1. 11-25-18 11:47 PM #1
    ddittie
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    10% Bankroll bet on Houston ML is +EV

    ML for Houston is currently -190
    ESPN stats say Houston wins 74.2% of the time.
    Meaning, if you bet $190 to win $100,
    74.2% of the time you will win $100, which is $74.20.
    25.8% of the time you will lose $190, which is -$49.02.

    So you're +$25 making this play. I recommend putting 10% of your roll on this! BOL
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  2. 11-26-18 02:45 PM #2
    danshan11
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    just a question but what the heck does ESPN stats know?
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  3. 11-26-18 03:02 PM #3
    Philmill
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    Houston Texas won 100% in favorite status last 5 games ....
    Houston Texas won last 7 games...
    Houston are a solid 71% chance to beat the Tennessee Titans

    *for what its worth....info I pay for...
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  4. 11-26-18 03:32 PM #4
    sheedy17
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    Your also talking ML bets and no spread correct?
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  5. 11-26-18 03:38 PM #5
    unusialsusp5
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    texans ML too high

    ML of -190 way too high. buy pts. to get it down to 3 or 2 1/2. tennessee not the patsy you think they are. got thumped by indy last week but throttled NE. beware.
    Last edited by unusialsusp5; 11-26-18 at 03:40 PM. Reason: just to add my .02 worth
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  6. 11-26-18 03:49 PM #6
    ddittie
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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan11 View Post
    just a question but what the heck does ESPN stats know?
    ESPN stats are the most accurate thing out there. It may be free info but its taking into every stat they have. Passing yards, rushing, pts scored, pts allowed, individual stats, weather, etc. It's more valuable than you realize, sir!
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  7. 11-26-18 03:50 PM #7
    ddittie
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    Quote Originally Posted by Philmill View Post
    Houston Texas won 100% in favorite status last 5 games ....
    Houston Texas won last 7 games...
    Houston are a solid 71% chance to beat the Tennessee Titans

    *for what its worth....info I pay for...
    -190 still has value at 71%! I appreciate your 2 cents sir!
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  8. 11-26-18 03:51 PM #8
    ddittie
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    Quote Originally Posted by unusialsusp5 View Post
    ML of -190 way too high. buy pts. to get it down to 3 or 2 1/2. tennessee not the patsy you think they are. got thumped by indy last week but throttled NE. beware.
    -190 is +EV, if you believe Houston wins here 70% or more.
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  9. 11-26-18 03:51 PM #9
    jjgold
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    every game a new game in nfl you nitwits
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  10. 11-26-18 03:51 PM #10
    ddittie
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    Quote Originally Posted by sheedy17 View Post
    Your also talking ML bets and no spread correct?
    Yessir, this is ML only.
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  11. 11-26-18 03:53 PM #11
    ddittie
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    Quote Originally Posted by unusialsusp5 View Post
    ML of -190 way too high. buy pts. to get it down to 3 or 2 1/2. tennessee not the patsy you think they are. got thumped by indy last week but throttled NE. beware.
    I put 1k pts on the ML, and 480 on spread with cash I'd recommend just putting 1-2 units.
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  12. 11-26-18 03:57 PM #12
    LT Profits
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    Titans +4 for me, Houston not as good as their record.
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  13. 11-26-18 03:58 PM #13
    jjgold
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    there is a reason NFL limits 50x than any other sports
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  14. 11-26-18 04:10 PM #14
    unusialsusp5
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    Quote Originally Posted by ddittie View Post
    -190 still has value at 71%! I appreciate your 2 cents sir!
    sorry, the -190 is way over priced for what is basically a pick-em. are you really that worried that houston might win by 1 or 2. buy points.
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  15. 11-26-18 04:25 PM #15
    Ballerholic
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    no way ESPN now more than the bookies!
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  16. 11-26-18 04:29 PM #16
    jjgold
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    line moving down

    basically dead even game
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  17. 11-26-18 04:31 PM #17
    shocka1212
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    Houston lost at home to the NY Giants.. if you're really content on taking them, why not just bet it live? you'll get a way better number if not + money on both sides.
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  18. 11-26-18 04:35 PM #18
    SharpAngles
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    ESPN Stats said so. What could possibly go wrong?
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  19. 11-26-18 04:39 PM #19
    sheedy17
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    Im leaning Titans + points. Titans are unpredictable, and so is Houston, could Titans D could hold the WR in check. Tough call im staying away or betting live
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  20. 11-26-18 05:27 PM #20
    Philmill
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post


    every game a new game in nfl you nitwits
    we know that McSlick….
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  21. 11-26-18 05:29 PM #21
    ehp6737
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    This thread is a bad attempt at humor, right?
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  22. 11-26-18 05:48 PM #22
    jjgold
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    NFL +EV now I heard it all

    Best of luck
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  23. 11-26-18 10:05 PM #23
    ddittie
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    Some of you are too old for that common core math program they're teaching now I thought.

    ML bet's are all about getting +EV long term. If you want to throw in the Houston -4, I recommended that play earlier in my NFL ATS thread. This is a 10% bankroll play, and I wasn't as confident in Houston -4 for 10% of the roll. Even if Houston lost here, it's a +EV play. I'm testing this theory in basketball, so go laugh at me there, gentlemen. For the ones who tailed on this play...
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  24. 11-26-18 10:13 PM #24
    2daBank
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    Quote Originally Posted by ddittie View Post
    Some of you are too old for that common core math program they're teaching now I thought.

    ML bet's are all about getting +EV long term. If you want to throw in the Houston -4, I recommended that play earlier in my NFL ATS thread. This is a 10% bankroll play, and I wasn't as confident in Houston -4 for 10% of the roll. Even if Houston lost here, it's a +EV play. I'm testing this theory in basketball, so go laugh at me there, gentlemen. For the ones who tailed on this play...
    Good call.. as much as I dislike juice I paid it here to,, sure felt like a gm houston wins at higher clip than price suggested while only covering half of them.

    Some the guys giving you crap line up to bet -200 mlb favs like it going out of style. That funny.
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  25. 11-26-18 10:15 PM #25
    sweethook
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    bingo -- very nice
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  26. 11-27-18 08:41 AM #26
    danshan11
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    couple questions
    what stat data do you have to support espn being even close to right on their % guess?
    Why in the world do you think Pinnacle is offering a "prime time" like Monday night football at a huge discount on the Home favorite? Maybe Pinnacle running a cyber Monday juice free and EV on home faves special, right?
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  27. 11-27-18 09:28 AM #27
    khaden
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    Nice thread I quietly follow and don’t chime in on people’s business and threads - it is all about cashing tickets sometimes!!!! And you are well done! Are you posting other sports?
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  28. 11-27-18 10:11 AM #28
    Mr KLC
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    “If you start to to take the cheese, drink the kool-aid, then you’re going to get humbled,” Texans O’Brien on the win streak, hype that may go with it.
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  29. 11-27-18 12:06 PM #29
    ddittie
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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan11 View Post
    couple questions
    what stat data do you have to support espn being even close to right on their % guess?
    Why in the world do you think Pinnacle is offering a "prime time" like Monday night football at a huge discount on the Home favorite? Maybe Pinnacle running a cyber Monday juice free and EV on home faves special, right?
    1. I use ESPN stats for my own algorithm. It's nowhere near perfect, but I do use it to help with my picks. I have also started to bet much more frequently and use it for all sports they track. I will share the results once there is a lot more data.

    2. No idea why Pinnacle has that offer. Perhaps they are testing promotions, my first thought is if they offer plays that are idiotic not to place, they can pull people in and get them to deposit, knowing most people will be triggered back into habits of losing and never cashing it out.
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  30. 11-27-18 12:07 PM #30
    ddittie
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    Quote Originally Posted by khaden View Post
    Nice thread I quietly follow and don’t chime in on people’s business and threads - it is all about cashing tickets sometimes!!!! And you are well done! Are you posting other sports?
    Ty sir.
    I've begun a basketball thread. If the basketball thread goes well I'll start posting mlb,nba,ncaam,ncaaf,nfl.
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  31. 11-27-18 12:08 PM #31
    ddittie
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr KLC View Post
    “If you start to to take the cheese, drink the kool-aid, then you’re going to get humbled,” Texans O’Brien on the win streak, hype that may go with it.
    Good quote but I don't see how this applies to this thread. The play was a 10% bankroll bet, and I would not recommend huge all-in plays anymore, as I've lost 4k in winnings this season alone attempting them on 'locks'.
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  32. 11-27-18 12:10 PM #32
    oilcountry99
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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan11 View Post
    just a question but what the heck does ESPN stats know?
    Exactly, why ESPN? Why not Sagarin, Dunkel, Dratings, danshan11, oilcountry99, bob the builder?
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  33. 11-27-18 12:13 PM #33
    ddittie
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    Quote Originally Posted by oilcountry99 View Post
    Exactly, why ESPN? Why not Sagarin, Dunkel, Dratings, danshan11, oilcountry99, bob the builder?
    ESPN is a billion dollar business. I just have confidence their analytics are much better than everybody else possibly could be. Just a hunch, I definitely could be wrong. It's also about saving myself time.
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  34. 11-27-18 12:14 PM #34
    ddittie
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    Quote Originally Posted by khaden View Post
    Nice thread I quietly follow and don’t chime in on people’s business and threads - it is all about cashing tickets sometimes!!!! And you are well done! Are you posting other sports?
    Here's what I have so far:
    GameDate Sport Description Risk/Win
    Ticket#:4005759
    Nov 27 07:00 PM    		 CBB STRAIGHT BET
    [514] NORTH CAROLINA-WILMINGTON -275    		 193.00 / 70.18
    Ticket#:4005760
    Nov 27 07:00 PM    		 CBB STRAIGHT BET
    [516] NOTRE DAME -310    		 180.00 / 58.06
    Ticket#:4005761
    Nov 27 07:30 PM    		 CBB STRAIGHT BET
    [520] LOUISVILLE +184    		 103.00 / 189.52
    Ticket#:4005762
    Nov 27 08:00 PM    		 NBA STRAIGHT BET
    [506] MEMPHIS +184    		 87.00 / 160.08
    Ticket#:4005763
    Nov 27 09:00 PM    		 NBA STRAIGHT BET
    [510] DENVER -175    		 308.00 / 176.00
    Ticket#:4005764
    Nov 27 08:00 PM    		 CBB STRAIGHT BET
    [522] DRAKE +155    		 118.00 / 182.90
    Ticket#:4005765
    Nov 27 08:00 PM    		 CBB STRAIGHT BET
    [524] LOYOLA (IL) +237    		 95.00 / 225.15
    Ticket#:4005766
    Nov 27 08:00 PM    		 CBB STRAIGHT BET
    [528] TULSA -500    		 1080.00 / 216.00
    Ticket#:4005767
    Nov 27 09:00 PM    		 CBB STRAIGHT BET
    [530] COLORADO STATE +105    		 118.00 / 123.90
    Ticket#:4005768
    Nov 27 09:00 PM    		 CBB STRAIGHT BET
    [535] NORTH CAROLINA STATE +249    		 68.00 / 169.32
    Ticket#:4005769
    Nov 27 07:00 PM    		 CBB STRAIGHT BET
    [544] OHIO -130    		 172.90 / 133.00
    Ticket#:4005770
    Nov 27 09:00 PM    		 CBB STRAIGHT BET
    [552] MONTANA STATE +105    		 132.00 / 138.60
    Ticket#:4005800
    Nov 27 07:30 PM    		 NBA STRAIGHT BET (FP)
    [504] MIAMI -360    		 0.00 / 54.44
    Ticket#:4005802
    Nov 27 09:00 PM    		 NBA STRAIGHT BET
    [507] INDIANA -145    		 156.00 / 107.59
    Ticket#:4005830
    Nov 29 08:20 PM    		 NFL STRAIGHT BET
    [302] DALLAS +296    		 100.00 / 296.00
    Ticket#:4005831
    Dec 02 01:00 PM    		 NFL STRAIGHT BET
    [352] JACKSONVILLE +184    		 100.00 / 184.00
    Ticket#:4005832
    Dec 02 08:20 PM    		 NFL STRAIGHT BET
    [353] L.A. CHARGERS +147    		 100.00 / 147.00
    Ticket#:4005833
    Dec 02 01:00 PM    		 NFL STRAIGHT BET
    [356] TAMPA BAY +155    		 100.00 / 155.00
    Ticket#:4005834
    Dec 02 01:00 PM    		 NFL STRAIGHT BET
    [358] ATLANTA -102    		 100.00 / 98.04
    Ticket#:4005835
    Dec 02 01:00 PM    		 NFL STRAIGHT BET
    [361] BUFFALO +176    		 100.00 / 176.00
    Ticket#:4005836
    Dec 02 01:00 PM    		 NFL STRAIGHT BET
    [366] CINCINNATI +173    		 100.00 / 173.00
    Ticket#:4005837
    Dec 02 01:00 PM    		 NFL STRAIGHT BET
    [368] DETROIT +367    		 100.00 / 367.00
    Ticket#:4005838
    Dec 02 01:00 PM    		 NFL STRAIGHT BET
    [370] GREEN BAY -1112    		 100.00 / 8.99
    Ticket#:4005839
    Dec 02 04:05 PM    		 NFL STRAIGHT BET
    [372] OAKLAND +876    		 100.00 / 876.00
    Ticket#:4005840
    Dec 02 04:25 PM    		 NFL STRAIGHT BET
    [375] MINNESOTA +211    		 100.00 / 211.00
    Ticket#:4005874
    Nov 30 07:00 PM    		 CFB STRAIGHT BET
    [303] NORTHERN ILLINOIS +144    		 100.00 / 144.00
    Ticket#:4005875
    Nov 30 08:00 PM    		 CFB STRAIGHT BET
    [305] UTAH +176    		 100.00 / 176.00
    Ticket#:4005880
    Dec 01 01:30 PM    		 CFB STRAIGHT BET
    [308] MIDDLE TENNESSEE -120    		 100.00 / 83.33
    Ticket#:4005881
    Dec 01 03:30 PM    		 CFB STRAIGHT BET
    [310] UCF -160    		 100.00 / 62.50
    Ticket#:4005882
    Dec 01 12:00 PM    		 CFB STRAIGHT BET
    [314] APPALACHIAN STATE -1050    		 100.00 / 9.52
    Ticket#:4005883
    Dec 01 04:00 PM    		 CFB STRAIGHT BET
    [315] GEORGIA +421    		 100.00 / 421.00
    Ticket#:4005884
    Dec 01 12:00 PM    		 CFB STRAIGHT BET
    [330] VIRGINIA TECH -200    		 100.00 / 50.00
    Ticket#:4005885
    Dec 01 03:00 PM    		 CFB STRAIGHT BET
    [333] STANFORD -140    		 100.00 / 71.43
    Ticket#:4005887
    Dec 01 12:00 PM    		 CFB STRAIGHT BET
    [328] NORTH CAROLINA STATE -2500    		 125.00 / 5.00

    These are betpoints, my real money bets are about 1/10th of these.
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  35. 11-27-18 12:19 PM #35
    jjgold
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    Tremendous work
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