[t-wizzle]

I liked Utah at 4.5 to cover. Can’t take it at 3.5. It will be a close game. I may live bet or halftime bet it.

[meyer0416]

Dont like it tonight. Both cleveland and houston will get off to hot starts and the pacers may not get blown out but will be happy tied at 1-1 heading home. Its quite funny that when you’re considered one of the best in your profession that one bad game/round/match can completey swing the pendulum, ill be looking for Lebron and co. to swing it back the other way tonight and LBJ goes off for 29 - 11 assists - 9 boards.
Cavs 109-100
The wolves on the other hand might score 100-110 points but their D as shown all season will struggle and houston will put up 115-125 points and you’ll be seeing 3 signs being flashed all night. When the beard gets his rest look for paul to do what he does best, penetrate and score. Wolves will be in for a blood bath if houston shoots over 35% from deep.
Houston 118-102

I’d call that a hot start.

[KRIT]

GL Wiz, looks like you are killin NBA playoffs like usual.

You think many of these weaker seeds can make noise when series swing home for games 3-4? Bucks look like a decent play in game 3, just hate that they are totally outmatched from a coaching perspective. Surprised to see Heat getting points at home and Wiz laying points.

[t-wizzle]

GL Wiz, looks like you are killin NBA playoffs like usual.

You think many of these weaker seeds can make noise when series swing home for games 3-4? Bucks look like a decent play in game 3, just hate that they are totally outmatched from a coaching perspective. Surprised to see Heat getting points at home and Wiz laying points.

I took Celtics 4-1 and 4-0 before the series. Public perception was that Milwaukee could upset the weakened Boston team but I just feel as though something is fundamentally wrong with the Bucks. First off their coach is not an nba level head coach. They don’t respond to him whatsoever. Giannis is great but we know his flaws. That said, all Boston did was protect home court. The Bucks have the talent to wear the Celtics down over a 7 game series but I just don’t trust them. They have a bad aura right now. I think they’ll drop one at home and lose in 5.

Books have given the Sixers a ton of respect and they’ve earned it. I wasn’t surprised they laid a dud the other night. Miami was physical with them. They picked up Simmons full court and it threw him off his game. They fought over screens and made Redick and the other shooters work to get their shots off. Philly was bound to regress. Could it be coming at an inopportune time? Maybe. What I know for sure is they need Embiid if they have hopes of advancing deep. This is the first time they’ve faced real adversity this year. I’m excited to see how they respond. I believe they will reclaim homecourt, I’m just not sure which game they will win.

Don’t bother with the Wizards. This is payback for 3 years ago. I’m a bit annoyed at myself for laying off last night. I knew Raptors would win but I just thought the line was pretty sharp. The wizards could salvage one game at home but that’s all I see. Don’t be surprised if the Raptors sweep. Over 48 minutes in a game, they will prove to be the superior team.

I can see Portland getting back in that series. It’s all about how hot Lillard and McCollum can get. I liked the Pelicans to win that series from the getgo because I love what Holiday has done all year. Sliding over to the 2 has been huge. He was always a more natural scorer than facilitator. Now that he’s healthy and playing alongside Rondo, we really see him thriving. Davis is a nightmare for most teams but especially Portland. Nurkic can’t guard him. They try to hide him on Mirotic and let Aminu guard Davis but that doesn’t really work either.

[Richard Clock]

Celts are +6.5 in Game 3, feels like SUCH a trap/square play, but I don't give a penetrate, playing for a unit. Is home court that big of an advantage for the Bucks that the line is this high? The Bucks are 0-2 and have generally been outplayed and outcoached. Neither of the games felt flukey.

[t-wizzle]

Celts are +6.5 in Game 3, feels like SUCH a trap/square play, but I don't give a penetrate, playing for a unit. Is home court that big of an advantage for the Bucks that the line is this high? The Bucks are 0-2 and have generally been outplayed and outcoached. Neither of the games felt flukey.

Bucks probably win and cover honestly but like I said I do think Boston wins a game there.

[survive]

I’d call that a hot start.

I’d call that a pacers cover

[t-wizzle]

I’d call that a pacers cover

Yessir.

[Richard Clock]

Bucks probably win and cover honestly but like I said I do think Boston wins a game there.

When a line seems too good to be true and the public is all over it, I usually stay away or bet the opposite side. Also, a bit of recency bias is at play here, which I usually try to combat. I acknowledge all of this, but I still am willing to lay down a unit on the Celts here. I think the books are giving the Bucks way too much credit here for their supposed "talent" advantage. They have ultimately underperformed this entire season and have disappointed so far in the playoffs. I think they have a decent shot of winning this game outright, but they have done nothing over this entire season sample size to warrant this high of a line. Also, the discrepancy in head coaching is as massive as any playoff series, which matters. Just a more modern, more disciplined, more versatile, much better prepared team. I can't wait to eat shit on this one.

[t-wizzle]

When a line seems too good to be true and the public is all over it, I usually stay away or bet the opposite side. Also, a bit of recency bias is at play here, which I usually try to combat. I acknowledge all of this, but I still am willing to lay down a unit on the Celts here. I think the books are giving the Bucks way too much credit here for their supposed "talent" advantage. They have ultimately underperformed this entire season and have disappointed so far in the playoffs. I think they have a decent shot of winning this game outright, but they have done nothing over this entire season sample size to warrant this high of a line. Also, the discrepancy in head coaching is as massive as any playoff series, which matters. Just a more modern, more disciplined, more versatile, much better prepared team. I can't wait to eat shit on this one.

Can’t disagree with anything you said here.

[Richard Clock]

Can’t disagree with anything you said here.

This still feels like a trap play but we will have to see. I am willing to gamble on this one and be wrong.

PS, just discovered this thread and I appreciate your insight. One of the only threads on the NBA side of this forum that is worthing checking into. Hope you don't mind my occasional ramblings. Blazers +3 on road and Spurs +3.5 at home are interesting...

[t-wizzle]

This still feels like a trap play but we will have to see. I am willing to gamble on this one and be wrong.

PS, just discovered this thread and I appreciate your insight. One of the only threads on the NBA side of this forum that is worthing checking into. Hope you don't mind my occasional ramblings. Blazers +3 on road and Spurs +3.5 at home are interesting...

By all means. That’s why I make this thread every year. I encourage the discussion. I post and track plays but I want this thread to be a place where people can come talk about the games.

[t-wizzle]

Well I left Utah and Minnesota just packed it in after a solid first quarter. Ugh.

[meyer0416]

I’d call that a pacers cover

Doesn’t matter when you don’t have the full spread

[Seto]

Nice start in here bro.

[t-wizzle]

Nice start in here bro.

Thanks pal. I should be up more. I’ve left some games. Looks like I’m giving a chunk back on Minny tonight too.

[Seto]

GL Wiz, looks like you are killin NBA playoffs like usual.

You think many of these weaker seeds can make noise when series swing home for games 3-4? Bucks look like a decent play in game 3, just hate that they are totally outmatched from a coaching perspective. Surprised to see Heat getting points at home and Wiz laying points.

It's just the classic line adaptation based on which team is more "desperate".

It's literally depressing to watch the Bucks, Wiz and Thunder play. How those 3 coaches are still employed is beyond me.

[Seto]

Doesn’t matter when you don’t have the full spread

Yeah I had the Cavs first quarter, Cavs first half, Pacers second half and Pacers full game too. So easy.

[Seto]

Thanks pal. I should be up more. I’ve left some games. Looks like I’m giving a chunk back on Minny tonight too.

They could still cover but i figure they blew their chance to win in Houston the other day. Think they'll do well in game 3.

[JayDr3am]

nah minny is done. bastards

[survive]

Well I left Utah and Minnesota just packed it in after a solid first quarter. Ugh.

I was surprised you didn’t take Utah. Not sure if OKC is consistent enough to cover two in a row

[Jayvegas420]

I was surprised you didn’t take Utah. Not sure if OKC is consistent enough to cover two in a row

The Pelicans haven't covered three spreads in a row, maybe the Blazers +3 are worth a shot tonight?

[Richard Clock]

The Pelicans haven't covered three spreads in a row, maybe the Blazers +3 are worth a shot tonight?

Line up to +3 1/2 on 5Dimes, so I am very happy to take the Blazers here. Blazers made some necessary adjustments to their minutes distribution last game (Harkless returning from injury at 27 mins played is HUGE for the Blazers strategically and because it displaces some of Turner's bad minutes, more Collins, less Nurkic/Turner, more Connaughton for spacing purposes). Blazers were victim to another poor shooting night for Lillard 1-7 in 3PA, and some unsustainable shooting for Pelicans (50% from 3 on 24 attempts). Lillard always has that potential for a blowup game, even with Holliday playing elite defense. Still, I don't necessarily think Lillard has to drop 40 for the Blazers to win this game outright.

[t-wizzle]

I was surprised you didn’t take Utah. Not sure if OKC is consistent enough to cover two in a row

I liked Utah but thought they would lose a tight game.

[ikid2groove415]

The Pelicans haven't covered three spreads in a row, maybe the Blazers +3 are worth a shot tonight?

Pelicans playing GOOD basketball rondo and holiday can auctually play defense to TAME CJ and dame - Portland is in trouble

[survive]

Line up to +3 1/2 on 5Dimes, so I am very happy to take the Blazers here. Blazers made some necessary adjustments to their minutes distribution last game (Harkless returning from injury at 27 mins played is HUGE for the Blazers strategically and because it displaces some of Turner's bad minutes, more Collins, less Nurkic/Turner, more Connaughton for spacing purposes). Blazers were victim to another poor shooting night for Lillard 1-7 in 3PA, and some unsustainable shooting for Pelicans (50% from 3 on 24 attempts). Lillard always has that potential for a blowup game, even with Holliday playing elite defense. Still, I don't necessarily think Lillard has to drop 40 for the Blazers to win this game outright.

Good write up. I don’t see NO sweeping this series so I might just do a ML chase with Portland for these next two games

[ikid2groove415]

Good write up. I don’t see NO sweeping this series so I might just do a ML chase with Portland for these next two games

They will get sweep- save your money man - pelicans clearly the better team winning 2 games on the road

[ikid2groove415]

Portland backcourt is getting lockdown - DOA on Portland - holiday and rondo can play defense

[europe_baller]

Portland backcourt is getting lockdown - DOA on Portland - holiday and rondo can play defense

I agree Pelicans just bad matchup for blazers..nobody can guard davis..either too long for nurkic and quick or for aminu and others.pelicans did hit all big shots in 2nd game too and 50% for three so that is not going to happen every time and that is my reason if i pick portland... They need connaghton to spread the floor and he is quick on defense.. but blazers dont pass ball much around..every time it is quick pick and pull up jumper..those are bad shots with game on the line... no side to side etc.. no offensive boards because pelicans defense is set.. they need to pass it more around and lillard and mccolum to trust teammates.. then they will get good shots and knock them down..

[shadymcgrady]

Forget portland, no one can guard davis period. He's achieved his lofty predraft potential and projections by becoming one of the few players that is always going to get his no matter what

Portland has to limit everyone else and dare rondo to shoot if they want a chance to get back in

Also a bone head decision or two from gentry in crunch time wouldn't hurt either

Holiday has been a pleasant suprise after spending most of his career mired in injury. He is much bigger and quicker than he looks on the court

[europe_baller]

Forget portland, no one can guard davis period. He's achieved his lofty predraft potential and projections by becoming one of the few players that is always going to get his no matter what

Portland has to limit everyone else and dare rondo to shoot if they want a chance to get back in

Also a bone head decision or two from gentry in crunch time wouldn't hurt either

Holiday has been a pleasant suprise after spending most of his career mired in injury. He is much bigger and quicker than he looks on the court

true about davis..yeah they have to give up somewhere but high pick with davis is almost unguardable because they either throw it up high or rondo and jrue reads it well and finish it or kick for wide open 3.. but portland might take game tonight...we will see

[shadymcgrady]

The problem with portland imo is that they don't have a wing player like igoudala or a draymond green

Lillard and McCollum headline the Blazers much the same way curry and klay did with golden state before durant

Before draymond green ascended they had superb play from a jack of all trades and super athletic small forward or wing in igoudala who still had some good mileage left from Denver

Iggy would double as the best defender and best finisher in transition while also contributing across the board in steals, blocks, whatever

Portland doesn't have that in 1 player but rather in several which doesn't bode well in terms of a fluid tempo

Trying to replicate Iggy with Evan turner, al Farooq aminu and moe harkless may work on paper over 82 games but certainly not in a must win playoff series. Hiring 3 guys to replicate the output of 1 individual doesn't work with a limited 5 man roster

[Richard Clock]

Keep hearing about how Davis is "unstoppable" in this matchup. In Game 2, the switch of Aminu to guard AD and cutting the minutes of Nurkic seemed to be effective (Anthony Davis only had 22 points on 50% shooting versus the 35 he dropped in Game 1). Anthony Davis is still one of the most statistically inconsistent superstars in the league (see David Locke's research) and always has the potential to pickup an injury or just generally play mediocre (by his standards). Additionally, his impact in clutch situations late in games is limited relative to other superstars since he doesn't bring the ball up (like Harden, Lebron, etc.) and therefore, needs other players to set him up to score rather than the other way around (see AD's clutch-time usage versus the other superstars). Point is, AD can still get "his" within reason and the Blazers can still win. The big question is will the streaky outside shooters in Rondo, Mirotic, Darius Miller continue to make those necessary outside shots at a high rate, and will Dame and CJ continue to struggle. At + 3 1/2, I am willing to gamble on the Blazers bouncing back and combating some of the recency bias floating around. PS, I don't trust Gentry either

[europe_baller]

Keep hearing about how Davis is "unstoppable" in this matchup. In Game 2, the switch of Aminu to guard AD and cutting the minutes of Nurkic seemed to be effective (Anthony Davis only had 22 points on 50% shooting versus the 35 he dropped in Game 4). Anthony Davis is still one of the most statistically inconsistent superstars in the league and always has the potential for a mediocre game. Additionally, his impact in clutch situations late in games is limited relative to other starters since he doesn't bring the ball up (like Harden, Lebron, etc.) and therefore, needs other players to set him up to score rather than the other way around. Point is, AD can still get "his" within reason and the Blazers can still win. The big question is will the streaky outside shooters in Rondo, Mirotic, Darius Miller continue to make necessary outside shots, and will Dame and CJ continue to struggle. At + 3 1/2, I am willing to gamble on the Blazers bouncing back and combating some of the recency bias floating around. PS, I don't trust Gentry either

All good points.. but when blazers clogged the paint so ad doesnt get the lob it opens up everything..he doesnt have to score on every possession to be effective.. I will probably play blazers but those are just some concerns that I have.. and there is no really streaky shooters if they are wide open over and over again while DL and CJ keep forcing shots after first pick and roll.. Blazers have to play all around better ball. I dont trust Gentry either lol..

[shadymcgrady]

Portland has to be the play tonight, 1h, ats and moneyline for both