[Sam Odom]

AUB is -10

Thoughts ?

[dg2001]

I dont see much value here. I expect line to drop at least a point or 2. However Auburn has fared well vs LSU at home over the years.

[seaborneq]

Low scoring game. Expect a 20-17 type score

[jjgold]

LSU looks too easy

[ikid2groove415]

LSU won’t score 10 points

[t-wizzle]

Auburn covers.

[ikid2groove415]

Auburn defense will suffocate LSU Mickey Mouse offense - don’t put 2 much in LSU beating a weak Miami team

[Keepit100]

I think Auburn wins but I don't know if they cover but I also wouldn't be shocked if LSU wins. I'm not interested in betting this game because I see value in other games on Saturday and I try to isolate and bet just a couple of games. If I had to bet this game I would tease this game and take LSU with more points added but that is the only way I would feel comfortable betting this game. I prefer to bet SEC games against non SEC opponents like Ole Miss week 1 and Miss State week last week. SEC is by far the best conference.

[Louisvillekid1]

Auburn or nothing

[Easy-Rider 66]

Take the points

[Riders23]

If you are going to bet LSU (don't) bet now, if you are betting auburn wait till Saturday, wouldn't be surprised if this game closes Auburn -6.5. LSU super overrated atm, Auburn by 2 tds.

[jtoler]

its one of those games lsu covers rather easily or au blows them out

[Ralphie Halves]

LSU or nothing.

Stidham has not looked sharp. Bad news against LSU defense. You can't lay 10 there.

[seaborneq]

Auburn is beating opponents at home by over 24 points a game the past year, so it's a blowout one way or another

[Grits n' Gravy]

I think Auburn wins but I don't know if they cover but I also wouldn't be shocked if LSU wins. I'm not interested in betting this game because I see value in other games on Saturday and I try to isolate and bet just a couple of games. If I had to bet this game I would tease this game and take LSU with more points added but that is the only way I would feel comfortable betting this game. I prefer to bet SEC games against non SEC opponents like Ole Miss week 1 and Miss State week last week. SEC is by far the best conference.

This kid is a bookie’s wet dream.

[ikid2groove415]

Auburn when on can beat any team in the country / Bama:Georgia and even Ohio st- only problem? They can be inconsistent

[RangeFinder]

Punt

[jjgold]

Nobody knows anything it’s only one game into the season we have all experts here

[DISTROYA]

i will take the points. Line will drop IMO. Watched Auburn play Wash they looked sloppy and really shaky CB play. They are lucky they have a ferocious pass rush, or else that secondary could give up TD after TD and P.I calls.
I still cannot believe how UW lost that game. I think a ML play may even be worth it on the dog here, this line shouldnt be anywhere close to -10 IMHO.

[ikid2groove415]

i will take the points. Line will drop IMO. Watched Auburn play Wash they looked sloppy and really shaky CB play. They are lucky they have a ferocious pass rush, or else that secondary could give up TD after TD and P.I calls.
I still cannot believe how UW lost that game. I think a ML play may even be worth it on the dog here, this line shouldnt be anywhere close to -10 IMHO.

Auburn wins 27-9 Case closed

[ikid2groove415]

Only way LSU gets a touchdown - special teams or defense - that micky mouse offense ain’t putting a good drive together

[Eddy Munny]

So it sounds like everyone is split on the side but in agreement on the total if I'm not mistaken. Do we just put the mortgage on the Under then or is there more to it than that?

[ikid2groove415]

Take Auburn

[daneblazer]

Yoyoyoyoyoooooooooo yooooooo

yooooooooooo yoooooooooo

football

[Eddy Munny]

LSU or nothing.

Stidham has not looked sharp. Bad news against LSU defense. You can't lay 10 there.

When hasn't Stidham looked sharp? He was alright against Washington and barely played in the 2nd game due to it being a blowout.

[Ralphie Halves]

When hasn't Stidham looked sharp? He was alright against Washington and barely played in the 2nd game due to it being a blowout.

"Alright" in the UW game. 54% completion against one of the worst teams in FCS.

That isn't sharp, by any definition.

[Eddy Munny]

"Alright" in the UW game. 54% completion against one of the worst teams in FCS.

That isn't sharp, by any definition.

He was actually pretty good against Washington, who fields an elite defense. If his completion % for one half against an overmatched opponent in which Malzahn probably opted for a very vanilla offensive gameplan is all you have against the guy, then it's safe to say you're splitting hairs.

[sweethook]

will be better spots // gl

[jtoler]

...

[veriableodds]

not enough wiggle room in any direction or angle you look, i would agree with KEEPIT and look for other games that have alot more value.
GL

[ikid2groove415]

will be better spots // gl

Really? LSU is no where near auburn level - don’t be a sucka -

[survive]

Bad lines don’t travel. Auburn or nothing for me...

[KVB]

AUB is -10

Thoughts ?

Well, since you asked...

The KVB NCAAF Visiting Dog Fund seeks to use a stacking percentages forecast that is enhanced by both market analysis and situational factors that allow adjustments to the forecast. Some of those adjustments can be sizeable and a bet can be triggered as the adjusted prediction falls within the offered spread. Further, it’s not always about the visiting dog, it can be about failure on the home favorite’s part of the equation...

...The factors and thresholds being used in this fund, while they have been known to be volatile within a season (making it ideal for a Total Return Fund) move, have produced double digit ROI’s over thousands of plays. Some of these factors, over more than a dozen years, have been positive to the forecast enhancement every year...

...From a numbers perspective, next to Totals, the visiting dogs are where it’s at in college football...

The first plays in the Fund are…

153 LSU +9.5 (-105) over AUBURN

157 C MICH +14 (-105) over N ILLINOIS

185 TEXAS ST +10.5 (-105) OVER S ALABAMA

193 AKRON +21.5 (-110) over NORTHWESTERN

I have LSU +10 (-105) but didn’t post so I’m going with the current 9.5 and hope it doesn’t land on a 10 point game as that would create a record keeping headache...

The stacking percentages forecast has Auburn winning with 27 points to LSU's 21 points. The non-predictive public gauge has Auburn winning 21-13.

I can enhance this forecast, making it even more attractive for LSU. Essentially, with the book being forced hang a lower Total because the public betting, the money, the SEC conference game, etc., we get a situation that can adjust the line. The sharp forecast starts the situation by giving a probability of Total of 48. In a correlated parlay sense, the lower the Total the more likely the underdog will cover.

I'm already happy with 6 points above at 48, given a 10 point line, but the "efficient" market is giving me an even lower Total.

That's not all; by all accounts, this is going to be a heavily bet game. It has already, from my information and samples, received a high amount of volume relative to the rest of the market. At one point, when the market gets more volume, that relative volume will reach a threshold that I will also be able to factor into my forecast, thanks to the specific situations between these teams.

These adjustments to the line make LSU even more attractive and I am not surprised that the line has move to 9.5.

This is a grind and it's a sports bet so anything can happen, but I have LSU to cover this game and believe I am taking this position with a long term advantage.

Good Luck whatever you play.

[Sam Odom]

some good analysis within


thanks

[DISTROYA]

Stidham played very well against one of the best defenses in the league, with a new inexperienced O/L
One thing for sure, great game to watch IMO.