1. #36
    StackinGreen
    Can't stop Won't stop
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    11-7-9
    11-18-8
    7-12-18
    7-11-12
    7-5-11

    Anyone sprinkling 14? Don't know what to do with him, but likely leaving him out.

  2. #37
    Foxx
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    Kentucky Oaks (race 11 CD) coming up in an hour, I like the 14 keyed top and bottom with the 2 and the 10. So exacta 14-2, 14-10, 2-14, 10-14. Also #14 Win, Place, Show. It'll be the favorite so not a very sexy pick but whatever.

  3. #38
    ByeShea
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    Quote Originally Posted by SBR Tony View Post
    not taking anything away from him, but that first 1/4 helped.
    will they go a sub 22 in the derby ?
    I would chuck that time, that was silly speed. Count on a few dopey entries (sure looks this way) to do the same in the derby, could well set up nicely for top closers to duke it out pound for pound ... And with what Audible did with the hand he was dealt in the FL Derby (4 wide backstretch, never got close to the inside - so he won handily while covering multiple more lengths than his comp) I love his chances, especially if he goes off anywhere near 8-1, but I expect they come in.

    I might just lay a neat $50 on Audible to win and leave it at that. I wont see race live and am going to be at Black Susan / Preakness for a two-day blowout, (box seats, some corporate parties, the whole 9 yards)... Too geared up about that trip to get very wrapped up in the derby. Went to one Preakness years ago, it was basically debauch in the infield - this one will be much cooler - or at least age appropriate.

  4. #39
    mikemca
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    12-Enticed 30-1
    19-Noble Indy 30-1
    4-Flameaway 30-1

    Get some bang for your buck

  5. #40
    cincinnatikid513
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    somebody must dropped huge bet on 10 horse my boy jack he was 30-1 ml now 5-1 i remember last year horse patch was bet heavy early

  6. #41
    tony_come
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    Anybody have mint for today?

  7. #42
    reigle9
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    Any mudders in the field?

  8. #43
    SBR Tony
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    Quote Originally Posted by StackinGreen View Post
    11-7-9
    11-18-8
    7-12-18
    7-11-12
    7-5-11

    Anyone sprinkling 14? Don't know what to do with him, but likely leaving him out.
    Why leave the 14 out ? did you watch the video I posted a couple back?

    I know he's a EU horse, but he's Monster

  9. #44
    ByeShea
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    Quote Originally Posted by reigle9 View Post
    Any mudders in the field?
    Hate mud. 20 horses, lots get kicked up, gets in your horses nose or mouth - no bueno.

  10. #45
    no1here
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    7-14-16 really mortal, using the 3 also

  11. #46
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by cincinnatikid513 View Post
    somebody must dropped huge bet on 10 horse my boy jack he was 30-1 ml now 5-1 i remember last year horse patch was bet heavy early
    I'd go nowhere near My Boy Jack at this price. Meanwhile Audible is 6-1 so my +650 future does not look bad. Surprising that Justify is 7-2. He is only lukewarm fave.

  12. #47
    cincinnatikid513
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    I'd go nowhere near My Boy Jack at this price. Meanwhile Audible is 6-1 so my +650 future does not look bad. Surprising that Justify is 7-2. He is only lukewarm fave.
    i'm not don't like the 10 just strange same thing happened last year odds on patch went from double digits to like 5-1 early but then they creeped back up later in the day favorites have won the last 5 derbys so we'll see if that trend continues with justify

  13. #48
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by cincinnatikid513 View Post
    i'm not don't like the 10 just strange same thing happened last year odds on patch went from double digits to like 5-1 early but then they creeped back up later in the day favorites have won the last 5 derbys so we'll see if that trend continues with justify
    Patch was just sentimental money because he was one-eyed horse.

  14. #49
    batt33
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    7,11,18

  15. #50
    ByeShea
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    Quote Originally Posted by cincinnatikid513 View Post
    i'm not don't like the 10 just strange same thing happened last year odds on patch went from double digits to like 5-1 early but then they creeped back up later in the day favorites have won the last 5 derbys so we'll see if that trend continues with justify
    Betting is paramutuel, so the owner of the horse probably bet $100g to win or something - that could wreak some temporary havoc with the odds before raceday money starts rolling in.

    EDIT: Still there at 5-1, 1pm EST. That's unusually heavy movement for most races, but especially the Derby. I have no explanation except that the dough is flowing.

    Doesn't effect my bet - good luck to that money.
    Last edited by ByeShea; 05-05-18 at 12:06 PM.

  16. #51
    SBR Tony
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    Quote Originally Posted by ByeShea View Post
    Betting is paramutuel, so the owner of the horse probably bet $100g to win or something - that could wreak some temporary havoc with the odds before raceday money starts rolling in.

    EDIT: Still there at 5-1, 1pm EST. That's unusually heavy movement for most races, but especially the Derby. I have no explanation except that the dough is flowing.

    Doesn't effect my bet - good luck to that money.
    He's getting money because he loves a sloppy or muddy track

  17. #52
    sourtwist
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    Lone sailor

    One time baby

  18. #53
    SBR Tony
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    Quote Originally Posted by sourtwist View Post
    Lone sailor

    One time baby
    Also ran on a wet track

  19. #54
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by SBR Tony View Post
    He's getting money because he loves a sloppy or muddy track
    But why him in particular when there are 6 other horses that have won on off tracks?

    IN SLOPPY OR MUDDY CONDITIONS
    ►Flameaway (2-0-0, 2 races)
    ►Firenze Fire (1-0-0, 1)
    ►Justify (1-0-0, 1)
    ►My Boy Jack (1-0-0, 1)
    ►Enticed (1-0-0, 1)
    ►Lone Sailor (1-0-0, 1)
    ►- Combatant (0-1-0, 1)

  20. #55
    SBR Tony
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    Which Kentucky Derby Runners Would Benefit From a Wet Track?

    April 28th
    There will probably be about 160,000 fans in attendance at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May, yet there’s one uninvited guest who we hoped would stay away but decided to pay an extended visit.
    After months of prep races to determine the abilities of each starter in the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve, it is a little frustrating, to say the least, to watch Mother Nature sneak in between the Twin Spires with steady rain Saturday that turned the main track muddy on Derby day.
    Let’s take a few minutes to see who should benefit or suffer if there’s a wet or sloppy racetrack.
    For starters, chalk players will be fine. Justify, the undefeated Santa Anita Derby winner and probable betting favorite, has experience on a wet track, even though it supposedly never rains in Southern California. The son of Scat Daddy romped by 6 ½ lengths in an allowance race at Santa Anita on March 11 over a racetrack rated muddy.

    For the most part, the eight prospective Derby starters who have raced on a wet track have done well on it.
    One race that stands out is the lone graded 3-year-old stakes with a Derby starter that was contested on a wet track. That was the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park on Feb. 19. My Boy Jack, who went on to capture the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland, posted a 4 ½-length victory in the Grade 3 stakes over Combatant, a possible Derby starter, on a muddy track.
    Flameaway and Firenze Fire are the only ones with more than one start on an off track. Firenze Fire won the Jerome Stakes at Aqueduct on Jan. 13 over a muddy track by a half-length, but was fourth on a wet-fast track labeled as good in the Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes at Saratoga.
    Flameaway won both of his starts on a wet track at 2, winning the Grade 3 Bourbon on Oct. 8 by a nose on a sloppy track and taking the Skidmore Stakes at Saratoga on Aug. 18 by a length and a half on a muddy track. A key element with Flameaway’s wet-track wins is that they came in races washed off the turf, raising doubts about the quality of the competition in races that were originally scheduled to be run on a grass course.
    Lone Sailor is in the same boat as Flameaway. His wet track effort was an 11-length blowout at Saratoga on Sept. 3 on a sloppy in another race that was moved from the turf course to a gooey main track.
    Enticed found a muddy track waiting for him for his Sept. 4 career debut at Saratoga and promptly notched a length and three quarters victory.
    Finally, Free Drop Billy ran on a wet-fast track at Saratoga in the Hopeful and finished second, beating Firenze Fire.
    For everyone else, predicting their chances on a wet track will be based on the pedigree. In what is shaping up to be a spectacular Derby with a deep roster of talented horses, it is unfortunate to see Mother Nature make her presence felt in the starting gate?

  21. #56
    SBR Tony
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    But why him in particular when there are 6 other horses that have won on off tracks?

    IN SLOPPY OR MUDDY CONDITIONS
    ►Flameaway (2-0-0, 2 races)
    ►Firenze Fire (1-0-0, 1)
    ►Justify (1-0-0, 1)
    ►My Boy Jack (1-0-0, 1)
    ►Enticed (1-0-0, 1)
    ►Lone Sailor (1-0-0, 1)
    ►- Combatant (0-1-0, 1)
    No, I agree with you. I can't tell why him, more than the others

    Has to be the owners betting the crap out of him

  22. #57
    cecil127
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    a muddy three horse exacta box would be 7/8/10

  23. #58
    sourtwist
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    Quote Originally Posted by SBR Tony View Post
    Also ran on a wet track
    Would love to see it again

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