Warren Sharp & Preston Johnson ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
It's Week 8 of the NFL season, and handicappers Warren Sharp and Preston Johnson have you covered with comprehensive betting previews for all of Sunday's games (except the late game, which will be featured in a separate file).
Total: 49 PickCenter public consensus pick: 67 percent picked Pittsburgh Johnson: The Steelers had their bye week to prepare for the Browns in Week 8. Pittsburgh won in the final seconds the previous week in Cincinnati and now finds itself atop the AFC North. Ben Roethlisberger threw three interceptions when they opened the season in Cleveland in that strange 21-21 tie. Unlike that Week 1 game, Baker Mayfield is under center now for the Browns, but the Steelers are still the superior team by a pretty big margin.
I anticipated this line being double-digits, with my projection at Pittsburgh -10.1. I would need a bigger discrepancy before I bet the -8, but my recommendation would be to take the Steelers now if that was the direction you were leaning or to use them in a two-team, six-point teaser at -110 while you can still get it under the key number of -3. If you like the Browns, I'm fairly confident you can get better than +8 come Sunday.
Pick: Steelers -2.5 in a teaser with Panthers +8 (see below)
Sharp: The Steelers should theoretically be in a good spot, because while Ben Roethlisberger can be rattled and erratic in certain situations, Cleveland's run defense is not good (24th). The Steelers have played just one run defense that ranks higher than 24th all year (the No. 3 Ravens) and James Conner has looked tremendous. I expect nothing less against the Browns at home.
Cleveland's offense has serious flaws and seems to be operating at a subpar level for weeks on end. The Browns' success rate from passes remains unchanged, running between 37 percent and 39 percent for the past five weeks, which is well below average. Meanwhile, despite playing the higher-powered offenses of the Falcons and Bengals the two weeks prior to the bye, the Steelers defense has looked much better than it did to start the season.
Total: 43 PickCenter public consensus pick: 68 percent picked Philadelphia Johnson: We sensed the mess unraveling in Jacksonville last week before the Jaguars' 20-7 home loss to the Texans Sunday. Jacksonville is an absolute train wreck, so it is hard for me, ultimately, to disagree with the current market line of Eagles -3. My raw number makes the line Jaguars +1.1. This is pretty extreme, but remember -- Doug Marrone said every starting spot is open this week, so who even knows which players will be playing, and when, or for how long. And the Jaguars will be down several cornerbacks, including A.J. Bouye.
The Super Bowl champs, on the other hand, just lost after blowing a 17-0 fourth-quarter lead at home to the Panthers and are starting to flirt with "must-win" territory. They certainly will be with a loss to Jacksonville. That adds another layer to this game that I am interested to see play out. Statistically, the Jaguars have the better offense and the better defense (by far) this season, and this team is a three-point underdog! Philadelphia doesn't turn the ball over at the rate Jacksonville does, though.
I honestly can't wrap my head around what is going on here, and I don't think oddsmakers can either. There will be the camp proclaiming the number is ridiculous and we should expect max effort from every Jacksonville player this week. There will also be people saying the team is falling apart and they no longer have an identity -- and betting on such a team would be like lighting your money on fire. It's hard to disagree with either side of this. I'm fine sitting back and seeing what happens.
Pick: Pass
Sharp: The Eagles offense is coming on strong, at least for the first three quarters of the game. But when the fourth quarter rolls around, Philadelphia's offense hasn't been nearly as strong and its defense has struggled as well. The biggest question here is whether the Eagles offense, which has looked much better of late with Carson Wentz, plays well against Jacksonville's fifth-ranked D. Philadelphia has played the NFL's easiest schedule of defenses to date.
The Jaguars were passing often against bad run defenses and running against good run defenses. I'm not sure exactly what Nathaniel Hackett's early game plans have been the past three weeks, but they likely won't be able to run successfully against the Eagles and will need to resort to trusting Blake Bortles' arm. The way the Eagles have been defeated in three of their past four games has been by quarterbacks beating them over the top and exploiting the secondary. The Vikings did that to get their lead and the Panthers and Titans did it to come from behind. However, I have minimal confidence the Jaguars will be able to succeed in that same fashion.
Total: 53.5 PickCenter public consensus pick: 64 percent picked Kansas City Johnson: This is another rematch between two teams that already faced off once this season. The Chiefs went into Denver as favorites and rallied down 10 in the fourth quarter to win the game 27-23. We were fortunate enough to take the +5 and +4.5 earlier in the week, but this spread closed Denver +3.5 the day of the game. Kansas City actually covered the closing number -- and is now a perfect 7-0 ATS on the year.
So if Chiefs -3.5 was a fair line in Denver, and nothing has changed personnel wise since, what would be a fair line for this game in Kansas City?
In this instance I would have expected a spread here of Chiefs -8 at home. Now remember, I bet Denver +5 in Week 4 because I thought the line should have been closer to +2. In my opinion even the +3.5 closing line was slightly inflated. Similarly, even a -8 this week would be too high as my number comes in at Chiefs -7.2. I won't be running to step in front of this Kansas City train (and have stayed away since), but +10 is definitely an inflated number in the current market, and I couldn't disagree with anyone wanting to back the Broncos here.
Total: 45 PickCenter public consensus pick: 76 percent picked Chicago Johnson: I line this game Bears -6.5. I have been lower on the Jets in recent weeks than the market has been (we bet Minnesota -3/3.5 last week), so to see this at -8 for Chicago was shocking to me. After digging into Sam Darnold's numbers against competent defenses, the play on the Vikings was pretty much automatic when the number was too low anyway. Darnold completed 17 passes on 42 attempts and threw three picks against Minnesota this past Sunday in another subpar performance.
My numbers point to a play on the Jets at +8, but this Bears defense at home isn't going to be any easier for Darnold. In fact, the Bears opened -7, and sharp money has since pushed the line up to -8. I also see a little value on the under 45 with my projection coming in at 43.3, but how confident can I be that Darnold won't be scoring extra points for the Bears with multiple interceptions again? Bless your soul if you find it in you to back New York here. I can't do it.
Pick: Pass
Sharp: This game is tricky because of the Jets' unknown injury situation. They are without WR Quincy Enunwa and possibly No. 1 deep threat Robby Anderson (yet to practice as of Thursday night). Defensively they still look to be without DB Trumaine Johnson but there is a chance DBs Marcus Maye and Mo Claiborne could come back this week, and it looks likely that DB Buster Skrinewill return. There are question marks surrounding the Bears defense after it has allowed 31-plus points the past two weeks. This defense held its previous three opponents to no more than 17 points. The Jets passing offense now must face the No. 1 overall pass defense, and it is hard to envision much success without so many key weapons.
The Bears and Mitchell Trubisky have a middling pass offense, but now get to face a pass defense which was lit up for 31-plus points against worse passing offenses (No. 26 Jaguars, No. 21 Colts and No. 16 Vikings). The Bears rank No. 14, and that comes against the third-most difficult schedule of defenses. In a very windy stadium, the Jets defense held the Vikings to just a 34 percent success rate on passes last Sunday. With no wind and light rain expected, the Bears offense could get back on track this week.
Total: 42.5 PickCenter public consensus pick: 84 percent picked Washington Johnson: This number has been bouncing around pick 'em with either team a one-point favorite at some point during the week. I have the Giants -0.7, so there isn't anything worth betting when it comes to the side. I do like the over at 42, however, as my projection makes the total 45 points. I typically need three points of disagreement between my number and the market number to bet a total.
My best guess for the low total is a combination of two factors. The first is the Giants-Falcons game struggling to score points this past Monday night. Perception is that the Falcons offense is dynamite and its defense atrocious -- and yet there were only 43 points scored after a couple of garbage touchdowns late in the fourth quarter from New York. There also are some historical trends in this matchup that point to the game going under at a high rate the past couple of seasons when the Redskins and Giants meet.
I anticipate this number going up, so if you can get the over 42 it's worth a bet. There isn't much of a narrative to break down in this one, my numbers just point to this being an edge worth betting.
Pick: Over 42
Sharp: The Redskins have played the second-most difficult schedule of pass rushes so far this year. This week, however, the Redskins face the No. 32 pass rush of the Giants; it's been one of New York's biggest issues as a team. The Giants been unable to disrupt opposing passing attacks, and it's led to a ton of success -- the Falcons didn't punt the ball the final seven drives of the game last week.
For Washington, Alex Smith's passer rating when under pressure is 51, which ranks 33rd in the NFL. He has a mere 40 percent completion rate and averages only 4.4 yards per attempt. And he's been under pressure on 35 percent of his dropbacks, eighth most in the league. But when not under pressure, his passer rating improves to 110 and he is averaging a 74 percent completion rate and 8.2 yards per attempt.
The Giants say they are still playing to win, but it's hard not to notice the fire sale they've had with star players. In the locker room, you have to believe that Eli Manning is playing for another start and Odell Beckham Jr. will be furious it the Giants drop to 0-4 at home on the season. I expect a game effort out of the players that are still on the roster, but it is hard to ignore the big edge the Redskins have on the ground.
Total: 49 PickCenter public consensus pick: 59 percent picked Seattle Johnson: Both the spread and the total are spot on in this game. I do think, however, that the matchup favors the Lions pretty heavily. I actually plan to do a "buy/sell" and futures analysis on the Lions next week if they win this Week 8 game against Seattle. Matthew Stafford seems to finally have a run game, as Kerryon Johnson rushed for 158 yards against Miami, and the Lions as a team rushed for 248 yards total. Stafford has never really had a legitimate run game to work with, and the Seahawks rank 26th in the NFL in opponent yards per rush attempt. Seattle had an extra week to prepare with the bye week, but if the Lions are able to run the ball efficiently again, it will wind up being the difference.
Pick: Pass
Sharp: In a pivotal game of 3-3 teams that will have major playoff implications, the key matchup will be which defense stands the best chance at stopping the run, because both offenses are heavily run-oriented (Seahawks are the second-most run-heavy and the Lions are fourth). Seattle's rushing efficiency has been excellent over its past three games, while the Lions have allowed 55 percent of runs or more to grade as successful in three of their past four games. Detroit's run defense is even worse than the opponents that the Seahawks have recently played. Seattle should have solid success on the ground.
Detroit has played a very difficult schedule of run defenses this year but hasn't been nearly as consistent on the ground. Last week's huge rushing game against the Dolphins was either the start of newfound success or the product of a great situational game plan off the bye. Seattle does have the edge in that it is very good at stopping explosive passes for when the Lions try to set up deeper shots off play-action.
Total: 54.5 PickCenter public consensus pick: 61 percent picked Cincinnati Johnson: I don't understand the big move on the Buccaneers this week. This line was as high as Bengals -6, but as of Thursday it has been pushed all the way down to Cincinnati -3.5. My numbers agreed with the six-point spread, so at -3.5, I will be making a bet on the home favorite. The Bengals played a similarly awful pass defense in Atlanta a few weeks back and dropped 37 points. Cincinnati can score the football against anybody (34 against the Ravens earlier this year), but the opportunity against the league's second-worst defense in Tampa Bay is up for grabs.
On top of that, Tampa Bay's best defensive player (Kwon Alexander) was just placed on the IR. I'm not sure if this move has to do with the Bengals' performance in Kansas City on Sunday, but -3.5 is too low now and an edge worth betting. I will also be putting some money on the Cincinnati team total over when it opens. It will likely be around 28.5 based on the current line and total.
Pick: Bengals -3.5, team total over 28.5
Sharp: Cincinnati's game plan against the Chiefs was curious, to say the least. With matchup edges to Tyler Boyd, the Bengals focused all their first-half targets on A.J. Green with 10 targets and no more than one to any other receiver, as they sat in a 24-7 deficit. Without tight end depth after losing Tyler Eifert for the year, the scope of the passing offense is highly focused on Green and Boyd. The Buccaneers No. 32 defense should be a cure-all, but it is trending substantially better than it started the season. However, with the loss of MLB Kwon Alexander last week coupled with the abscence of DT Gerald McCoy and DE Vinny Curry, there should be ample opportunities for the Bengals ground attack.
Tampa Bay's offense is solid passing, but mediocre at best on the ground. When the Bengals defense is missing LB Vontaze Burfict from the middle, it historically has been poor against the run. However, the Buccaneers likely won't take advantage of his absence, as they are the seventh-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL. Still, Tampa Bay's offense is too good to keep down, and I expect them to make this a close game.
Total: 44 PickCenter public consensus pick: 55 percent picked Carolina Johnson: The Panthers were beneficiaries of a miracle come-from-behind victory in Philadelphia in Week 7. They found themselves scoreless and down 17-0 in the fourth quarter before rattling off 21 straight points and stealing a win. It is tough to gauge how a team responds after a game like that, but the early market seemed to believe that Carolina didn't deserve to be pick 'em at home to Baltimore. Cam Newton is technically questionable, but coach Ron Rivera said Thursday that there is no doubt Newton will play in Week 8. In that case, I make this game Carolina -0.7. I wouldn't be betting the Panthers side unless we saw +3s pop up, but it is a great option to use in a two-team, six-point teaser at -110.
Pick: +8 in a teaser with Steelers -2.5
Sharp: The Panthers have the 12th-ranked offense, but have played the sixth-easiest schedule of defenses. Carolina now must face the NFL's No. 2 overall defense, by far its toughest task of the year. Not only is Baltimore No. 2 overall, it is No. 3 versus the run. The Panthers run more often than any other team and aren't used to playing tough run defenses, facing the NFL's second-easiest schedule of run defenses in their last six games.
Carolina's defense is also not as strong as it might seem. The Panthers' lone games against offenses that ranked 17th or better saw them allow 31, 31 and 21 points to the Falcons, Giants and Bengals. The Ravens should fare well offensively unless Joe Flacco comes out and lays an egg, which isn't something he has done often this year. I expect Baltimore to emerge victorious in a game that is driven by its defensive prowess.
Total: 50.5 PickCenter public consensus pick: 74 percent picked Indianapolis Johnson: This is probably the ugliest buy-low spot on the card this week, but, if you have it in you to take a shot, my number disagrees pretty heavily on the move against the Raiders this week (even after the Amari Cooper trade). What was Cooper really providing for Oakland anyway? I think the Raiders should be a short favorite in this game, and the move from +1.5 to +3 puts into perspective just how bad the market -- at least for the time being -- perceives the situation in Oakland to be.
I imagine some of it has to do with the Colts' 37-5 smackdown over the Bills this past Sunday as well, but that final score couldn't be much further from the truth. I know I poked fun at the Bills starting Derek Anderson at quarterback (and I had money on Indianapolis), but I can also admit after the fact that the final score doesn't tell the whole story. From a yards-per-play perspective, Buffalo gained 5.51 YPP while the Colts gained 6.27. That type of discrepancy would typically yield roughly a five-point win for Indianapolis.
Turnovers and penalties are obviously part of the game, and Anderson compared to Andrew Luck is a stark constrast. But we should never expect a plus-five or minus-five turnover differential in a single game to be the norm. I haven't found it in me yet to put money down on Oakland at +3, but that is where the value currently lies. My best guess is that I wind up playing it for a smaller amount than my standard bet sizing would typically be (0.5x).
Pick: smaller sized bet on Raiders +3
Sharp: Jon Gruden did a nice job getting a first-round draft pick for Amari Cooper, but he hasn't been wise about the majority of his player acquisitions this past offseason, and that's one reason his team is in its current predicament. This passing offense is trending extremely poorly, ranking No. 25 the past three weeks, and the passing defense ranks No. 30 (including dead last in explosive passing). This game looks like it sets up as a Jared Cook game, as the Colts are allowing TEs to gain 8.4 yards per attempt and record a 58 percent success rate.
The Colts have played a brutal schedule of defenses of late, as four of their past five opponents rank 11th or better in total defensive efficiency. With Indianapolis being such a pass-first offense, strength of pass defense is a huge factor in the outcomes of its games. The Colts haven't faced a pass defense that ranks worse than 22nd this season, and against the No. 22 team (Texans) they put up 34 points. The Raiders rank No. 31 against the pass and are the NFL's worst defense against explosive passing. They also struggle to sack the opponent, which should keep Andrew Luck humming, especially with the return of T.Y. Hilton last week.
Total: 42.5 PickCenter public consensus pick: 62 percent picked San Francisco Johnson: This one is straightforward: My projection for the game is 49ers -2.1, and while there may be a slight edge to be had at pick 'em, it is -1 at most books and not worth using as a bet at that number. The 49ers have the better offense by a substantial margin, and defensively these teams are similar (Arizona has been 0.2 YPP play better but against a weaker schedule). Both the Cardinals and the 49ers are coming off of embarrassing blowout losses, so I can only imagine we will get max focus and effort from players and coaches preparing for this game.
My totals for 49ers games have been projecting higher than the market, and it took 12 minutes of scoreless football to end the game last week to lose an over 52; I have this one lined at 44.1. It opened 43.5 and has since dropped, so if under money keeps pushing it down my buy points would be at 41 or better. Otherwise for now, I don't have anything to bet on in this game.
Pick: Pass
Sharp: This game has far more intrigue than initially anticipated with the news that former Cardinals OC Mike McCoy was fired and Byron Leftwich hired in his place. Leftwich is an unknown commodity, but it is said he is far more like Bruce Arians than McCoy was, which means more targeting of David Johnsonin the passing game and possibly more downfield targeting. The key will be giving protection to Josh Rosen. The 49ers defense ranks below average in pass rush efficiency, so if the Cardinals can help keep Rosen clean, we'll get a chance to see what Leftwich has in store for this offense.
Meanwhile the 49ers are losers of five straight, but are likely still smarting over the loss to the Cardinals in Week 5. That was a game I was on the Cardinals +4, and they won outright. But Arizona was plus-five in turnover margin and scored on defense. It was a game the 49ers certainly didn't deserve to lose by 10 points. Ordinarily I would look to back the 49ers, but with so much upheaval to the offense of the Cardinals, they could rally here at home with extra time to prepare following the mini-bye domination from the Broncos.
Total: 56.5 PickCenter public consensus pick: 68 percent picked Green Bay Johnson: The Packers opened +10 in Los Angeles against the Rams this upcoming Sunday, but it only lasted for about four minutes. The line has since been pushed down to as low as +8.5 in some places -- which is on the right track -- but still too high compared to my projection of Packers +5.8. Green Bay had its bye week in Week 7 and that is certainly accounted for as well (worth a little over one point to the spread). There are a few +9.5s around still that would still warrant a bet, but I am in no rush to grab them for the time being. The prospects of a +10 reappearing later this week are intriguing, and the difference between a +9 or even a +8.5 if I wind up having to take Green Bay at a slightly lower number than +9.5 is an OK trade-off.
To explain in more detail, NFL games will land at nine points approximately 1.7 percent of the time (and a smaller percentage of that would be Green Bay winning by nine anyway). NFL games landing at 10, however, occurs almost six percent of the time -- and the majority of that would be expected to be the Rams by 10, since they are the considerable favorite. The potential value in waiting for a +10 to pop back up exceeds the advantage of taking +9 instead of +9.5 in this instance. Keep a close eye on it, as I will be doing the same.
Pick: Packers +9.5, waiting for potential +10
Sharp: There are so many intriguing matchups in this game that it is hard to determine which team has the clear edge. For the Rams, they get to face a Packers run defense that ranks No. 28 in the league despite going up against the sixth-easiest schedule. The Rams have played only one run defense worse than the Packers (Broncos) and in that game, Todd Gurley crushed to the tune of 208 yards at 7.4 yards per carry. And the Broncos rank just one spot worse than the Packers. Green Bay's defense has played nothing but bottom-10 pass offenses the past four weeks (Bills, 49ers, Redskins and Lions) and now must face the No. 2 Rams in what will be a huge shock to its system.
The matchup on the other side of the ball will be interesting. It seems hard to believe that the 9.5-point underdog Packers will be leading early in this game. As such, the rushing matchup for Green Bay will likely be less of interest, and instead I'll focus on the passing matchup. The Rams defense ranks No. 26 in sack rate, but generates a ton of pressure. Generating pressure is a key to winning games, but Aaron Rodgers averages a 130 passer rating when pressured, third best in the league. This Rams defense has been at its worst against the run, so the Packers would be wise to try to selectively run the ball even if down 10 points in the second quarter. But the Rams rank No. 26 in explosive pass rate allowed, and the Packers have only faced one other team worse (Vikings) and put up 29 in a game Rodgers was completely injured and virtually immobile in.
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