah State Steele: This bowl game features two top-notch quarterbacks and two explosive offenses. Mason Fine for North Texas has thrown for 3,734 yards with a 27-5 TD-INT ratio, while Jordan Love for Utah State has thrown for 3,208 yards with an equally impressive 28-5 ratio. Utah State has the edge at running back and on the offensive line, where it has paved the way for 5.6 yards per carry and allowed just nine sacks all year. North Texas has a slight edge on defense, as it has allowed only 3.3 yards per carry and registered 37 sacks this season; it is No. 18 in my pass efficiency defensive rankings.
The site favors Utah State, a team that's used to the altitude and plays here every other year, and the Aggies have also taken on the tougher schedule. Utah State will not have Matt Wells, as he has taken the head coaching job at Texas Tech, and while Seth Littrell was listed as a candidate at Kansas State, he told his team he was staying, so his players should be fired up. I side with the underdog here.
ATS pick: North Texas +9 Score: Utah State 38, North Texas 35
Total: 51.5 Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC)
Sam Boyd Stadium, Las Vegas FPI line: Fresno State -2.9 PickCenter consensus: 59 percent picking Fresno State Steele: Both teams have solid quarterbacks, with Arizona State's Manny Wilkins throwing for 2,896 with a 19-4 TD-INT ratio and Fresno State's Marcus McMaryion throwing for 3,453 yards and a 25-3 ratio. Arizona State will have a significant edge at running back with Eno Benjamin, who rushed for 1,524 yards (5.5), and its offensive line was one of 10 semi-finalists for the coveted Joe Moore Award. With receiver N'Keal Harry sitting this one out for the Sun Devils, the Bulldogs will have the edge at receiver with KeeSean Johnson (1,307, 14.1).
Arizona State has taken on the much tougher schedule, facing 10 Power 5 teams, while Fresno faced only two. While that makes Arizona State better than its numbers indicate on defense, I still give the edge to Fresno in the back seven on defense -- a unit led by linebacker Jeff Allison (121 tackles) and cornerback Tank Kelly, who is No. 2 in the country with 20 passes defended. Jeff Tedford will have the edge at coach as he is 6-3 in bowl games and 19-6-2 ATS with Fresno overall, while this is Herm Edwards' first bowl game. Fresno is 11-2 and Arizona State is just 7-5, but the Sun Devils' losses were all by seven points or less while facing a tougher schedule. Arizona State has a slight edge in talent and will be motivated by being the underdog.
ATS pick: Arizona State +4.5 Score: Arizona State 26, Fresno State 23 Raycom Media Camellia Bowl
Total: 47.5 Saturday, 5:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Cramton Bowl, Montgomery, Alabama FPI line: Georgia Southern -1.5 PickCenter consensus: 63 percent picking Eastern Michigan Fallica: There is no question that Eastern Michigan will show up for this game, in an effort to win its first bowl since 1987. The Eagles have been in every game this season and won five of their last six to become bowl-eligible. True, the EMU Eagles' last loss came against an option-based team (Army), but now Eastern Michigan has time to prepare for the Georgia Southern attack and the experience of facing such a unit this season. It has been a great turnaround this season for Georgia Southern as well, but I favor EMU, which came so close to getting a bowl win two years ago. Chris Creighton's team gets its bowl win this year.
ATS pick: Eastern Michigan +2.5 Score: Eastern Michigan 28, Georgia Southern 24 Steele: The battle of the Eagles is upon us. Georgia Southern is 9-3, but its losses are by a combined 74 points. Eastern Michigan is just 7-5, but its losses are by a combined 31 points, with three games decided by three points. Eastern Michigan took on the tougher schedule as well, facing seven bowl teams to Georgia Southern's five. Georgia Southern does have the edge at running back with Wesley Fields (959 yards, 4.4 YPC), as well as the better special teams unit. Eastern holds a slight edge at QB with Iowa transfer Tyler Wiegers, who was instrumental in its upset of Purdue, and naturally has a considerable edge at receiver with its opponent running the option.
I rate Eastern Michigan as superior on all three levels of defense, and Eagles head coach Chris Creighton has bowl experience. The site does favor Georgia Southern, which is 509 miles closer to home. The most significant edge in this bowl game, to me, is the fact that Eastern Michigan has already faced the option this year when it took on Army -- and it has extra time to prepare for Georgia Southern's option, which gains 66 yards per game less than what opponents usually allow.
Total: 49.5 Saturday, 9 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans FPI line: Appalachian State -5.4 PickCenter consensus: 65 percent picking Appalachian State Steele: Appalachian State is 11-1 and stands as the 2018 Sun Belt champion, while Middle Tennessee is 8-5 and the C-USA runner-up. Middle Tennessee is about a seven-hour drive away from New Orleans, which is about four hours closer than Appalachian State, so the Blue Raiders could have a slight crowd edge. The Blue Raiders play in the tougher conference, took on two more bowl teams and they faced three SEC teams along the way, so they clearly took on the tougher schedule. Appalachian State has the edge at running back and offensive line, as it averaged 5.7 yards per carry and allowed just 18 sacks. Middle Tennessee has the advantage at quarterback with underrated Brent Stockstill, who hit 71 percent of his passes with a 28-8 TD-INT ratio.
I give a slight edge on offense to the Blue Raiders. Appalachian State has my No. 25-rated pass defense and holds foes to 107 yards per game less than they average throughout the rest of the season, so it has the edge on defense, but the front sevens are even. Appalachian State also has the special teams edge. Mountaineers head coach Scott Satterfield has taken the Louisville job, so with this being Rick Stockstill's eighth bowl, the Blue Raiders will have a significant coaching edge. Add it all up and these teams are relatively close, so I like the touchdown underdog in a possible upset.
ATS pick: Middle Tennessee State +7 Score: Appalachian State 24, Middle Tennessee State 23 Fallica: Last year, teams playing in pre-New Year's Eve bowls while undergoing coaching changes went just 1-5. Appalachian State, the Sun Belt champs, fall into that category this year. The Mountaineers have ripped off five straight double-digit wins since their loss at Georgia Southern, but face a team playing its best football of the season. Middle Tennessee has won five of seven, with its only losses coming at Kentucky and in the C-USA championship game to UAB, by only two. Expect Brett Stockstill and the Blue Raiders to give the Mountaineers all they can handle inside the Superdome.
Total: 43 Tuesday, 7 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Howard Schnellenberger Field at FAU Stadium, Boca Raton, Florida FPI line: UAB -1.7 PickCenter consensus: 79 percent picking Northern Illinois Steele: Only three bowl games feature a battle of conference champions, and this one falls directly into that category as the MAC champion takes on the C-USA champion. UAB comes in far superior statistically, having outgained their opponents by 100 yards per game, while NIU was outgained by 23 yards per game. The Huskies faced the much tougher schedule, with games against Iowa, Utah, Florida State and BYU outside of conference play and 10 total games against bowl teams this season. Talent wise, I give a slight edge at quarterback to NIU with Marcus Childers having a 15-10 TD-INT ratio while UAB's quarterbacks have combined for a 14-15 ratio.
Northern Illinois also rates at an edge on defensive line, led by All-American Sutton Smith, who had 15 sacks. UAB does have the advantage at running back, receiver, offensive line, linebacker and defensive back, as well as special teams. UAB is also a lot closer to the venue and should have the crowd edge. The Blazers were just happy to get to a bowl last year, but this year their goal is to win one; on the opposite side, NIU head coach Rod Carey is 0-5 in bowl games, losing by 25 points per game. While the total is low, this game involves two top-40 defenses and two below average offenses, so the under could be worth a look as well.
Lean: UAB -2.5 Score: UAB 21, Northern Illinois 16 Coughlin: The thought here is pretty biased, but I am rooting for the Huskies in this game because I cannot stand that their head coach, Rod Carey, gets criticism for the bowl record he has, which is 0-5. A lot of factors go into bowl games, and therefore I don't think it's fair to pick apart things like that. This will not be a pretty game to watch, as UAB gives up 21 points a game on average and the Huskies from DeKalb allow 17 PPG -- so points will be at a premium.
I look at the teams NIU played and lost to, such as Florida State, Utah and Iowa. The feeling here is that the Huskies are more battle-tested and can pull this game out. UAB is probably the best story in the sport over the past two years, but I feel like the Huskies are due. I'll take to underdog to win on the field.
ATS pick: Northern Illinois +2.5 Score: Northern Illinois 17, UAB 16 Fallica: NIU had faced the better schedule, and after an embarrassingly bad performance in last year's bowl game, I would expect the upset winner of the MAC championship game to make a better showing this year. Both offenses are subpar, and each faces a solid defense, so this one should be tight throughout. I'll side with Marcus Childers to make one more play on offense and Sutton Smith, Josh Corcoran and the NIU defense to win a close game.
Total: 54 Wednesday, 8 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Toyota Stadium, Frisco, Texas FPI line: Ohio -5.2 PickCenter consensus:59 percent picking San Diego State Harris: It's the first meeting between these two schools, but there are similarities these programs share. The matchup pits two of the most consistent Group of 5 powers, led by two of the sport's three oldest coaches -- both of whom carry impressive defensive backgrounds and potential Hall of Fame credentials. Rocky Long has had eight winning seasons in eight years at San Diego State, while Frank Solich hasn't had a losing season at Ohio in more than a decade. Yet despite their success, both have struggled in bowls -- Long with a 4-8 record, and Solich clocking in at 5-9.
This year Solich has the advantage, mainly because his Bobcats are a more mature team with much better leadership and chemistry. San Diego State ended the season by losing four of its last five games straight up and six of its last seven games against the spread. The Aztecs lost their identity in the process, and reestablishing themselves as a tough, physical running team is priority one in bowl practices. San Diego State barely averaged four yards per carry this season, failed to produce a 1,000-yard rusher for the first time since 2009 and generally lacked firepower on an offense that ranks as Long's worst yet.
That's in contrast to the Ohio offense, which is an upperclassman-dominated unit that's the best one Solich has had in 14 years in Athens. This is a run-first attack, as usual, but quarterback Nathan Rourke's rushing production and the rare explosiveness Papi White brings at wideout help this group make big plays and finish drives. That's two things the SDSU offense has struggled with, and the respective national ranks of 13th and 11th in red zone touchdown percentage and third and 67th in rushes over 10 yards really highlight the difference in firepower between the Bobcats and Aztecs. The cold weather expected for this one also helps the favorite.
ATS pick: Ohio -3 Score: Ohio 28, San Diego State 17 Fallica: San Diego State has completely fallen flat over the last half of the year, dropping four of its final five games of the season with the only win via comeback at a bad New Mexico team. Injuries have derailed the Aztecs' offense and a normally reliable defense will face an experienced Ohio offense led by QB Nathan Rourke, two solid RB in A.J. Ouellette and Maleek Irons and a threat at WR in Papi White. Maybe the month off will do the Aztecs some good, but they have looked nothing like the team that ripped off consecutive wins against Arizona State, Eastern Michigan and Boise State. Outside of the Bobcats, the MAC was terrible in bowl games last year, and I expect this Ohio senior class to go out on a positive note.
ATS pick: Ohio -3 Score: Ohio 37, San Diego State 30 Coughlin: There's plenty of experience between these two head coaches, as SDSU's Rocky Long is 69 years old and Ohio's Frank Solich is 74. The Aztecs have both QB Christian Chapman and RB Juwan Washington back after missing significant time over the course of the season. It was a weird year for the Aztecs, as they come in losing four of their last five games, while the Bobcats come in winning four of their last five.
It just feels like no one is picking SDSU in this game because of how bad they have looked, but I like the idea of Coach Long getting some work done and slowing down this Ohio offense, which has had a good year. I just like to fade the public in bowl games, and I feel like the public will be on Ohio. I'll take the dog, and I think they can pull off the upset.
ATS pick: San Diego State +3 Score: San Diego State 21, Ohio 20 Steele: This game will be a battle of offense versus defense. Ohio has a dynamic quarterback in Nathan Rourke, who rushed for 816 yards and threw for 2,225 yards with a 24-7 TD-INT ratio. The Aztecs' offense features the tailback, and their quarterbacks combined to hit 54 percent of passes with a 14-6 ratio and 103 yards rushing this season. The Aztecs' streak of back-to-back 2,000-yard rushers ended this season, as they were led by Juwan Washington, who had 870 rush yards but missed four games with an injury.
The Bobcats have the clear edge on offense, as they averaged 71 yards per game more than what their opponents typically allow; the Aztecs offense was held to 64 yards per game less than their opponents typically allowed. The Aztecs have the edge at all three layers of defense and allow just 2.7 yards per carry, while holding foes to 74 yards per game below their season average.
The Aztecs' season ended badly, as they lost four of their past five games, while Ohio won five of its past six games. While my projection calls for Ohio to win by 10 points, San Diego State is a team that plays to the level of its opponent -- and the underdog is 11-1 ATS in its games this year. San Diego State did take on the tougher schedule, and it will be motivated as an underdog.
Lean: San Diego State +3 Score: Ohio 27, San Diego State 26 Bad Boy Mowers Gasparilla Bowl
Total: 55.5 Dec. 20, 8 p.m. ET (ESPN) Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida FPI line: USF -0.2 PickCenter consensus: 55 percent picking Marshall Steele: South Florida has the clear home-field edge, as this game takes place in its home stadium in Tampa Bay. The Bulls also have the advantage in the offensive backfield with Alabama transfer quarterback Blake Barnett (although he only has an 11-11 TD-INT ratio this season) and Florida transfer running back Jordan Cronkrite. While USF will have a small edge on offense, the Herd have a significant advantage on defense. Marshall allows just 104 yards per game rushing and 2.9 yards per carry, while USF checks in at 245 yards per game rushing and 5 yards per carry.
Marshall allows just 336 total yards per game while USF allows more than a hundred yards more, at 442 yards per game. Marshall is a legitimate 8-4 while USF, which enters this game at 7-5, could easily be 5-7 or 4-8. The Bulls trailed by two scores in the fourth quarter against both Illinois and Tulsa, had a 24-9 first-quarter deficit in a win over East Carolina and were outgained by 172 yards but still managed to beat Georgia Tech.
Doc Holliday is 5-0 straight up and against the spread in bowl games, covering by 10.4 points per game, and Marshall has the stronger team.
ATS pick: Marshall -2.5 Score: Marshall 27, South Florida 20
Total: 68.5 Dec. 21, 12:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium, Nassau, Bahamas FPI line: Toledo -2.8 PickCenter consensus: 68 percent picking FIU Steele: The weather figures to favor the team from Florida, as Toledo will leave chilly Ohio on Dec. 17 with four days to get acclimated to the heat. Toledo did face the tougher schedule, taking on seven bowl teams this season while FIU faced only three -- the fewest of all bowl teams. Toledo was just 2-5 ATS against bowl teams, while FIU was 3-0 ATS this year.
Toledo has a pair of All-MAC wide receivers, Diontae Johnson and Cody Thompson. They'll be up against an FIU pass defense that I have rated as No. 45 in the country, with 17 interceptions and just 16 touchdowns allowed. FIU quarterback James Morgan hit 65 percent of his passes this year, with a 26-7 TD-INT ratio, and faced Toledo in 2016 when he was the quarterback at Bowling Green; in that game, he threw for 335 yards with five touchdowns.
Toledo has slight edges at running back, wide receiver and offensive line. FIU has slight edges at quarterback, linebacker and defensive back. FIU head coach Butch Davis has seen his team overachieve in each of the past two years, and he is 5-3 in bowl games. The Panthers were a perfect 3-0 ATS as an underdog this year. Add it all up, and these teams are close in talent, so I will go with the underdog here.
Lean: FIU +6 Score: Toledo 38, FIU 37 Coughlin: I just don't understand this line. FIU has a nice short flight over to the Bahamas, which has to feel like a business trip.
Toledo is a team I feel has been a little overrated this year, because I think its defense is a bit limited.
The Rockets might have too much fun on the island before the game, so I'll take the underdog and the points.
ATS pick: FIU +6 Score: Florida International 34, Toledo 29 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Total: 49.5 Dec. 21, 4 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Lyle Smith Field at Albertsons Stadium, Boise, Idaho FPI line: BYU -7.3 PickCenter consensus: 60 percent picking BYU Steele: Both teams went to backup quarterbacks at the end of the season, but for different reasons and with different levels of success. BYU put backup quarterback Zach Wilson in as the starter for its last six games and went 3-3 (5-1 ATS) in that stretch -- with their losses coming by a combined 14 points. Western Michigan lost starting quarterback Jon Wassink to injury against Toledo and went 1-3 down the stretch, with their losses coming by a combined 73 points. True freshman Kaleb Eleby did hit 65 percent of his passes for the Broncos, and was my No. 55 rated quarterback out of high school and has a strong arm, so he should fare better with added bowl practices.
Western Michigan has a dynamic running back duo of LeVante Bellamy and Jamauri Bogan, who combined to rush for 1,871 yards and 21 rushing TDs. The Broncos also have the edge at wide receiver and on the offensive line. BYU has my No. 25-rated defense, allowing just 326 yards per game, while Western Michigan is at No. 101 in my rankings -- allowing foes 13 yards above their season averages. BYU also has the special teams edge and took on the tougher schedule, facing five Power 5 teams in the process.
BYU is used to the altitude, and the Cougars will have the crowd edge and figure to win the game. However, my system calls for BYU to have only a 48-yard edge, and that has me taking the double-digit underdog here.
Lean: Western Michigan +13 Score: BYU 28, Western Michigan 24 Jared Birmingham Bowl
Total: 73.5 Dec. 22, 12 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Legion Field, Birmingham, Alabama FPI line: Memphis -3.4 PickCenter consensus: 53 percent picking Wake Forest Editor's note: With the news of All-American Memphis running back Darrell Henderson leaving after his junior year for the NFL Draft, analysis for this game is being updated.
Total: 60.5 Dec. 22, 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, Texas FPI line: Houston -3.3 PickCenter consensus: 71 percent picking Army Coughlin: There's a trust factor here, alongside a bunch of unknown on one side. It doesn't get much better than taking Army -- it's pretty simple, because you know what you're getting. On the other side, Houston has their best player in recent history not playing (by the way, he's a defensive lineman), plus they lost their QB late in the season, who was at a conference-player-of-the-year level.
Houston allows just about 200 yards on the ground per game -- 197 yards, to be exact. That is just not a good stat when you get ready to line up and face the Black Knights, who average 296 yards per game on the ground. If the way Houston defended Navy is any kind of tell about how this game will go (the Midshipmen ran for 396 yards and scored 36 points), I'll take the Cadets and give the points.
ATS pick: Army -3 Score: Army 38, Houston 28 Steele: This game is in Houston's home state, but the majority of Army's players come from Texas, so I think the crowd will be at least split. I like Army in this game, but I do want to point out a stat that blew my mind. Army allows just 294 yards per game and Houston's defense allows 489 yards per game. Army faced only 615 offensive plays, so they allowed 5.72 yards per play. Houston's defense faced 1,025 plays -- and allowed 5.71 yards per play.
I still like the Black Knights here, as Houston is not only without their most electrifying playmakers, quarterback D'Eriq King (out with an injury) and defensive lineman Ed Oliver (sitting out to prep for the NFL draft), but the Cougars will also be without two other starters on the defensive line. Most teams have a little rust after sitting out weeks before their bowl game, but Army played just 14 days ago while Houston has been off for 28 days. A banged up and thin Houston defensive line will have a tough time getting Army's offense off the field. It may also be worth noting that Army head coach Jeff Monken is 2-0 in bowl games.
Lean: Army -3 Score: Army 30, Houston 23 Dollar General Bowl
Total: 51.5 Dec. 22, 7 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Ladd-Peebles Stadium, Mobile, Alabama FPI line: Buffalo -0.8 PickCenter consensus: 52 percent picking Buffalo Steele: While Buffalo will be excited about being in a bowl, it is traveling 1,152 miles while Troy is traveling just 167 miles -- essentially making this a Troy home game in Alabama. Buffalo has the big names in this game, with an NFL-caliber quarterback in Tyree Jackson and an NFL-caliber receiver in Anthony Johnson. The Bulls have the edge at running back and on the offensive line, which gives them the clear advantage on offense. But Troy is stronger on the defensive line, led by Trevon Sanders and linebacker Hunter Reese, who were both first-team All-Sun Belt.
Troy has a top-five special teams unit, while Buffalo comes in at No. 95 in my rankings. Troy head coach Neal Brown is 2-0 in bowl games. With the crowd edge accounted for, I have Troy as four points better despite them being the betting underdog in this one.
Total: 60 Dec. 22, 10:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Aloha Stadium, Honolulu, Hawaii FPI line: Louisiana Tech -0.7 PickCenter consensus: 51 percent picking Hawai'i Steele: While most bowl games have a split home crowd, Hawai'i has a full home-field edge here as it's playing in its home stadium; Ruston, Louisiana, is 4,030 miles away, the farthest any bowl team has to travel. I feel Hawai'i head coach Nick Rolovich deserves mention in the Mountain West coach of the year discussion, as he took a team that was very inexperienced, switched to the run-and-shoot offense and got his team to eight wins. There was not much expectation for quarterback Cole McDonald coming into the season, but he threw for 3,790 yards with a 35-8 TD-INT ratio and gets to throw to one of the nation's best receivers in John Ursua, who had 1,343 receiving yards and 16 touchdowns.
Louisiana Tech has slight edges at running back and on the offensive line, and a significant advantage on defense. The star of this game is defensive end Jaylon Furguson, who had 15 sacks and 8.5 more tackles for loss. Hawai'i lost their No. 1 tackler, Jahlani Tavai, for the season in November, while Louisiana Tech has significant edges on the defensive line, linebacker and in the secondary, with Hawai'i allowing 5.0 yards per rush; the Rainbow Warriors also rank No 119 in my pass defense rankings.
Rolovich is 1-0 in his lone bowl game, but Skip Holtz is a perfect 4-0 in bowl games at Louisiana Tech -- winning those four games by an average of 20.5 points. I will side with the much stronger defensive team in this game.
Lean: Louisiana Tech +1.5 Score: Louisiana Tech 31, Hawaii 28
Total: 56 Dec. 26, 1:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Cotton Bowl, Dallas FPI line: Boise State -1.9 PickCenter consensus: 51 percent picking Boston College Steele: These teams are both more than 1,500 miles away from home in this bowl game, so the crowd will likely be split. Boston College finished the season with a thud and, much like the FPI rankings that favor Boise, my ratings have Boise as the stronger team. Boise State outgained its opponents by 105 yards per game this season, while Boston College outgained their opponents by just 5 yards per game. When I broke down the individual units, Boise had the edge at quarterback, with Brett Rypien throwing for 3,705 yards and completing 67 percent of his passes with a 30-7 TD-INT ratio.
All the other advantages were in favor of Boston College, though. AJ Dillon is one of the nation's top running backs, and after 32 days off should finally be close to 100 percent. Boston College has one of the top offensive lines in the country and, on the defensive side, has the edge at linebacker. Led by cornerback Hamp Cheevers (an All-American), Boston College is my No. 12-rated pass defense, while Boise State checks in at No. 100.
While the Eagles numbers are not as strong, they faced a much tougher schedule that featured nine Power Five foes, versus just one for Boise State. When I line up the talent, I rate Boston College as the stronger team despite them being the underdog in this matchup.
ATS pick: Boston College +3 Score: Boston College 27, Boise State 23 Quick Lane Bowl
Total: 60 Dec. 26, 5:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Ford Field, Detroit FPI line: Georgia Tech -3.7 PickCenter consensus: 79 percent picking Georgia Tech Steele: Paul Johnson has opted to retire and this will be his final game, so it is his team's job to send him out a winner -- and I think they will. Minnesota does have a few edges on paper, at wide receiver with Tyler Johnson as well as on special team. The Golden Gophers should also have a slight home edge, with this bowl game in Big Ten country. Georgia Tech has much larger edges at quarterback, with both TaQuon Marshall and Tobias Oliver serving as capable signal-callers. The Yellow Jackets also have the edge at running back and offensive line
Those edges are reflected in the numbers; Minnesota allowed 278 yards per game rushing, including a mindboggling 7.8 yards per carry, on the road. Add in that the Golden Gophers have not faced an option team in a long time, and Georgia Tech appears to have what it takes to send Paul Johnson out a winner.
Total: 39.5 Dec. 26, 9 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Chase Field, Phoenix FPI line: TCU -1.2 PickCenter consensus: 62 percent picking Cal Steele: TCU came into the season ranked No. 16, but through 10 games they stood at 4-6 needing to win their final two games to get to 6-6 and make a bowl. California was hoping to get to a bowl game this year and did, going 7-5 to earn just their second bowl berth in eight years. TCU had an injury-plagued year and should be healthier for this game. Cal may be a little more excited to be here, and they have slight edges at linebacker and defensive back. How slight? I rank Cal's pass defense No. 3 and TCU at No. 9.
TCU does has the edge at running back, receiver and on both the offensive and defensive lines. TCU has taken on nine bowl teams while Cal has faced just five bowl teams. TCU rates as the stronger team, as the stats are relatively even despite TCU facing the tougher slate. Two other factors that go in the Frogs' favor: head coach Gary Patterson is 9-7 in bowl games, while this is the first bowl game for Golden Bears coach Justin Wilcox. A loss would deal the Frogs a losing season, which feels like it would derail some of the momentum built up over three double-digit win seasons the past four years.
Total: 55 Dec. 27, 1:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Independence Stadium, Shreveport, Louisiana FPI line: Duke -1.6 PickCenter consensus: 52 percent picking Temple Steele: Temple head coach Geoff Collins has taken the job at Georgia Tech, so for the second time in three years, Ed Foley will serve as the interim head coach for the Owls. In the Military Bowl in 2016, Collins coached Temple as a 12-point favorite but lost outright. Duke has the clear edge at head coach, with David Cutcliffe guiding them to four straight bowl covers. Duke had one of the top defenses in the ACC but got banged up midseason; the Blue Devils allowed 341 yards per game over the first seven games, but then allowed 529 yards per game over their last five.
With many of those injured players still out, Temple has the edge on defense. Duke has the edge at quarterback with Daniel Jones, as he and Quentin Harrishave combined for a 24-7 TD-INT ratio while Temple's top two quarterbacks have a 17-18 ratio. Temple has the stronger return game and kicker, giving them the overall edge on special teams. Temple is plus-14 yards per game on the year against bowl teams, and Duke is minus-86 yards per game, but Duke has faced the tougher schedule. I will call for Cutliffe to get his fifth straight bowl cover.
Lean: Duke +4 Score: Temple 24, Duke 23 New Era Pinstripe Bowl
Total: 48 Dec. 27, 5:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Yankee Stadium, New York FPI line: Miami -2.2 PickCenter consensus:77 percent picking Wisconsin Steele: Last year these two teams met in Miami, and this year the meeting will be in much colder conditions, which should favor Wisconsin. The Badgers have an offensive line that was a semifinalist for the coveted Joe Moore Award, along with Jonathan Taylor, arguably the top running back in college football -- giving them the edge in both of those spots. Badgers quarterback Alex Hornibrook had perhaps the best game of his career against Miami a season ago, hitting 23 of 34 passes with four touchdowns. That raised expectations for Hornibrook in 2018, but he has thrown for just 1,532 yards with 13 touchdowns and 11 interceptions.
In Wisconsin's five losses they were held to 187 yards per game rushing, and in their seven wins, they averaged 336 rushing yards. Miami has my No. 5-rated defense, which held foes to 130 yards per game less than they otherwise averaged over the course of the season. Defensive tackle Gerald Willis is a beast, the Hurricanes have my No. 11 rated pass defense and Miami has one of the most experienced linebacker units in the country. Wisconsin historically has had a top-10 defense most years, but their defense is just slightly above average this time around.
My system calls for Wisconsin to rush for only 175 yards, and that would signal a Miami win.
Total: 55 Dec. 27, 9 p.m. ET (ESPN)
NRG Stadium, Houston FPI line: Vanderbilt -2 PickCenter consensus: 50 percent picking each team Steele: When I talked to Baylor head coach Matt Rhule in the spring, his parting words were that he thought the Bears would get to a bowl. I doubted him, but I guess he was right. Baylor outgained their foes by 28 yards per game, while Vanderbilt was pipped by 22 yards per game. Vanderbilt faced the tougher schedule, which included both Notre Dame and Georgia. Vanderbilt has the edge on offense with quarterback Kyle Shurmur, running back Ke'Shawn Vaughn and receiver Kelija Lipscomb.
Baylor will be without top receiver Jalen Hurd and kicker Drew Galitz, who are both injured. Baylor has the edge on defense and this game is in Texas, so they figure to have the crowd edge. Both teams are 6-6 and will fight hard to avoid a losing season. With the game essentially looking like a toss-up, I will lean with the underdog.
SBR Top-Rated Sportsbooks
Ultimate bowl betting guide: Best bets, picks for every game
Reply With Quote
