1. #12321
    homie1975
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    Quote Originally Posted by milwaukee mike View Post
    that's what i don't fully understand

    how can you be extremely happy buying into a market that went down every day since you bought?

    wow i'm extremely happy that i bought a $1200 tv that went on sale for $1100 the next day!
    i am in the 99% group who cannot time it.

    i did not not where it would go after i bought last week.

    so i went into multiple positions i am down 40%+ or more in, and I nibbled more shares on each of them if A) I believe in the company long term and B) I do not feel there is something systemic that is going to crash the market.

    the market timer types (1% or less are successful) can try to time their new entries or average downs, but guys like me sitting on cash reserves will continue DCA and building out the position for a long term hold of 7 to 10 years.

    i will measure my moves today, in the 2029 to 2032 range.

    oh BTW, i have been adding to my BTC and ETH positions too ;-)

  2. #12322
    homie1975
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    Mike pls tell me where the bottom is on each index and/or specific stocks that we / I should track and let's see how you do calling bottoms.

    Respectfully I tell you that on the indexes you'll likely miss by 3%+ on each prediction on your stocks you'll miss by 10%+ on average.

    Try it and see.

  3. #12323
    milwaukee mike
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    Quote Originally Posted by homie1975 View Post
    Mike pls tell me where the bottom is on each index and/or specific stocks that we / I should track and let's see how you do calling bottoms.

    Respectfully I tell you that on the indexes you'll likely miss by 3%+ on each prediction on your stocks you'll miss by 10%+ on average.

    Try it and see.
    you are market timing by buying dips, at the same time you say 99% of market timers are unsuccessful

    when and where did i say that i knew how to call bottoms? all i've said is that the world has changed for the worse... when 2-yr bonds go from 0.5% to 4.2% in a year, then it's OK to buy short-term cds/bonds and sell stocks into rallies

    if you want a stock that i call a bottom on, look at my posts... VRA will be much higher a year from now
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  4. #12324
    milwaukee mike
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    i would also question the logic of adding to btc at 19k and eth at 1300

    you could've had either of those for peanuts a few years ago... at this point i would guess if you have a 7-yr time horizon, gold will be much higher than eth at that point, and i would even argue gold will be higher than btc

    (and yes i'm holding some btc/eth/etc)
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  5. #12325
    homie1975
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    Quote Originally Posted by milwaukee mike View Post
    i would also question the logic of adding to btc at 19k and eth at 1300

    you could've had either of those for peanuts a few years ago... at this point i would guess if you have a 7-yr time horizon, gold will be much higher than eth at that point, and i would even argue gold will be higher than btc

    (and yes i'm holding some btc/eth/etc)
    i am also buying against BTC highs of 67K and ETHE highs of 4.60K

    "why would you buy GOOG or GOOGL now at $97 post split when you could have had it $2.50 at IPO 18 years ago"

    that is foolish thinking. don't go backwards and play the shoulda/coulda/woulda game.

    be forward looking.

    BTC and ETHE at these levels are excellent values for guys like me who have a 10Y horizon.

    Good health to you, Bro.

  6. #12326
    homie1975
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    Quote Originally Posted by milwaukee mike View Post
    you are market timing by buying dips, at the same time you say 99% of market timers are unsuccessful

    when and where did i say that i knew how to call bottoms? all i've said is that the world has changed for the worse... when 2-yr bonds go from 0.5% to 4.2% in a year, then it's OK to buy short-term cds/bonds and sell stocks into rallies

    if you want a stock that i call a bottom on, look at my posts... VRA will be much higher a year from now
    i hope it does well for you and others who own it.

    the chart shows it was $27 at release 12 years ago and now trades at $3.

    i look at that type of company / stock as highly speculative, basically like a penny stock, and i don't want to mess around w/ those speculations when I already do so in crypto which is highly speculative also !!

    again, i wish you and all who are holding VRA, nothing but the best.

    it's just not for me.

  7. #12327
    milwaukee mike
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    Quote Originally Posted by homie1975 View Post
    i am also buying against BTC highs of 67K and ETHE highs of 4.60K

    "why would you buy GOOG or GOOGL now at $97 post split when you could have had it $2.50 at IPO 18 years ago"

    that is foolish thinking. don't go backwards and play the shoulda/coulda/woulda game.

    be forward looking.

    BTC and ETHE at these levels are excellent values for guys like me who have a 10Y horizon.

    Good health to you, Bro.
    agree with that... good discussion
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  8. #12328
    JIBBBY
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    Stock Market down again today. The ship continues to sink.. Dow down 120 points as of the time of this post.
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  9. #12329
    d2bets
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    Quote Originally Posted by JIBBBY View Post
    Stock Market down again today. The ship continues to sink.. Dow down 120 points as of the time of this post.
    Only old people quote the Dow. You're dating yourself, Jibbster.

  10. #12330
    ex50warrior
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    Powell supposed to give a speech tomorrow...will he walk back the hawkish projections he gave last week? If he does it may be just what the market bulls need.

  11. #12331
    d2bets
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    Quote Originally Posted by ex50warrior View Post
    Powell supposed to give a speech tomorrow...will he walk back the hawkish projections he gave last week? If he does it may be just what the market bulls need.
    Why would he do that? What has changed (since last week?) that would cause that? Fed has been consistently clear on the current path and it's not going to change until data clearly changes, which certainly has not happened yet.

  12. #12332
    JIBBBY
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    Quote Originally Posted by d2bets View Post
    Only old people quote the Dow. You're dating yourself, Jibbster.
    Don't make fun of old people as you will be old one day D2.

    I am getting old and can barely keep up with my galaxy S21 smart phone features. I still don't know how to post pictures or a vid on this forum off my laptop either. I'm a tard.

    Hard to teach an old dog new tricks I guess.
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  13. #12333
    d2bets
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    Quote Originally Posted by JIBBBY View Post
    Don't make fun of old people as you will be old one day D2.

    I am getting old and can barely keep up with my galaxy S21 smart phone features. I still don't know how to post pictures or a vid on this forum off my laptop either. I'm a tard.

    Hard to teach an old dog new tricks I guess.
    I think I am already, but maybe not quite in your league. MY AARP card is around the corner.

  14. #12334
    ex50warrior
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    Quote Originally Posted by d2bets View Post
    Why would he do that? What has changed (since last week?) that would cause that? Fed has been consistently clear on the current path and it's not going to change until data clearly changes, which certainly has not happened yet.
    His tough talk/projections seemed to destabilize global markets. The financial system (sovereign debt markets) is in trouble. G7 needs help from Powell to calm the storm.

  15. #12335
    DwightShrute
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  16. #12336
    JIBBBY
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    ^ Trump handed off Biden a booming economy, solid stock market, Speed warp Covid vaccines and a secure border. Low crime also with no wars.

    Look at you now mang!


    Last edited by JIBBBY; 09-27-22 at 07:56 PM.
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    DwightShrute gave JIBBBY 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.

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  17. #12337
    d2bets
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    Quote Originally Posted by ex50warrior View Post
    His tough talk/projections seemed to destabilize global markets. The financial system (sovereign debt markets) is in trouble. G7 needs help from Powell to calm the storm.
    Nothing is destabilized or in trouble. The Dow dropping a couple thousand or whatever is not destablization. Powell's credibility is on the line and he's been consistent. Nothing is changing right now.

  18. #12338
    ex50warrior
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    Quote Originally Posted by d2bets View Post
    Nothing is destabilized or in trouble. The Dow dropping a couple thousand or whatever is not destablization. Powell's credibility is on the line and he's been consistent. Nothing is changing right now.
    The Euro is trading at 20-year lows. British pound has fallen to 35-year lows. Italian govt debt is approaching default levels. UK debt yields are spiking.
    It's not the drop in US equity markets that will pressure Powell to tone down the projections.

  19. #12339
    Yulia74
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    apple ditches iphone production increase after demand falters

  20. #12340
    milwaukee mike
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    Quote Originally Posted by Yulia74 View Post
    apple ditches iphone production increase after demand falters
    i feel like we could've played that somehow!

    Gene Munster Tweets '$AAPL down on reports of iPhone production cuts. This happens every iPhone cycle. Production "cuts" after the launch. Apple always overshoots production goals to its suppliers in the summer and "cuts" in the fall.'

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  21. #12341
    d2bets
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    Quote Originally Posted by ex50warrior View Post
    The Euro is trading at 20-year lows. British pound has fallen to 35-year lows. Italian govt debt is approaching default levels. UK debt yields are spiking.
    It's not the drop in US equity markets that will pressure Powell to tone down the projections.
    I guess you were right in terms of BoE, though I don't see Powell changing course right now.

  22. #12342
    homie1975
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    Quote Originally Posted by ex50warrior View Post
    The Euro is trading at 20-year lows. British pound has fallen to 35-year lows. Italian govt debt is approaching default levels. UK debt yields are spiking.
    It's not the drop in US equity markets that will pressure Powell to tone down the projections.
    this is the issue right here ^

    the VIX and VXN and SPX oscillator are all flashing that the market is in oversold territory and it is time to buy however the headlines and specifically Europe, are the headwinds killing our buzz.

  23. #12343
    DwightShrute
    I don't believe you ... please continue
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    This guy knows his shit


  24. #12344
    Slurry Pumper
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    Given all the scenarios I put out there, it looks more like a modified scenario #1 only that it happened on Wednesday. The SPY came down to almost tag the 200 WMA before ripping back up north. Just like in my most recent post, the number I'm looking for is 376. Until it gets above that I'm in the non believer camp. That doesn't mean that I didn't buy Calls, it just means I'm ready to dump at anytime.
    This morning we see a little pull back, and if it starts to stay below $366 on the SPY, I'll start thinking about unloading the calls. I think they try to make a run for $376 before the monthly close. All the other indices are in the same type of boat as well so if your playing the IWM, and I am, the same thing is going on over there so the line is $167 ish.

    As for Pumping terms that sound dirty this morning, I'm going with RISING STEM:
    A rising stem is a term used to describe an apparatus on top of a valve that is used to control flow operations. These valve are fire proof and can be manual or automated. The description is aptly named as it is really just a long all thread with either a hand wheel or actuator attached to a valve.

  25. #12345
    d2bets
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    Hey, at least the bear market rally lasted one day this time. Went from 1 hour to 2 hours to 1 day. Bottom isn't in, but should be soon. This downturn probably takes us below 3600.

  26. #12346
    milwaukee mike
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    Quote Originally Posted by d2bets View Post
    Hey, at least the bear market rally lasted one day this time. Went from 1 hour to 2 hours to 1 day. Bottom isn't in, but should be soon. This downturn probably takes us below 3600.
    sell the rally strategy still working... buy the dips, not so much

    former high-fliers continue to get crushed... pton/dash/shop hitting new lows

    i've been trading for 30 years, this is the only time i can remember this many stocks being down 90%, and this many major stocks being down 50%
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  27. #12347
    d2bets
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    Quote Originally Posted by milwaukee mike View Post
    sell the rally strategy still working... buy the dips, not so much

    former high-fliers continue to get crushed... pton/dash/shop hitting new lows

    i've been trading for 30 years, this is the only time i can remember this many stocks being down 90%, and this many major stocks being down 50%
    So what's "holding up the market" then? Is it commodities and such? Because it definitely hasn't fallen yet as much as many past selloffs. Overall, the S&P 500 is "only" just short of 25% off its January high. Even just in the 2020 Covid panic the low was about 32% off its high. And 08-09 way more than that.

    Seems like we need a 4%+ down day to have a chance at a capitulation situation.

  28. #12348
    Yulia74
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    german inflation accelerates to 10.2%

    double digits for the 1st time since ww2


  29. #12349
    milwaukee mike
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    Quote Originally Posted by d2bets View Post
    So what's "holding up the market" then? Is it commodities and such? Because it definitely hasn't fallen yet as much as many past selloffs. Overall, the S&P 500 is "only" just short of 25% off its January high. Even just in the 2020 Covid panic the low was about 32% off its high. And 08-09 way more than that.

    Seems like we need a 4%+ down day to have a chance at a capitulation situation.
    well the market as a whole (s&p 500) is being helped by some of the top 10 holding up well (jnj/unh/xom)

    there were definitely a bunch of down 90%'ers in the summer of 2020... just seems like more of the bigger market caps this time around... cvna from 30b to 2b... pton from 50b to 2b... dash from 100b to 20b... dkng from 30b to 6b... nflx from 300b to 100b (nice comeback there lately though)
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  30. #12350
    d2bets
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    Quote Originally Posted by milwaukee mike View Post
    well the market as a whole (s&p 500) is being helped by some of the top 10 holding up well (jnj/unh/xom)

    there were definitely a bunch of down 90%'ers in the summer of 2020... just seems like more of the bigger market caps this time around... cvna from 30b to 2b... pton from 50b to 2b... dash from 100b to 20b... dkng from 30b to 6b... nflx from 300b to 100b (nice comeback there lately though)
    Well if we're just talking high flying tech fall, nothing can match 00-02. That time around many of them just went bust.

    But let's be honest, the runup from 2200 to 4800 in 20 months was pretty ridiculous, fueled by so many temporary things. In many ways, this is a natural reversion to the mean. Somewhat hard to believe that the S&P is still, as of right now, almost 10% higher than the pre-covid Feb 2020 highs. Granted, that's 2.5 years and it's not higher if you factor in inflation, but still. If you were told in Feb 2020 that the S&P would 3625 in Sep 2022, you wouldn't think that was any kind of crash situation.

  31. #12351
    milwaukee mike
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    Quote Originally Posted by d2bets View Post
    Well if we're just talking high flying tech fall, nothing can match 00-02. That time around many of them just went bust.

    But let's be honest, the runup from 2200 to 4800 in 20 months was pretty ridiculous, fueled by so many temporary things. In many ways, this is a natural reversion to the mean. Somewhat hard to believe that the S&P is still, as of right now, almost 10% higher than the pre-covid Feb 2020 highs. Granted, that's 2.5 years and it's not higher if you factor in inflation, but still. If you were told in Feb 2020 that the S&P would 3625 in Sep 2022, you wouldn't think that was any kind of crash situation.
    good points

    the problem for me personally (and others in my situation) is that i have so many long-term bonds/junk bonds that are down 30% at the same time my crypto is down 30%+ and my stocks are down 30%+ and inflation is 10%

    so unlike those past rallies it's been pretty much everything going down... and i stupidly bought so many of those bonds at 100 that are now at 60 (or in the case of bbby 14, cdr/pei pretty much bankrupt), so i can't look back and say "well i'm still up over 3 yrs ago" because i'm way down
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  32. #12352
    d2bets
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    Quote Originally Posted by milwaukee mike View Post
    good points

    the problem for me personally (and others in my situation) is that i have so many long-term bonds/junk bonds that are down 30% at the same time my crypto is down 30%+ and my stocks are down 30%+ and inflation is 10%

    so unlike those past rallies it's been pretty much everything going down... and i stupidly bought so many of those bonds at 100 that are now at 60 (or in the case of bbby 14, cdr/pei pretty much bankrupt), so i can't look back and say "well i'm still up over 3 yrs ago" because i'm way down
    As they say, nowhere to hide. Even gold hasn't done anything.

    You must have still cashed some pretty good profit from that incredible Penn call in March 2020. I should have listened to you when you pounded the table on that at, what, like 3 or 4 bucks. Crazy how it ran to like 130 and now back to 27, around where it was pre-covid.

  33. #12353
    milwaukee mike
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    Quote Originally Posted by d2bets View Post
    As they say, nowhere to hide. Even gold hasn't done anything.

    You must have still cashed some pretty good profit from that incredible Penn call in March 2020. I should have listened to you when you pounded the table on that at, what, like 3 or 4 bucks. Crazy how it ran to like 130 and now back to 27, around where it was pre-covid.
    yeah that was a great run, i stupidly held onto 3000 shares of it from 140 down to 27 because i didn't want to pay the taxes... so there's a $300k hit

    my god, if i would've just gone all-in on penn/mik/home like i was thinking of doing. oh well what did i want 10s of millions of dollars for anyway
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  34. #12354
    Slurry Pumper
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    Don't mention gold, I keep buying that stuff every month and I'm starting to feel like I'm going to be left with a stack of coal when I run out of cash.

  35. #12355
    d2bets
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    Nike getting crushed 5+% on ER after hours, but it's mostly inventory-clearing markdowns and such. Doesn't bode well for the broader market tomorrow as the charts are very super similar and it almost always trades similarly with Nike.

    Really interesting contradictory statements of "strong consumer demand" yet the need for inventory-clearing markdowns.

    I do think inflation is going to ease very soon, if it hasn't already, but it won't be seen for a month or two months at least. It's why it's so tricky for the Fed who doesn't want to prematurely guess wrong again on inflation, but with rapid decreases in demand and perhaps prices meaning that it will almost certainly overshoot the target into a recession. Covid threw everything so out of whack and the Fed was too slow to see it that it's now just about FUBAR.

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