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Who Wins The Belmont???
1. Justify (4-5)
Current Form: Don’t need me to tell you he’s perfect through five after winning the Derby and Preakness as an unraced 2-year-old. Rainproof as well.
Worth a wager? Sure, you want that $2 souvenir. Best 3-year-old in country may have taken a half-step back at Pimlico. Is the grind starting to take a toll? Will rail be problematic or a blessing in bid to become immortal No. 13? A thrilling second.
2. Free Drop Billy (30-1)
Current Form: Two-year-old sensation hasn’t progressed. Winless through four this year after failing to fire at a sloppy Churchill Downs.
Worth a wager? Free-falling Billy had one of the better trips running for the roses and wilted nonetheless. Sire Union Rags won this race. Working well for Dale Romans, who warned Baffert to be nice or he’ll take Justify out in first jump. Ninth.
3. Bravazo (8-1)
Current Form: Raced relatively well for sixth in the Derby. Then sat off the dueling Justify and Good Magic and closed to within a neck of the winner.
Worth a wager? D Wayne Lukas said best chance to upset Justify was in Baltimore, and his colt almost did. He’s running all three jewels, as well, and may finish leg-weary in fifth.
Modal TriggerBelmont Stakes contender Hofburg gallops Thursday.
4. Hofburg (9-2)
Current Form: Shuffled back early on in Kentucky. Willing, he managed to land seventh after having his momentum stopped at least twice.
Worth a wager? Absolutely. Biggest threat to thwart Justify’s day. Mott has been “very pleased” watching him work diligently at the Spa. Sitting on a big one after five weeks’ rest. Winner.
5. Restoring Hope (30-1)
Current Form: Picked up show prize in the Wood Memorial, then Baffert steered him to the Pat Day Mile where he walked home a distant 12th.
Worth a wager? No. Not sure why Baffert has him entered here and not on one of the undercard races this weekend. One positive: Florent Geroux will pilot. Last of 10.
6. Gronkowski (12-1)
Current Form: Drags a four-race winning streak over from Europe — all over synthetics at a mile. Had to skip the Derby when he went on IR.
Worth a wager? Gronk is back! And new handler Chad Brown is impressed. Wished he had him sooner but said, “[he] hasn’t taken a bad step since he arrived.” Big horse with big stride, but can he get the 12 furlongs? Will we see the real Gronk in the winner’s circle with Jose Ortiz? Probably not. Sixth.
7. Tenfold (12-1)
Current Form: Followed Bravazo’s stalking move in the Preakness and rallied to be a close third after Good Magic did all the heavy lifting.
Worth a wager? His Preakness shocked me. Didn’t see that one coming. He’s by distance sire Curlin and conditioned by Steve Asmussen, who won this race two years ago with Creator. A less-surprising third.
8. Vino Rosso (8-1)
Current Form: Repole’s Wood Memorial winner raced evenly, while wide in the Derby, checking in an invisible ninth.
Worth a wager? Pletcher’s best chance to win his fourth Belmont after Audible was sent home. Every reason to believe he improves five weeks after his compromised Derby. Up for fourth.
9. Noble Indy (30-1)
Current Form: Restarted engine after relinquishing the lead to win the Louisiana. Got mud kicked at him for the first time in Kentucky and didn’t appreciate it.
Worth a wager? Pletcher’s other Derby dud is going to need a fast track to redeem himself. If he gets one, Castellano may utilize his speed to set up stablemate Vino Rosso’s late charge. Seventh.
10. Blended Citizen (15-1)
Current Form: Only horse with a W over Belmont’s Big Sandy after winning the Peter Pan from off the pace.
Worth a wager? Horse for the course will have to be twice as good facing better and running longer. May lack pedigree. Nice job by Doug O’Neill sticking with jockey Kyle Frey. Eighth.
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Originally Posted by jjgold
