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Best College Football Bets For Week 5
Best college football bets for Week 5
Phil Steele, Chris Fallica and "Stanford Steve" Coughlin
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
As we enter the heart of the college football season, each team reveals more about itself by the week and each game offers a chance for the most observant bettors to take advantage of what they learn. Every Thursday, Phil Steele, Chris Fallica and "Stanford Steve" Coughlin pick their top plays across the college football landscape.
Here are the best bets for Week 5 of the college football season.
Records:
Phil Steele: 11-14-1 ATS (4-3-1 last week)
Stanford Steve: 14-7 (2-3 last week)
Chris Fallica: 13-10 ATS (4-2 last week)
Note: Lines from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Wednesday night. As always, shop for the best price.
California Golden Bears vs. Oregon Ducks(-2.5, o/u 58.5)
10:30 p.m. ET, Saturday (FS1)
Steele: The situation clearly favors California as it is fresh off a bye and Oregon is coming off an emotional overtime loss at home to Stanford where the Ducks blew a 24-7 second-half lead. I thought coming into the season that the top two teams in the Pac-12 were Washington and Stanford, but Oregon has performed well overall so far this season. The Ducks proved they could play with Stanford and had a 304-105 edge in yards at the half last week. Had Oregon running back CJ Verdell's foot stayed inbounds and not hit the pylon, the Ducks would have gone up 31-7, probably would have won the game by three or more scores and would be a full touchdown favorite in this game. That would have made for a letdown spot, but instead, we get a premier Pac-12 team off a loss and favored by less than a field goal. The Ducks are also 8-1 straight up in the series the past nine matchups.
ATS pick: Oregon -2.5
Score: Oregon 30, California 23
Fallica: Our numbers have Cal as a slight favorite here and recent trends support a play on the Bears as well. Oregon is 2-8 both ATS and straight up in its past 10 road games and Cal is 4-0 ATS with two outright wins as a home 'dog under Justin Wilcox. That doesn't even factor in how Oregon bounces back psychologically from giving a game away last week vs. Stanford. Cal has a top-30 defense in terms of expected points and the offense should continue to improve as Chase Garbers gets more experience.
ATS pick: Cal +2.5
Score: Cal 33, Oregon 31
Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Ohio State Buckeyes (-3.5, 71.5)
7:30 p.m. ET, Saturday (ABC)
Coughlin: I know I am on the wrong side here. One team averages 55 points and the other averages 54. Take the under.
ATS pick: Under 71.5
Score: Penn State 31, Ohio State 28
Boston College Eagles (-13.5) vs. Temple Owls
12 p.m. ET, Saturday (ESPNU)
Coughlin: Chalk this one up as one of the uglier games you will see this coming weekend. One team (BC) comes in fresh off a loss where it turned the ball over four times, and it was also the first game the Eagles came in ranked in the AP top 25 in 10 years. The other team (Temple) lost its first two games of the season to Villanova and Buffalo. Since then, the Owls have beaten a pretty good Maryland team, which was previously undefeated until Temple came in to College Park. Both teams give up an average of less than 25 points and 370 yards a game. So, it won't be the prettiest contest. I would expect BC to try to get AJ Dillon going after he rushed for only 59 yards last week. I think Temple keeps it close enough to cover.
ATS pick: Temple +13.5
Score: Boston College 20, Temple 10
Air Force Falcons (-6.5) vs. Nevada Wolf Pack
4 p.m. ET, Saturday (ESPNEWS)
Coughlin: The Wolf Pack come in having given up a combined 139 points in their past three games. One was a win vs. Oregon State and that was sandwiched between road losses at Vanderbilt and Toledo. So this Nevada team has been traveling a lot and giving up a ton of points to teams that run different types of offense. But this week it heads to Colorado Springs and face the vaunted Air Force option attack. Last year, the Falcons rushed for 550 yards in a win over the Wolf Pack in Reno, and this year they're averaging almost 300 a game on the ground. I look for the Falcons to rebound after a tough loss to Utah State last week as they win and cover the points.
ATS pick: Air Force -6.5
Score: Air Force 51, Nevada 27
Steele: Last year, Air Force ran for a season-best 550 yards, limited Nevada's time of possession to 19 minutes and won by three points on the road. Last week, Nevada lost 63-44 at Toledo, so this is its third road game in four weeks as it also lost at Vanderbilt by 31 on Sept. 8. Air Force impressed me last week with 323 yards rushing against a stout Utah State defense on the road last week. Nevada is just 1-7 straight up on the road as a member of the Mountain West, and Air Force is 21-4 straight up at home overall the past five years including 15-8-1 ATS. My individual games grades have Air Force by 14 points, and the Falcons are laying less than a touchdown here.
ATS pick: Air Force -6.5
Score: Air Force 48, Nevada 34
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Purdue Boilermakers (-3.5, 57.5)
3:30 p.m. ET, Saturday (Big Ten Network)
Coughlin: Nebraska really needs a win, as it has a trip to Madison coming up next week that doesn't look too promising for a first win of the season. Quarterback Adrian Martinez returned last week for the Cornhuskers, but they were demolished by Michigan. That was a week after they lost to Troy in Lincoln, scoring only 19 points with a redshirt freshman walk-on at quarterback. The last time Martinez started, Nebraska scored 28 points and he missed most of the fourth quarter because of injury. Purdue comes in off its first win of the season, as the Boilermakers scored 30 over previously unbeaten and ranked Boston College. They come in scoring 70 points in their past two games, led by QB David Blough, who has thrown for 868 yards and six TDs in those two games. Points will be scored, so take the over.
Pick: Over 57.5
Score: Purdue 34, Nebraska 30
Steele: Nebraska is a much better team than its 0-3 record would indicate. In their first two games, the Cornhuskers outgained two quality teams in Colorado and Troy by 141 yards per game despite starting a backup quarterback against Troy. In 2016, UCF lost to Michigan 51-14, but their head coach at the time, Scott Frost, said he felt that UCF "outhit" the Wolverines. Michigan at home was highly motivated last week and drubbed Nebraska 56-10. The Cornhuskers are back at home, desperate for a win, and will have Martinez starting at QB. At 0-3, Purdue was in a similar circle-the-wagons game last week and upset a Boston College team that had been reading its press clippings. Purdue has been an away favorite only once over the past six years and lost that game outright to Rutgers last year. This matchup with Purdue is Nebraska's only home game in a four-week span, and it will get its first win of the season.
ATS pick: Nebraska +3.5
Score: Nebraska 31, Purdue 27
Florida Atlantic Owls (-3.5) at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
7 p.m. ET, Saturday
Steele: Middle Tennessee had a streak of nine straight wins over the Florida Atlantic snapped last season. The Blue Raiders were without starting quarterback Brent Stockstill, and their backup QB tossed three interceptions in a 38-20 loss despite having a 454-413 edge in yards. FAU went on to win the Conference USA championship. Though Middle Tennessee is 1-2, its losses were on the road to a pair of SEC teams, including No. 2 Georgia. The Blue Raiders have Stockstill back this year, and he is completing 69 percent of his passes with a 7-2 ratio so far this season. Middle Tennessee is fresh off a bye week, and FAU just battled UCF in a much-anticipated matchup of two of last year's top Group of 5 teams. This edition of the Owls pales in comparison to last year as they are 0-4 against the spread and rank No. 128 in my pass efficiency defense rankings. Middle Tennessee is a team that is well-rested and will grab a key conference home win.
ATS pick: Middle Tennessee +3.5
Score: Middle Tennessee 37, Florida Atlantic 34
Clemson Tigers (-24) vs. Syracuse Orange
Noon ET, Saturday (ABC)
Steele: Clemson is playing with legitimate revenge on its mind. Last year, quarterback Kelly Bryant was hobbled and not able to run in the first half, then missed the second half, and Syracuse was fired up at home and pulled the outright upset 27-24 as a 23.5-point underdog. This Syracuse team is a confident bunch that is 4-0 this season and had a 441-240 edge in yards against Florida State two weeks ago. Last year, Syracuse covered on the road in places like LSU, Miami and Florida State, losing those games by only 11, eight and three points, respectively. In Clemson's past 19 ACC games, only three have been won by more than 22 points. Clemson is also 1-8 ATS as an ACC favorite of 20-plus points. There could be some questions in the Clemson locker room with Bryant announcing he was leaving the team. Last week, Clemson played every player on the team to build up its depth, and now will be working in a new backup quarterback.
ATS pick: Syracuse +24
Score: Clemson 38, Syracuse 20
Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-5.5) vs. Stanford Cardinal
7:30 p.m. ET, Saturday (NBC)
Steele: Last year, the Irish led 20-17 in the fourth quarter, but Stanford got 18- and 29-yard touchdown drives after turnovers by Notre Dame and won 38-20 despite being outgained 415-328. The home team is 16-5 straight up in this series. Last week, at one point in the second half, Stanford had just a 1 percent chance of winning against Oregon, and while the Ducks had a 524-398 edge in yards, Stanford got the miracle overtime victory. Meanwhile, the Irish throttled Wake Forest on the road behind quarterback Ian Book, who threw for two scores and rushed for three more in the 29-point win with Notre Dame gaining 566 yards. Stanford is coming off that thrilling late-night comeback win, has classes starting this week, must travel nearly 2,300 miles and has a huge Pac-12 game against Utah on deck. Notre Dame already beat a tough Michigan team at home this year and will pick up another marquee home victory in this game.
ATS pick: Notre Dame -5.5
Score: Notre Dame 27, Stanford 16
Wyoming Cowboys vs Boise State Broncos(-17)
4 p.m. ET, Saturday (CBSSN)
Fallica: Two years ago, the Cowboys beat the Broncos in Laramie; last year they lost a tight game in Boise. The Wyoming defense held Boise to 28 and 24 points in those two games and I think this defense has a chance to better than the previous two. While the Cowboys haven't been great since midway through the third quarter versus Washington State, I think the start of conference play, at home, as a big underdog will allow Wyoming to play a better game. Coming off a loss at Oklahoma State I think Boise will win, but this one will be within the number.
ATS pick: Wyoming +17
Score: Boise State 31, Wyoming 17
UConn Huskies vs. Cincinnati Bearcats (-18)
12:30 p.m. ET, Saturday (CBSSN)
Fallica: Who loves bad teams? This guy. The UConn defense is the worst in the country. But Cincinnati laying 17 on the road on the heels of a dramatic win against its instate rival last week? Randy Edsall and his defensive staff has been under a lot of heat this week and as a big home 'dog against a team in a bit of a letdown spot, I'll hold my nose and grab the points.
ATS pick: Connecticut +18
Score: Cincinnati 38, Connecticut 24
San Jose State Spartans vs. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (-12)
4 p.m. ET, Saturday
Fallica: As bad as things were last year for San Jose State, the Spartans went to Hawaii and outgained them in a game that was in doubt midway through the fourth quarter in an 11-point loss. Yes, SJSU lost to Cal Davis and was shut out in Pullman, but they showed some improvement in the 35-22 loss at Autzen and have had a week off since that one. Our FPI metric has San Jose State as a 1-point favorite in this one, so there is about 14 points of value between our number and the Vegas number.
ATS pick: San Jose State +12
Score: Hawaii 41, San Jose State 34
Fresno State Bulldogs (-7.5) vs. Toledo Rockets
7:30 p.m. ET, Saturday (ESPNU)
Fallica: Fresno State had a week off after blowing out UCLA and now hosts a good Toledo offense that last week beat up on another MWC team (Nevada). Last week I liked a MAC team as a 'dog on the road vs. a MWC team (Eastern Michigan at San Diego State) and the Eagles lost in OT. This week I like the favorite in this spot though, as the Fresno defense will be likely the difference. Our projections have Fresno by 16, so this line seems off in comparison to our projection.
ATS pick: Fresno State -7.5
Score: Fresno State 38, Toledo 28
Mississippi State Bulldogs (-7.5) vs. Florida Gators
3 p.m. ET, Saturday (ESPN)
Fallica: The team Dan Mullen left behind in Starkville just might be more talented than the one he currently has in Gainesville. Florida put 47 on the board last week, but a lot of that was because of turnovers and short fields from Tennessee. This is probably the best possible opponent and situation the Bulldogs could have had after last week's poor offensive performance in Lexington. This is a team that came close to beating Alabama in Starkville last year, looked like a top-10 team in its first three games and defensively should create a lot of problems for an offense that's 62nd nationally in offensive EPA.
ATS pick: Mississippi State -7.5
Score: Mississippi State 30, Florida 17
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