[shari91]

And my world famous, copied everywhere contest will be returning. Well at least copied in Asia so Xiexie and kampai to my Mandarin and Japanese fellow tennis degens. Bloody thieving dills.

Anyway, for the rest of you, anyone who has ever participated in this contest in the past 8 years knows it's not only a bitch to initially enter but also for me to score. To the point where I think even our mate Jesus this weekend would've said "hey Shari, just drive those stakes in a bit harder... your tennis thingie is way more painful than this!" I hate doing this but I love it at the same time. Kind of like childbirth and dealing with some of you

It will be the EXACT same format. I MAY try to come up with a few funky additions to welcome it back into the fold depending on which book I can secure as a sponsor after a brief hiatus but that's a MAY. Either way this won't be for the faint of heart but I promise you - as anyone who has ever entered it can attest - not only will it make your viewing of a Slam that much more exciting, but you'll win on dogs that you had no clue existed before simply because you tin-assed your way in a bracket entry contest and more often than not also put a few bucks on those long shots.

So here's your 53 day heads up... entry will be 20 points... start transferring them to me now if you're a chronic and I'll smell you later when the clay season is in full swing

Horseshoe Head: Piss off before I get Louise to strip that Baseball Mod off ya

[yisman]

I'm waiting for jj to enter, then demand a refund because he can't figure out how to make picks and *insert site* has a much easier format and why can't you just do it like them.

[shari91]

I'm waiting for jj to enter, then demand a refund because he can't figure out how to make picks and *insert site* has a much easier format and why can't you just do it like them.

Friggen tell me about it!!!

My one saving grace this time is that if even some Asian sites are copying this - and they can invent shit for everything - then he needs to piss off for good!! What else am I supposed to do??? I'm not working for bloody Nintendo or even Atari64 with stellar tennis contest capabilities. We do what we can with what we have and we love it!

In fact Yiser, if he doesn't enter this time but keeps bitching, I'll ban his wrinkly ass from every thread I start for two years

[Honeybadger44]

nothing against the bracket competition and big props to Shari for running this... But it would be amazing to have a proper handicapping contest with the lines for every match etc. Probably impossible, since there is no tennis lines in the SBR Sportsbook

[shari91]

nothing against the bracket competition and big props to Shari for running this... But it would be amazing to have a proper handicapping contest with the lines for every match etc. Probably impossible, since there is no tennis lines in the SBR sportsbook

Maaaaaaaaateeeee....if you can get that sorted then

They've tried for me so many damn times over the years. Way too hard with so many matches and heavily fluctuating lines apparently. Most sports, especially American ones, have lines that move but not that hard unless there's some massive event whereas tennis lines jump all over the shop especially in the first few rounds.

We used to have tennis lines in the book for almost every tourney and that ^^^^ is exactly why they got first reduced to just finals, then esemis and finals for Slams and I guess now they don't exist? Not sure but that seems a bit off. The reason for the reduction though is we'd have to manually change them so when there is that dead zone gap of a half an hour or so, we'd get hit by posters trying to take advantage of off lines and then we'd have to either ban or at least remove their betting capabilities. This is actually the only sport that I can think of where we have a big problem. Soccer to some extent too with reversed or heavily moving lines but posters betting that seem to be much more honest. Us tennis bettors were absolute ratshit

[HurryUpAndDrink]

Shari... but I think betting a line that is 20 or 30 cents off is not a reprehensible behavior... is just market shopping. Thats like a casino banning people for counting cards, yes its the norm but it aint good or fair. You are using your brain after all. Why would I bet a -EV number?

Now if there is a line off 100 cents yes, report it... or if it's flipped (as I have done in the past!). Anyway just my 02.

Points sent...I am super curious to see what your tennis contest is all about! I love, love tennis. And French open and clay surface tennis are my fave.

I worked as a line mover for 10 years for shops down here... tennis takes one person to handle it all... and put some other one to handle rest of the sports... since is not much... one solid linemover in Costa Rica charges $1500 a month... depending on the software you use to do it off course... ASI or DGS are versatile... but if you use your own and its a pain I understand why tennis is scrapped and not offered.

[Honeybadger44]

I was not aware of the fact that you guys have to adjust the lines manually. I thought that they are somehow connected with Betonline and copy whatever happens there. In BTP and Beat the Bag competitions, lines would move pretty much simultaneously with BOL lines.

[Honeybadger44]

Shari... but I think betting a line that is 20 or 30 cents off is not a reprehensible behavior... is just market shopping. Thats like a casino banning people for counting cards, yes its the norm but it aint good or fair. You are using your brain after all. Why would I bet a -EV number?

...

Well, there's a thin line between line shopping and betting the steam. The later one is considered as a no-no by the books.

[shari91]

I'm really excited you're going to join Hurry! It's actually an awesome contest but because it's a bracket and of course it goes from 128 players through to 2 who all have to be chosen before the first match, it's absolutely whoreshit to enter. But once people actually do they love it! They find out about players they've never heard of, dogs, etc. Back when TennisInsight was still around I had most of those guys just checking out our contest picks and then debating them which helped every tennis bettor to be honest!

I was not aware of the fact that you guys have to adjust the lines manually. I thought that they are somehow connected with Betonline and copy whatever happens there. In BTP and Beat the Bag competitions, lines would move pretty much simultaneously with BOL lines.

Yeah tennis is just manual. There might be say a 12 hour move but not anything close to an automatic one and also with the time differences everywhere we'd have tennis matches open for betting when they were already over or at least well in before someone caught them. So say Serena would go from -1600 to +200 because everyone in the world found out she was going to play her first match with her baby strapped to her hip but SBR would still have her at -1600 even when she was down 6-0, 6-1 .

Major US sports the lines are fed from books that are US facing hence why BTP and BTB were so simultaneous.... for UK/Aussie/Asian sports that's where the problem lies

It's all good though mate... we do what we can and we have a blast! Cannot bloody wait for the French no matter which contest is going down!

[shari91]

Oh and for the record Hurry, I of course have no problem with someone betting steam... I try (often unsuccessfully mind you) to do it all the time!!

But with certain sports here we're not getting an auto feed so we have/had/still have/they'll get banned people taking shots when either it's a manual feed or ours is off for whatever reason. That to me isn't steam betting... it's trying to take advantage of the very system that allows you to bet from the safety of your home. And of course if someone tries to scam SBR everyone knows how I react to that

[HurryUpAndDrink]

Oh and for the record Hurry, I of course have no problem with someone betting steam... I try (often unsuccessfully mind you) to do it all the time!!

But with certain sports here we're not getting an auto feed so we have/had/still have/they'll get banned people taking shots when either it's a manual feed or ours is off for whatever reason. That to me isn't steam betting... it's trying to take advantage of the very system that allows you to bet from the safety of your home. And of course if someone tries to scam SBR everyone knows how I react to that

OK Shari, completely understand. I wrote that not taking into account you guys have no overnight grading or manual line movement... makes total sense... tennis yes, is a doozy if you dont have overnight movement or someone focusing on that 24/7. I moved tennis manually for years and lol... lovely mondays and tuesdays where there are almost 100 matches in 4-5 diff tourneys is FUN (sarcasm)...

Makes sense! Cant wait for the 50+ days to pass!

[Honeybadger44]

Hurry, considering your experiance with moving the lines for bookmaker, are your bets mostly based on reading the line movement and trying to figure out what it means? Or do you do some traditional handicapping as well?

[shari91]

Hurry, considering your experiance with moving the lines for bookmaker, are your bets mostly based on reading the line movement and trying to figure out what it means? Or do you do some traditional handicapping as well?

Hurry I'd love to know this as well as I've always relied on collating and then 'borrowing' stats from others when needed. And then toss in a few dodgy players thanks to my friend who is a coach. But if there's a way to go about it without having to go through all of that I'd love to know!

[jjgold]

Pass

No bracket software

Pass

[HurryUpAndDrink]

Hurry, considering your experiance with moving the lines for bookmaker, are your bets mostly based on reading the line movement and trying to figure out what it means? Or do you do some traditional handicapping as well?

Line movement is important but as you both probably know is not 100% reliable... it maybe over 50% reliable but still not enough to use that factor alone to make a pick... sports are all different in that regard... tennis is a sport I like to bet the lines as soon as they are up as there are no lineups, or individual player injuries at the last moment that might affect the pick performance... for soccer and NBA for example, if you have a clue who is starting and you want to bet an opener you can do so but knowing any last min scratch or change will move the line against you and decrease the +EV or perceived advantage your pick once had.

I've seen steamers and steam syndicates that win 20 or 30 units a month just to give back 45 the next (then again, you know this at the shop you are working at, steamers bet a lot of numbers at diff places to manipulate lines and bet bigger at other shops, you cannot measure their true success unless you get a hold of all that data and is not feasible)... and so on... steamers are a pain because they force you to move against the market sometimes or move in vain if you are moving lines for PPH since you are affecting all packages... is not an exact science... scalpers are more annoying than anything... in my experience... the biggest winners I've seen at books are not steamers... they dont chase it, they originate it by handicapping or betting with their math models... many try to make models, few have the real tech knowledge to do so... and even when they do, you have to tweak it a lot during, before and after, season after season... IT CONSUMES LOT OF TIME.

I work for a very successful model bettor... I know of his success because I get commission % on his bets... and even he has told me I should even try to bet for profit cause he doesnt believe in handicappers (even if he checks my spreadsheet and sees im 65% on NBA)... and he may be right... 100 game sample is insufficient... 1000 game now we are talking.

Hurry I'd love to know this as well as I've always relied on collating and then 'borrowing' stats from others when needed. And then toss in a few dodgy players thanks to my friend who is a coach. But if there's a way to go about it without having to go through all of that I'd love to know!

Basically working for books taught me 97% of bettors lose lifetime, some a little, some lose fortunes... I started betting for fun measly amounts till last year... and I started trying things handicapping wise... you'll notice that in tennis for example, just like in MMA... being a 1 vs 1 sport... styles MATTER A LOT... for example... I can have 1 fighter beat another with ease 1 week, and lose with another fighter who was defeated by one of the fighters he prev defeated... same in tennis... Del Potro will beat Federer a lot right? and then he will lose against Cilic or Raonic, who Fed has never lost against (I think? LOL)... trends and streaks are real but not eternal... player/squad momentum is real, but there literally dozens of factors.

H2H history, is REALLY important (if its fresh). If Makarova beat Mladenovic in 2012 and never played again til 2017 and Mladenovic won twice in H2H in 2017 does that 2012 match matters? Most likely no, totally diff players and conditions... players regress or get better, polish their serve or their backhand and that changes their style which affects H2H estimations. And H2H we have to analyze the surface too! How much of a blowout the win was or it was just a lucky match that any of the 2 could have won?

Then H2H history is valuable but also, present form? Stamina? Injuries? Motivation? How can you measure motivation really? You can make an informed guess.

Match priority? Is this player really urged to win?... (most are most of the time, competition is addictive) but some players may have everyday life concerns, family issues... some may just want to get it over with to come back home... they play the tourney cause sponsorship deals demand you play a certain amount of tourneys... we will never know for sure.

And this are just 1 or 2 factors I use to handicap... handicappers? we are dart throwing as well, but using information and stats to make an informed guess... I dont consider myself sharp or mathematically gifted AT ALL... I am obsessive and I do have a system to cap... which takes little time really ( I can decide which games and cap them all in 2 hrs or less, 20 games a day)... so is not a nuisance or too time consuming...

I dont even know if I should even give advice, you guys clearly have been doing this (betting/capping) longer than I have... my +EV could be a fluke... 4-5 winning seasons in a row and my ego will be unsustainable lol...

But I think we can all learn from each other and this kind of discussion is certainly what SBR should be about.... drama? not so much

[shari91]

Pass

No bracket software

Pass

You are a rabble.

Next time you f with my contest you are GONE!!

Its 5am so I’m going to sleep now.. if you’re going to be a douchecanoe please do so later


thanks hh

[HurryUpAndDrink]

You are a rabble.

Next time you f with my contest you are GONE!!

Its 5am so I’m going to sleep now.. if you’re going to be a douchecanoe please do so later


thanks hh

Aussies have the best insults... IDK how you down under folks come out with that stuff but its fukkin GOOD STUFF.




EDIT... Irish and Scots also have unbelievable burns... met an Irish poster at another forum that came up with the craziest replies

[Honeybadger44]

Line movement is important but as you both probably know is not 100% reliable... it maybe over 50% reliable but still not enough to use that factor alone to make a pick... sports are all different in that regard... tennis is a sport I like to bet the lines as soon as they are up as there are no lineups, or individual player injuries at the last moment that might affect the pick performance...

I agree. I actually tried to bet the sharp plays before, as an experiment. It's not profitable in the long run. You are basically taking lines which already had all the value sucked out.
I use sharp money moves more as a warning to think twice when I'm on the other side. Sometimes it helps me lay off a bad bet.

Regarding the time of bet placing. I think you could make more profit with being more versatille in that area. Sure, a lot of times there's value with the openers. But with your knowledge and experiance in the industry, you should be able to make a good guess when the line is peaking for the certain market. Getting the line at best possible time is a big part of the battle.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

nice to hear the tennis contests will be back!

[HurryUpAndDrink]

I agree. I actually tried to bet the sharp plays before, as an experiment. It's not profitable in the long run. You are basically taking lines which already had all the value sucked out.
I use sharp money moves more as a warning to think twice when I'm on the other side. Sometimes it helps me lay off a bad bet.

Regarding the time of bet placing. I think you could make more profit with being more versatille in that area. Sure, a lot of times there's value with the openers. But with your knowledge and experiance in the industry, you should be able to make a good guess when the line is peaking for the certain market. Getting the line at best possible time is a big part of the battle.

Agree 100% man, and is just 1 round of the battle! Cause I think mixing capping and line shopping are both necessary! And capping itself have or should have so many variables its not easy... kinda why most bettors decide to just throw darts and bet 3-4 games a day (easier to nail 2 out of 1 than 13 out of 17).

[Honeybadger44]

Agree 100% man, and is just 1 round of the battle! Cause I think mixing capping and line shopping are both necessary! And capping itself have or should have so many variables its not easy... kinda why most bettors decide to just throw darts and bet 3-4 games a day (easier to nail 2 out of 1 than 13 out of 17).

Absolutely. It's incredible how big of a difference can 5cent make in lets say 1000 bets. Eye opening. That's why its so important to get the best line.

I'm not throwing darts, but I'm also kinda fan of that selective approach. Couple of bets per day and that's it. My thinking behind that is that tthe books or market just don't get that many lines wrong. So you really have to carefully pick your spots. Got to have that guerilla warfare mentality. Strike and retreat. If you get in an open field shootout vs the books, your chances get way slimmer.

[HurryUpAndDrink]

Absolutely. It's incredible how big of a difference can 5cent make in lets say 1000 bets. Eye opening. That's why its so important to get the best line.

I'm not throwing darts, but I'm also kinda fan of that selective approach. Couple of bets per day and that's it. My thinking behind that is that tthe books or market just don't get that many lines wrong. So you really have to carefully pick your spots. Got to have that guerilla warfare mentality. Strike and retreat. If you get in an open field shootout vs the books, your chances get way slimmer.

Cant argue w that man... nice metaphor! BOL to you! Sounds like you know your groove!

[Honeybadger44]

Thanks and best of luck to you as well.

[cincinnatikid513]

sounds like fun love me some tennis do you rememer back in the day there was the menstennisforum i always used to go on there to read up about players was kind of a way to find scores as well for the tournaments as this was before flashscore , i really would love to see roger win a 2nd french open but i just read he's skipping it again

[HurryUpAndDrink]

sounds like fun love me some tennis do you rememer back in the day there was the menstennisforum i always used to go on there to read up about players was kind of a way to find scores as well for the tournaments as this was before flashscore , i really would love to see roger win a 2nd french open but i just read he's skipping it again

Before flashscore there was livescore... which came out in 2006 I think.

Cant imagine life without flashscore nowadays.

[cincinnatikid513]

Before flashscore there was livescore... which came out in 2006 I think.

Cant imagine life without flashscore nowadays.

i'm telling u it was rough before livescore before flashscore you had to go on these message boards and forums to try and get scores for the small tournaments

[europe_baller]

i'm telling u it was rough before livescore before flashscore you had to go on these message boards and forums to try and get scores for the small tournaments

yeah sofascore is really great too and probably faster then flashscore... it is great great app too... I use them all

[jjgold]

Too early
Sherry

Start thread 10 days before

[cincinnatikid513]

Thanks for doing the contest i'm sure it will be great. The daily contest have been fantastic and spring poker was a success, really impressed how the sbr staff has given so many great opportunities to sbr pros. Love the French Open really got hooked on the 2004 final between the 2 argentines coria and gaudio. I lost money betting the big fav coria who really choked the final away but it was such a thrilling match. As a huge federer fan it's also been frustrating watching him lose 3 finals in a row to nadal. Every year i would hope this is the year he finally beats nadal and like clock work nadal cleaned his clock. Thankfully federer got 1 french open title to complete the grand slam in 2009. It's also been crazy where i live Tampa Bay area, we actually missed like 2 finals in a row because the station was having a childrens hospital telethon. I remember calling up and pleading with them to put tennis on or at least move it to a another station, no luck with that as i guess raising money for childrens hospital is more important than me viewing french open tennis. I was really hoping federer would go for another french open but this will be his 3rd year in a row skipping it. Guess will have to watch nadal win another one yippy

[hotcross]

I have no idea what Ms. Shari is referring to

What is tennis? the best I can tell, its like a game of oversized ping-pong for rich kids...?

Y'all enjoy the contest but no no no way getting involved here

[stepaside777]

I got so many points but it doesnt let me send

[Honeybadger44]

I got so many points but it doesnt let me send

as a non pro, you can transfer only 2 points per day

[Optional]

[HurryUpAndDrink]

I got so many points but it doesnt let me send

become a pro man, there's great perks

everyone using the site should become a pro in less than 1 year posting...

is just nice and undeniably good to be able to have everybody playing in the contests and poker

[mikejamm]

Love your Tennis contests Shari! Wish you were still doing them for all 4 majors. Really appreciate all the work you put into them. Luv ya babe