1. #1
    RangeFinder
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    Paging KVB (VT-Florida St.)

    Need to find a reason for the move in tonights game between VT and Florida St.

    I'm close to firing on +7 but would love to get +7.5 at -110. All my numbers say this is a 4 point game. I just feel like I'm missing why it moved other than liabilities on FS

    Thanks for the help

    P.s I just saw that the header says MSU-GEO. That was from a post last year. Somehow it copied it and I didn't realize it when I hit send.

  2. #2
    RangeFinder
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    Oh and why can't we edit headers?

  3. #3
    jjgold
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    Range you’re drunk?

  4. #4
    SEAHAWKHARRY
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    Florida state is getting both the money and the plays but this va tech tech is legit and will surprise many this year returning defense is on point and both teams can score ..I got +7.5 early in the week I believe this will be a close game as well

  5. #5
    daneblazer
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    Bet Georgia

  6. #6
    RangeFinder
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    Range you’re drunk?
    No. Honest mistake

    How come we can't edit the headers?

  7. #7
    SBR Genie
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    Quote Originally Posted by RangeFinder View Post
    No. Honest mistake

    How come we can't edit the headers?
    Only moderators/admin can edit the title, RF. Should be corrected now.

  8. #8
    RangeFinder
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    Quote Originally Posted by SBR Genie View Post
    Only moderators/admin can edit the title, RF. Should be corrected now.
    Thanks Genie! My baby my darling

  9. #9
    jjgold
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    Ranger your off lately

    Buried in horses

    Bases not bad

  10. #10
    RangeFinder
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    Ranger your off lately

    Buried in horses

    Bases not bad
    Did good at Del Mar 1st 2 days but yesterday was a little rough

    It's been an okay week but not great

  11. #11
    SBR Genie
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    Quote Originally Posted by RangeFinder View Post
    Thanks Genie! My baby my darling
    You're welcome, RF.

  12. #12
    irishstuey
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    Quote Originally Posted by SEAHAWKHARRY View Post
    Florida state is getting both the money and the plays but this va tech tech is legit and will surprise many this year returning defense is on point and both teams can score ..I got +7.5 early in the week I believe this will be a close game as well
    VT lost a lot on defense, including both Edmunds. FSU lost some production also. I would feel a lot better at 7.5 though.

  13. #13
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by RangeFinder View Post
    Need to find a reason for the move in tonights game between VT and Florida St.

    I'm close to firing on +7 but would love to get +7.5 at -110. All my numbers say this is a 4 point game. I just feel like I'm missing why it moved other than liabilities on FS...
    This is what I see.

    My stacking forecast, which can be weak early on has Florida State winning about 28-24.

    From my end it looks like the tickets and money are on Florida St. spread. The tickets are a little more even but the money is a little more lopsided from my examples.

    The ML shows even betting tickets but more money on Florida St as well.

    The line moved up on all the Florida State pressure.

    I have Florida State -7 because I think the weakness in the Forecast pairs with what I consider sharper groups taking V Tech.

    In fact, we are seeing this line pressure a little downward even though tickets are coming in on Florida St.

    It's basically a RLM but hasn't really shown yet as it's just small price movements at places like Pinny and Matchbook.

    This would be worry to me except that I anticipated this RLM, which hasn't quite become RLM yet, and think that money falls.

    My numbers, with the analysis added, qualified for a bet on -7, and still do, even with the line drop.

    Life isn't always contrarian, I was against the public with LSU last night, and now I'm with them on Florida St.

    If you want the dog, maybe a 5 Dimes option of 7.5 but it will get more expensive. I doubt you find +7.5 (-110) unless the books really reverse course. Which could happen.


  14. #14
    RangeFinder
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    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    This is what I see.

    My stacking forecast, which can be weak early on has Florida State winning about 28-24.

    From my end it looks like the tickets and money are on Florida St. spread. The tickets are a little more even but the money is a little more lopsided from my examples.

    The ML shows even betting tickets but more money on Florida St as well.

    The line moved up on all the Florida State pressure.

    I have Florida State -7 because I think the weakness in the Forecast pairs with what I consider sharper groups taking V Tech.

    In fact, we are seeing this line pressure a little downward even though tickets are coming in on Florida St.

    It's basically a RLM but hasn't really shown yet as it's just small price movements at places like Pinny and Matchbook.

    This would be worry to me except that I anticipated this RLM, which hasn't quite become RLM yet, and think that money falls.

    My numbers, with the analysis added, qualified for a bet on -7, and still do, even with the line drop.

    Life isn't always contrarian, I was against the public with LSU last night, and now I'm with them on Florida St.

    If you want the dog, maybe a 5 Dimes option of 7.5 but it will get more expensive. I doubt you find +7.5 (-110) unless the books really reverse course. Which could happen.

    Thanks K! I'll wait for my number at 7 1/2 at -110 and if not I'll stay off the game
    Seems like value players against groups here

  15. #15
    KVB
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    Yeah, in my opinion, based on how I see money flowing through the weekend, especially in NCAAF, I think money has been "steered" off of Florida St.

    I think last night was a much bigger game, especially volume wise, but we still have a couple of hours left.

  16. #16
    Grits n' Gravy
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    So op has it a 4 point game but won’t take 7?

    Only at sbr.

  17. #17
    KVB
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    Bookmaker, Will Hill, BetDSi all getting close, Range.

    They are dealing 7.5's.


  18. #18
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by RangeFinder View Post
    Thanks K! I'll wait for my number at 7 1/2 at -110 and if not I'll stay off the game
    Seems like value players against groups here
    Bookmaker dealing the 7.5 (-110) now.

    I still like FSU.


  19. #19
    RangeFinder
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    Took the 7.5 at -108 at 5Dimers

    Patience sometimes works

    Thanks for the help K

  20. #20
    2Shirts
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    There's no way VT stays within a TD. FSU by 10 plus easy.

  21. #21
    RangeFinder
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    Thanks for the info guys

    I owe you dinner K

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