1. #36
    SBR Tony
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    Tony if something is -330 I will bet it

    Depends how I feel if I know it is going to win
    yeah we all know when they will win

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  2. #37
    SBR Tony
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    Quote Originally Posted by cincinnatikid513 View Post
    so tony u never bet on kershaw
    How we doing with Kershaw ?

    Think maybe he's just not right now

    I'm sure he will get his, but he not worth betting on right now

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  3. #38
    ikid2groove415
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    Quote Originally Posted by SBR Tony View Post
    How we doing with Kershaw ?

    Think maybe he's just not right now

    I'm sure he will get his, but he not worth betting on right now
    You mean dodgers isn’t worth betting ? They score 1 run in two games for Kershaw

  4. #39
    SBR Tony
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    Quote Originally Posted by ikid2groove415 View Post
    You mean dodgers isn’t worth betting ? They score 1 run in two games for Kershaw
    True but he gave up 2 runs, how many times have you seen him win a 1 run game
    I'm not disagreeing about the Dodgers, they blow right now

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  5. #40
    cincinnatikid513
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    Quote Originally Posted by cincinnatikid513 View Post
    early guesses line miami at la kershaw on mound

    -500 ?
    i've been waiting on this game a while any guesses what will the line be wednesday kershaw at home vs marlins trevor richards

    do we see -600
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  6. #41
    Sam Odom
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post

    Tony if something is -330 I will bet it

    Depends how I feel if I know it is going to win


    Gut Bettor

  7. #42
    jjgold
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    Sammy correct

  8. #43
    Sam Odom
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    JJ , you are a very Rare and Special bettor

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    Fuk the numbers guys

  9. #44
    StackinGreen
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    Certainly -200+, you should always question -180 or higher

  10. #45
    Martinr
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    You're leaving money on the table if you limit yourself to a certain price.

  11. #46
    StackinGreen
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    Quote Originally Posted by Martinr View Post
    You're leaving money on the table if you limit yourself to a certain price.
    Only if you can prove that in a given game a team has X winning percentage in baseball --- problem is that no one can prove it. He wouldn't be asking the question if lots of -200 prices or greater didn't lose fairly frequently

  12. #47
    SBR Tony
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    Quote Originally Posted by cincinnatikid513 View Post
    i've been waiting on this game a while any guesses what will the line be wednesday kershaw at home vs marlins trevor richards

    do we see -600
    it will open in the High 300's, I'm going to say -354, by the time the game starts, you will see -385/400

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  13. #48
    cincinnatikid513
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    Quote Originally Posted by SBR Tony View Post
    it will open in the High 300's, I'm going to say -354, by the time the game starts, you will see -385/400
    that's it high 300's kershaw at home against the marlins has to be higher than that, when the line comes out tommorow gonna come chat u up i'm thinking -450 min
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  14. #49
    SBR Tony
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    Quote Originally Posted by cincinnatikid513 View Post
    that's it high 300's kershaw at home against the marlins has to be higher than that, when the line comes out tommorow gonna come chat u up i'm thinking -450 min
    ok, but don't think you need to wait until tomorrow. Heritage already has a total up ( 8.5ov18 )
    the overnight line will be out tonight

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  15. #50
    cincinnatikid513
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    Quote Originally Posted by SBR Tony View Post
    it will open in the High 300's, I'm going to say -354, by the time the game starts, you will see -385/400
    Miami Marlins at Los Angeles Dodgers - Wednesday, April 25, 2018 7:35 PM959

    Miami Marlins +1 +145 +320 Over 7 +100

    Los Angeles Dodgers -1 -165 -355 Under 7 -120


    very solid on the guess there
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  16. #51
    SBR Tony
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    Quote Originally Posted by cincinnatikid513 View Post
    Miami Marlins at Los Angeles Dodgers - Wednesday, April 25, 2018 7:35 PM959

    Miami Marlins +1 +145 +320 Over 7 +100

    Los Angeles Dodgers -1 -165 -355 Under 7 -120


    very solid on the guess there
    Thanks

    Seems to be holding steady. Saw some 380's early this morning, but Miami getting some love

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  17. #52
    SBR Tony
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    Looks like kershaw has really this season

    I hope most have stayed away

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  18. #53
    Sam Odom
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    Kershaw

    Quote Originally Posted by Sam Odom View Post
    -220

    anything above that someone else can bet


  19. #54
    Martinr
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    Quote Originally Posted by StackinGreen View Post
    Only if you can prove that in a given game a team has X winning percentage in baseball --- problem is that no one can prove it. He wouldn't be asking the question if lots of -200 prices or greater didn't lose fairly frequently
    No, you can't ever prove there's value in a price but at the same time there is pretty much always value on one side and it's just as likely to be on the -200 side as it is on the other side. Research on the favourite/long shot bias actually suggests the value is more often on the -200 side of the bet.
    When those bets lose it's easy to say "see, it's dumb taking short priced favourites in MLB" but it doesn't prove that all -200 bets are poor value (nor does a win prove the opposite).
    When I say you're just leaving money on the table by ignoring short favourites I'm mainly referring to model bettors who set their own lines and will readily back a -200 fav if their model is saying the team actually has a 75% chance of winning though. Not baseball, but the Mayweather-McGregor fight was a good example of that.
    Most bettors don't have the bankroll or the diligence to bet like that, including me, but there are still times when a baseball or sports fan has a fair idea that the -200 is value. I think bankroll mismanagement is the main reason why rec bettors don't bet those games.

  20. #55
    SBR Tony
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    Kershaw going Today , on the Road. opened at -210 @ Pinny

    -185 up to -190

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  21. #56
    SBR Tony
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    A guy can go Broke betting on this rag

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