1. 05-10-18 08:18 PM #1
    The Giant
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    Warriors to sweep the Rockets (+800)..

    I believe there's some value here.

    It's close anyway.

    Most of these future bets you're better off betting individually, parlaying them to the finish. This one might be the exception.

    Game one: +105
    Game two: +125
    Game three: -300
    Game four: -330

    Obviously I'm guessing with these numbers, but those numbers compute to +701.

    I haven't bet it yet, but I'm strongly considering it. If the Warriors win the first two, it could be a wrap.

    Is there value here?

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  2. 05-10-18 08:19 PM #2
    Booya711
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    Ummmm...seaweed has warriors so absolutely not
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  3. 05-10-18 08:20 PM #3
    sourtwist
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    Shitt...if seaweed is on the warriors, the knicks could probably beat them
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  4. 05-10-18 08:22 PM #4
    gauchojake
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    Thanks seaweed
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  5. 05-10-18 08:22 PM #5
    2daBank
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    Agree if they win 1st 2 you can stick a fork in Houston. I think rockets prob get a split at home tho. Might be only game they win but do think they get 1.
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  6. 05-10-18 08:22 PM #6
    ans61201
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    I think warriors win it in 5. But if motivated a sweep very likely. If they fall asleep it'll be game 2
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  7. 05-10-18 08:22 PM #7
    The Giant
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    God, it's like everyone here shares a brain.
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  8. 05-10-18 08:24 PM #8
    2daBank
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Giant View Post
    God, it's like everyone here shares a brain.
    Uncanny sometimes! lol. Like virtually no way ans saw my post and we said basically same thing!!
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  9. 05-10-18 08:24 PM #9
    The Giant
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    Quote Originally Posted by 2daBank View Post
    Agree if they win 1st 2 you can stick a fork in Houston. I think rockets prob get a split at home tho. Might be only game they win but do think they get 1.
    Quote Originally Posted by ans61201 View Post
    I think warriors win it in 5. But if motivated a sweep very likely. If they fall asleep it'll be game 2
    Not referring to you guys, of course.

    I just get the feeling we might see Golden State make a statement here. When motivated, they are a juggernaut. I can see them destroying Houston.
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  10. 05-10-18 08:25 PM #10
    thechaoz
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    They'll get one.. Probably game 3 or 4
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  11. 05-10-18 08:25 PM #11
    Booya711
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Giant View Post
    God, it's like everyone here shares a brain.
    At least we don’t share one with seaweed
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  12. 05-10-18 08:26 PM #12
    Seaweed
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    Exactly!!!
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  13. 05-10-18 08:26 PM #13
    2daBank
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Giant View Post
    Not referring to you guys, of course.

    I just get the feeling we might see Golden State make a statement here. When motivated, they are a juggernaut. I can see them destroying Houston.
    I wouldn't be shocked in slightest. Houston full of and coached by big game chokers. If I'm gonna chase anyone this series it damn sure won't be the rockets!!
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  14. 05-10-18 08:48 PM #14
    ikid2groove415
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    Quote Originally Posted by 2daBank View Post
    I wouldn't be shocked in slightest. Houston full of and coached by big game chokers. If I'm gonna chase anyone this series it damn sure won't be the rockets!!
    Who let this retarded dumb fck out the dumbster man ? LOL
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  15. 05-10-18 08:59 PM #15
    shadymcgrady
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    Damnit, I was rly hoping to see a different class of '12 member creating this thread
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  16. 05-10-18 09:01 PM #16
    sourtwist
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    Lol
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  17. 05-10-18 09:07 PM #17
    lakerboy
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    Lol. They ain't sweeping until they play the cavs
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  18. 05-10-18 09:15 PM #18
    The Giant
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    Quote Originally Posted by lakerboy View Post
    Lol. They ain't sweeping until they play the cavs
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  19. 05-10-18 09:16 PM #19
    gauchojake
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    The mathematical odds of the parlay happening are +865 assuming those prices. So while the payout is better than the parlay odds, the bet is -EV. Now if you could get +900 then you got a +EV bet. I think. Math guys check in!
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  20. 05-10-18 09:20 PM #20
    El Nino
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    Quote Originally Posted by gauchojake View Post
    The mathematical odds of the parlay happening are +865 assuming those prices. So while the payout is better than the parlay odds, the bet is -EV. Now if you could get +900 then you got a +EV bet. I think. Math guys check in!
    At the gym with Deemer, will check in later.
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  21. 05-10-18 09:23 PM #21
    The Giant
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    Quote Originally Posted by gauchojake View Post
    The mathematical odds of the parlay happening are +865 assuming those prices. So while the payout is better than the parlay odds, the bet is -EV. Now if you could get +900 then you got a +EV bet. I think. Math guys check in!
    Tell me how you come up with +865.
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  22. 05-10-18 09:25 PM #22
    Harry N. Lloyd
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    What you're betting is basically a 4 team ML parlay.....so one doesn't simply add the ML odds to determine the value. It's more complicated than that.

    Example--what is the probability of flipping heads on a coin flip? It's 1 in 2. ML at a book would be +100 (before the vig).

    What are the odds of flipping 4 heads in a row? To answer, you don't just add +100 4 times. That would equal +400.

    The actual odds of hitting heads 4 times in a row is 1 in 16. If the book was only paying +400 for that they'd be getting rich (which they are!)
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  23. 05-10-18 09:28 PM #23
    El Nino
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Giant View Post
    Tell me how you come up with +865.
    It's +701. However, the Warriors take Game 1 and you're not getting them +125 for Game 2....therefore, you have more EV if you think the Warriors steal Game 1.
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  24. 05-10-18 09:29 PM #24
    ChiLLx
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    The Houston Superrockets are going to bury SBR
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  25. 05-10-18 09:29 PM #25
    The Giant
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    Quote Originally Posted by El Nino View Post
    It's +701. However, the Warriors take Game 1 and you're not getting them +125 for Game 2....therefore, you have more EV if you think the Warriors steal Game 1.
    I know, I wrote +701 in the OP.

    I disagree. If Golden State wins the first game, they will be a bigger dog in game #2. Houston's season would be on the line.
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  26. 05-10-18 09:31 PM #26
    The Giant
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    Quote Originally Posted by Harry N. Lloyd View Post
    What you're betting is basically a 4 team ML parlay.....so one doesn't simply add the ML odds to determine the value. It's more complicated than that.

    Example--what is the probability of flipping heads on a coin flip? It's 1 in 2. ML at a book would be +100 (before the vig).

    What are the odds of flipping 4 heads in a row? To answer, you don't just add +100 4 times. That would equal +400.

    The actual odds of hitting heads 4 times in a row is 1 in 16. If the book was only paying +400 for that they'd be getting rich (which they are!)
    Can you show me Phil Mickelson's shirt?
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  27. 05-10-18 09:35 PM #27
    Harry N. Lloyd
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    Giant, I can't. I'm in the bathroom jacking off to that picture of the girl with great .
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  28. 05-10-18 09:36 PM #28
    The Giant
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  29. 05-10-18 11:05 PM #29
    gauchojake
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Giant View Post
    Tell me how you come up with +865.
    I plugged it into the SBR parlay calculator. 701 is the true payout so 800 is obv better. 865 according to the calc is the true mathematical odds of the event occurring. What that means to me is that +800 is laying juice of 65 and +900 is an overlay of 35 making the 900 +EV.
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  30. 05-10-18 11:16 PM #30
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Giant, good luck. I can't disagree w/ the sentiment.

    I just wonder about any funny business:

    1) Doesn't TV want at least six games out of this series? Houston going down 0-2 would be death for TV.
    2) GoldenSt has a bad habit of not caring every 3rd game or so.
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  31. 05-11-18 12:27 AM #31
    krk1030
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChuckyTheGoat View Post
    Giant, good luck. I can't disagree w/ the sentiment.

    I just wonder about any funny business:

    1) Doesn't TV want at least six games out of this series? Houston going down 0-2 would be death for TV.
    2) GoldenSt has a bad habit of not caring every 3rd game or so.

    That's why I like that it starts in houston. The first 2 games will be when GSW is most motivated and locked in. Then the home crowd will prevent the letdown game, or the home court will be enough to win anyway.
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  32. 05-11-18 05:28 AM #32
    jjgold
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    Giant I like this bet

    Nothing to lose here young lad

    If Houston loses game 1 series over anyway
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  33. 05-11-18 05:32 AM #33
    Ebumdude
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    No offense Giant, but I hope you are completely wrong about this...speaking as a homer.
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  34. 05-11-18 06:12 AM #34
    MrSink
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    it is not possible
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  35. 05-11-18 09:42 PM #35
    Seto
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    Finally someone makes a smart bet on this site... It may not win but at least you're giving yourself a chance.
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