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    Best College Football Bets For Week 10

    Best college football bets for Week 10

    Phil Steele, Chris Fallica and "Stanford Steve" Coughlin

    Season records

    Steele: 29-24-1 ATS (last week: 3-4)
    Coughlin: 32-11-1 ATS (last week: 3-1)
    Fallica: 31-23-1 ATS (last week: 5-1)

    As we enter a crucial stage in the college football season, each team reveals more about itself by the week, and each game offers a chance for the most observant bettors to take advantage of what they learn. Every Thursday, Phil Steele, Chris Fallica and "Stanford Steve" Coughlin pick their top plays across the college football landscape.

    Here are the best bets for Week 10 of the college football season:

    Lines from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, as of Wednesday night. As always, shop for the best price.

    No. 14 Penn State Nittany Lions at No. 5 Michigan Wolverines (-10.5; O/U 52.5)

    3:45 p.m. ET, Saturday (ESPN)
    Fallica: The Michigan revenge tour is out in full force, and after watching the Penn State defense and offensive line, I can't help but think the Wolverines are going to get their share of big plays and pressure on Trace McSorley, who accounted for 358 yards in a blowout 42-13 win last year in State College. By the sound of things, it appears Chase Winovich and the rest of Don Brown's defense remembers it well -- and that could mean trouble, as the Wolverines control their playoff fate.

    ATS pick: Michigan -10.5
    Score: Michigan 38, Penn State 17

    No. 24 Iowa State Cyclones (-14.5) at Kansas Jayhawks (O/U 47.5)

    12 p.m. ET, Saturday
    Coughlin: It's November, so its officially basketball season in Lawrence, Kansas. Perfect time for a visiting team to have a kickoff at 11 a.m. local time. Most important, that visiting team from Ames has Brock Purdy under center, because since head coach Matt Campbell made the decision to put the freshman in as the signal-caller, the Cyclones have averaged 39 points and over 460 yards of offense. They also have the Big 12's most reliable rusher in David Montgomery, who leads in the league and is 12th in the country at 108 rush yards per game. Even if the Iowa State offense struggles to throw the ball early, it should be able to move the ball on the ground. I'll ride the 'Clones and give the points until they don't cover.

    ATS pick: Iowa State -14.5
    Score: Iowa State 38, Kansas 17

    Missouri Tigers at No. 11 Florida Gators (-6; O/U 58)

    4 p.m. ET, Saturday (SEC Network)

    Steele: Florida is coming off a 19-point loss to Georgia, but it was more competitive than that score indicates. Despite being minus-three in turnovers against the Bulldogs, Florida was down by only six points after an early fourth quarter field goal. After their only other loss this year, the Gators rebounded to beat Colorado State 48-10. Missouri quarterback Drew Lock has a career TD-INT ratio of 24-29 against Power 5 teams that make it to a bowl game, but in all other games, his ratio is 61-8. This year Lock has a 1-5 ratio in SEC play and an 11-1 ratio against nonconference foes.

    Florida is not only a bowl team, but the Gators have my No. 26-rated pass defense and might have the fastest overall defense in the SEC. Missouri is getting outgained by 107 yards per game in SEC play and had zero first downs in the second half last week against Kentucky. Florida is glad to be back in the Swamp; in their previous home game, the Gators took down a powerful LSU team by eight points. The Gators get a more comfortable win in this game.

    ATS pick: Florida -6
    Score: Florida 34, Missouri 20

    Fallica: I'm sure most people want no part of Missouri this week after the way the Tigers lost last week, but I like them in this spot. I know Missouri put a number on the Gators last year, so revenge could be in play, but the Gators have a lot of roster turnover from a year ago. I don't dislike the matchups here at all from a Missouri standpoint. The Tigers have a good run defense and I don't think the Gators' passing attack is going to frighten many people this year.

    Florida will win because Dan Mullen does a great job finding just enough of an advantage, and that will be enough.

    ATS pick: Missouri
    Score: Florida 23, Missouri 20

    South Carolina Gamecocks (pick'em) at Ole Miss Rebels (O/U 68)

    12 p.m. ET, Saturday (SEC Network)
    Coughlin: This feels like one of these games where people will look at the line and remember that the Gamecocks weren't too impressive in their 3-point win last week vs. Tennessee, so they'll side with the home team. I remember Ole Miss in its last game, which was two weeks ago, looking as one dimensional as any team in the league on offense when it lost to Auburn 31-16 in Oxford on Oct. 20. By no means am I saying that South Carolina is a great team, but I do think it is better and more balanced than the Rebels. The Gamecocks also have the manpower in the back end of their defense to slow down the Ole Miss passing attack, which is led by QB Jordan Ta'amu, who comes in already throwing for over 2,600 yards and 16 TDs. I'll take the road team to win a close one.

    ATS pick: South Carolina (pick'em)
    Score: South Carolina 31, Ole Miss 28

    Michigan State Spartans (-2.5) at Maryland Terrapins (O/U 46.5)

    12 p.m. ET, Saturday (ESPN2)
    Steele: These teams have identical 5-3 records, but Michigan State has faced the much tougher schedule. Maryland wins games when it can run the football effectively. In the past four wins, the Terps have averaged an incredible 370 yards on the ground. But the Terps' three losses this season have all been against quality run defenses, and Maryland averaged just 116 yards on the ground in those losses. Michigan State has a defense that has limited foes to only 77 yards per game rushing and 2.7 yards per carry. Maryland is just 3-19 ATS off a straight up win dating to the 2014 season, and now it has to deal with the chaos of DJ Durkin's reinstatement and then firing as head coach.

    ATS pick: Michigan State -2.5
    Score: Michigan State 27, Maryland 17

    No. 16 Iowa Hawkeyes at Purdue Boilermakers (-3; O/U 51)

    3:30 p.m. ET, Saturday (ESPN2)
    Steele: Our Vegas power ratings had Iowa rated as the No. 12 team in the country heading into last week. If not for a late interception at the 2-yard line, Iowa could have upset powerful Penn State on the road; in that game, Iowa had a 23-16 edge in first downs. The Hawkeyes also look like the best team in the Big Ten West. Purdue is a solid team and upset Ohio State at home, but it was a two-touchdown underdog at night, and this game is in the afternoon.

    The visiting team has also covered eight in a row in this series. Purdue has a young defense that is allowing foes two yards per game above their season average, and Iowa's defense is holding opponents to 138 yards per game below their season average. Iowa is coming off a loss, the Hawkeyes are in a must-win situation, and they are getting three points. Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz is an outstanding 19-7-2 ATS on the road over the past seven years.

    ATS pick: Iowa +3
    Score: Iowa 27, Purdue 20

    Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at No. 18 Mississippi State Bulldogs (-23.5; O/U 48)

    8 p.m. ET, Saturday (ABC)
    Fallica: This is a total sandwich game for Mississippi State, as the Bulldogs are coming off a win over Texas A&M and have a trip to Alabama next week. In this exact spot last year (after a win over A&M and with Alabama on deck), the Bulldogs slopped past Massachusetts 34-23 as 34-point favorites. Louisiana Tech is 7-2 ATS in its past nine games as a road dog vs. Power 5 teams. That includes a pair of one-point losses, at South Carolina last year and at Arkansas in 2016, as nine- and 23-point underdogs.

    The Bulldogs' offense isn't exactly a juggernaut, having scored seven points or fewer in three of their previous four games before a 28-13 win over A&M, but they'll do enough.

    ATS pick: Louisiana Tech +23.5
    Score: Mississippi State 28, Louisiana Tech 14

    Navy Midshipmen at Cincinnati Bearcats(-13.5; O/U 50)

    3:30 p.m. ET, Saturday (ESPNU)
    Coughlin: The Middies have lost five straight games and need to win out for bowl eligibility. They have shown improvement on offense the past couple of weeks, scoring 58 points and rushing for 641 yards in their past two games combined. Cincinnati (7-1) has been a great story, led by their defense-minded head coach Luke Fickell. I just think Navy can keep the game close, seeing how the Bearcats don't have the strongest offense in the league. The Middies did produce a school record in rushing yards last year when they faced Cincy, so they have had success.

    I'll take the road team and the points.

    ATS pick: Navy +13.5
    Score: Navy 27 Cincinnati 26

    No. 20 Texas A&M Aggies at Auburn Tigers(-4.5; O/U 48.5)

    12 p.m. ET, Saturday (ESPN)
    Steele: The visitor is a perfect 6-0 straight up in six SEC meetings between these two teams, winning by 15.5 points per game with four outright upsets. This game starts at 11 a.m. CT, so the atmosphere will not be as intimidating as a nighttime crowd would be. Both teams enter 5-3, but Texas A&M has faced the tougher schedule, having already faced Clemson and Alabama.

    These teams have a pair of mutual opponents in Arkansas and Mississippi State. Texas A&M was plus-19 yards per game against those teams, and Auburn was minus-89.5 yards per game against those same foes. Auburn is struggling to run the ball this season but took on the weak defense of Ole Miss in its last game and looked good, running for 269 yards. It won't be that easy against a Texas A&M team that has given up only 87 yards per game rushing and 3.3 yards per carry.

    Despite facing the tougher schedule, the Aggies are plus-134 yards per game and Auburn is only plus-42 yards per game. My average game grades rate Texas A&M No. 10 in the country at 101.5 and Auburn comes in ranked No. 39 at 92.6. I feel Texas A&M is clearly the stronger team and it is getting over a field goal here.

    ATS pick: Texas A&M (+4.5)
    Score: Texas A&M 24, Auburn 20

    No. 23 Fresno State Bulldogs (-25.5) at UNLV Rebels (O/U 60)

    10:30 p.m. ET, Saturday
    Fallica: Of course, I want to back a team that has lost five straight and given up 50-plus points in three of its past four games. Even without QB Armani Rogers, the Rebels are still putting up points, and word is Rogers has returned to practice, although he might not be ready to return yet. The Bulldogs, who I think can make a very good case to claim the title of best team in the Group of 5, have been a cover machine this year. But Fresno State has a short week this week with the late start in Vegas followed by a Friday game in Boise -- a run that could set the table for a push toward a Mountain West Conference title.

    I expect Fresno to do just enough to get out of Vegas with a comfortable win.

    ATS pick: UNLV +25.5
    Score: Fresno State 41, UNLV 21

    No. 7 Oklahoma Sooners (-13.5) at Texas Tech Red Raiders (O/U 77.5)

    8 p.m. ET, Saturday (ABC)
    Fallica: While I have tons of respect for Kyler Murray and the Sooners' offense, I still want to see how the defense will respond against a good offense. OU has faced TCU and Kansas State since making the change at defensive coordinator. Our FPI has Oklahoma favored by 8 here, which offers some value on the home dog. My sense is that the Red Raiders will get at least one of the two Big 12 big boys at home in the next two weeks, especially after a poor outing in Ames last week. Since 2009, no team has lost more often as a 13-point favorite than OU (nine times, twice more than any other team in that position). Strange things can happen in West Texas at night. This one will be close.
    ATS pick: Texas Tech +13.5
    Score: Oklahoma 42, Texas Tech 35

    Nebraska Cornhuskers at No. 10 Ohio State Buckeyes (-17.5; O/U 72.5)

    12 p.m. ET, Saturday
    Coughlin: After seeing the initial playoff rankings this week, the path for the Buckeyes is there. It starts this weekend as Ohio State comes off a bye. I'll take my chances with QB Dwayne Haskins, who is completing over 70 percent of his passes and has already thrown for 30 TDs as he faces a very undermanned Nebraska secondary. It's also worth noting that the Buckeyes have outscored the 'Huskers 118-17 in their past two matchups.
    ATS pick: Ohio State -17.5
    Score: Ohio State 51, Nebraska 21

    No. 22 Boston College Eagles (-2) at Virginia Tech Hokies (O/U 57)

    3:45 p.m. ET, Saturday (ACC Network)
    Steele: Virginia Tech has had a fantastic home-field advantage for years, but the Hokies are 8-9 straight up at home in ACC play over the past five years. Boston College has covered the spread in its previous seven ACC road trips. The start time means the Hokies' "Enter Sandman" entrance might not be quite as intimidating in the daylight. AJ Dillon returned to the lineup for the Eagles last week and ran for 149 yards against a tough Miami defense that has held foes to 133 yards per game below their season average, and 3.1 yards per carry.
    Virginia Tech has one of the youngest defenses in the country, and it allows foes to gain 40 yards per game above their season average. In ACC play, the Hurricanes are giving up 5.8 yards per carry. Boston College's offense and defense both rate higher than Virginia Tech's offense and defense, and I like the Eagles to grab the road win as they lay less than a field goal.
    ATS pick: Boston College -2
    Score: Boston College 34, Virginia Tech 27

    Oklahoma State Cowboys (-7.5) at Baylor Bears (O/U 68)

    12 p.m. ET, Saturday
    Fallica: Another sandwich spot here, as the Cowboys pulled the home upset over Texas last week and have Bedlam next week. Oklahoma State got a little beat up in the win last week as well. Baylor couldn't have looked any worse last week, but this is still a team that was right there with Texas in Austin, competed and scored on Oklahoma and beat Kansas State. Oklahoma State is 1-7 ATS in its past eight games as a favorite in a Big 12 game. The Cowboys have also failed to cover the past three games (1-4 ATS in past five) they have played as a favorite after an upset win.
    ATS pick: Baylor +7.5
    Score: Oklahoma State 34, Baylor 31

    Memphis Tigers (-13) at East Carolina Pirates(O/U 64.5)

    12 p.m. ET, Saturday (ESPNU)
    Coughlin: I love Mike Norvell.
    I love Holton Ahlers.
    Smells like I should take the over.
    ATS pick: Over 64.5 points
    Score: Memphis 51, East Carolina 48

    Tulane Green Wave at South Florida Bulls(-7; O/U 59)

    3:30 p.m. ET, Saturday
    Fallica: USF doesn't like to defend the run at all. Tulane has one of the better running games around. That should help offset a poor pass defense that USF could exploit when it gets the ball. Tulane has already knocked off a good offensive team in Memphis, although that one was at home. I wouldn't be shocked if the Bulls get a little loose with the football and this one is in doubt in the fourth quarter.
    ATS pick: Tulane +7
    Score: South Florida 33, Tulane 28

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    2daBank's Avatar Become A Pro!
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    Stanford Steve a freaking beast! Seems like he has a really good record every year.

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    2daBank's Avatar Become A Pro!
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    I get taking gators vs mizzou as tigers never beat anyone w a pulse, but isnít the gator secondary all banged up? I was looking at the under but when I heard this it gave me pause,

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    tnvolfan10's Avatar Become A Pro!
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    Stan Steve having a banner year

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    jjgold's Avatar File Clerk
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    I would never take Michigan laying all those points penn st pretty good

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    Mr KLC
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    Nick Saban was just asked what he will choose during the coin toss at LSU -- kick or receive?

    Saban: "To be honest with you, I hope we elect to kick ass, is what I hope we do."

    donation 02/15/2021

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    Hman's Avatar Moderator
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr KLC View Post
    Nick Saban was just asked what he will choose during the coin toss at LSU -- kick or receive?

    Saban: "To be honest with you, I hope we elect to kick ass, is what I hope we do."

    LoL Seriously or just a joke?

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    jjgold's Avatar File Clerk
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    Colorado tonight should be on everyoneís card

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    Hman's Avatar Moderator
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    Colorado tonight should be on everyone’s card

    I see you played them.

    Will give it a look

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    kevinmartin0123's Avatar Become A Pro!
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    hell no after seeing Colorado last week and arizona last week hell no tht game is aids at all costs lmao

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    Can't spell Griebling w/o the Bling
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    LOL.....pass. CU sucks on the road and they're best player has a "?" next to his name on the injury report. Arizona is trending up with a friday night start. Wildcats....Bigly!

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    eastvan09's Avatar SBR PRO
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    I like the Memphis ECU over.
    175 pts

    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 10/21/2021

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    BigdaddyQH's Avatar SBR PRO
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    JJ, you are the kiss of death, and I have Colorado plus the points in a pool tonight. Not good.

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    KANSAS24's Avatar Become A Pro!
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