1. #11061
    Madison
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    Quote Originally Posted by homie1975 View Post
    phukken D2er.

    whenever i see you in here i know it's a bad, bad sign for the market

    JK Bud, you are my guy.

    get off the sidelines this time !!!
    Homie, now I great time for you to be more active here. I'm NOT a buy and hold type investor like yourself. Please chirp in as to what you are thinking here as I'm seeing my retirement melt away??

  2. #11062
    Slurry Pumper
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    Quote Originally Posted by Slurry Pumper View Post
    Yeah that bounce I forecasted yesterday lasted all of about 3 hours before the beat down came back in. So how is the week going to end you ask? Probably an early beat down then a late day rescue operation as the short players take profits and we have a rip you a new one rally into the close.

    I believe the SPY is heading towards and it may get to the 200 DMA today (441.70), but even that isn't the downside number I'll be excited about. 438.50 on the SPY is my line in the sand and around this area, I'm a buyer today. This is only short term as the sell the rip is in play and a rip should be coming here pretty soon. Its just a rip and that rip is probably going back to the 9 DMA of what will be around $458 by the time it gets there next week.

    Over on the DAQ if your buying the FANG I think you have some long term stones right now that will eventually pan out. I'm not even looking at them until after the FED announces the rate hike so probably in March is when I'll start to look at what is going on over there. Of course stocks don't go down or up all the time and currently this group does look like the buy the dip crowd is chomping at the bit to get back in. I'm not in that crowd.
    As for today the QQQs going down to find support at $353 is my line in the sand and where I will buy for that into the weekend take my short playing profits and run.

    I'm probably going to step a toe in here today as I did yesterday and almost lost my ass over lunch when I stepped away from the screens for lunch and came back to discover the market had turned down. Anyway, I'll short run a little at a time this morning as the number I stated here are my absolute line in the sand before all hell drops out. If those numbers are breach to the downside then we will have my capitulation selling going on and who knows how far down the panic selling will go. Until then I'm on the regular take profits into the weekend crowd which is what I will be doing myself. It's been a very profitable week and I want to protect those profits and maybe take advantage of any relief that is coming.
    Well lets look at the tale of the tape. The SPY came down and found support at the 200 DMA after spiking through $441.70, then bounced for an hour before cascading down in a slow deliberate manner to my other number $438.50 which is my line in the sand. SPY played around that area for almost an hour with the bull bear battle never closed a 10 minute candle under that number until the very end of the day when they stabbed that bull and plunged under for the low of the day at $437.97 about 10 seconds before the close.

    So the SPY pretty much did what I expected except we didn't get the rip you a new one rally that feels like you are passing a broken half gallon of Whisky out of your colon... sideways of course.

    How about the DAQ you say?

    Well that market came down just like the SPY found support bounced away and at the end of the day trickled back down to the $353 spot putting up candle closes just above and below that level for the last hour before taking the dump the last 10 minutes and closing well below at $351.41.

    I thought that some profit taking would come into play for the short players but I think they just wanted to get it to the next level for support and think about it over the weekend. The bears are in full control here and each rally is met with a systemic selling.
    I'll take a deep look this weekend on the weekly, and monthly charts and try to figure out where the market is headed. I think we are due for a relief but when the market closes the on the low for the week, you have to look and take notice.
    Last edited by Slurry Pumper; 01-21-22 at 04:49 PM.

  3. #11063
    alling
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    Sold half my itm puts at the close. If slide continues early Monday will sell rest. Then wait for next rip for more puts. No where near capitulation either. Thanks Joe Biden

  4. #11064
    guitarjosh
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    I think we bounce soon, but this week was the first time since the Covid rebound that I thought the bull market might be over

  5. #11065
    d2bets
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    Quote Originally Posted by alling View Post
    Sold half my itm puts at the close. If slide continues early Monday will sell rest. Then wait for next rip for more puts. No where near capitulation either. Thanks Joe Biden
    Eve with the current selloff, market is up > 30% since Biden won in about 14 months.

  6. #11066
    jjgold
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    Everything they predicted about Bidenís coming true heís destroying the country and now Russiaís going to take over a lot of land nothing would happen with Trump they are scared to death of him

    Everybody knows Biden is a pussy we are in for a big trouble

    Housing collapses coming and a credit collapse coming

    Many people are in massive debt

  7. #11067
    guitarjosh
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    Quote Originally Posted by guitarjosh View Post
    FINRA released margin debt data today, up 71.6128% YoY, the highest since early 2000. This is only the 5th time since 1959 that margin debt has been up over 60% YoY, and in all previous instances, the Nasdaq has fallen over 30% within 13 months.
    It'll be interesting to see how prescient of a call this will be.

  8. #11068
    homie1975
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    Getting Ready For The Next Leg Up

    By: Kevin Matras
    January 22, 2022

    With the market pulling back from their recent highs, now's the time to start getting ready for the next leg up.
    After heady gains last year, the market was ripe for a pullback. And we're finally getting it.
    But pullbacks are common occurrences.
    Unfortunately, too many investors panic when they happen.
    Some sell. Others short. And some refuse to buy for fear of it going lower.
    But then the market snaps back. And stocks race to new highs, leaving them behind.
    This happens time and time again.
    In fact, the S&P pulled back 3 times last year. And each time, they then soared to new all-time highs afterwards, before ultimately finishing with a 26.9% gain.
    If you missed out on the latest rally due to disbelief, or fear, you don't have to again.
    Because after this pullback, it looks like there's a lot more upside to go.
    Fear Not
    There was nothing ominous in the pullbacks we saw last year.
    They were just your normal, ordinary pullbacks.
    Every bull market has them.
    A pullback is defined as a decline between -5% and -9.99%. And stocks usually pull back about -5% roughly 3-4 times per year.
    That was true with both the Dow and the S&P last year.
    A correction is defined as a decline between -10% and -19.99%. And stocks usually correct -10% on average about once a year.
    That's what the Nasdaq did last year before finishing up 21.4%.
    But these are the pauses that refresh before the next leg up.
    After shaking the tree, it will be exciting to see how high the market can go this time.
    While pullbacks are never fun when they're happening, if you know these are commonplace moves, you can instead look at them as opportunities to buy rather than places to sell.

  9. #11069
    pavyracer
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    The market is sensing that Trump is trying to make a comeback with his lies again so it pulls back with the remote thought that the man who destroyed the stock market will be even be able to have a remote chance of destroying the economu again with his tariffs.

  10. #11070
    d2bets
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    Quote Originally Posted by homie1975 View Post
    Getting Ready For The Next Leg Up

    By: Kevin Matras
    January 22, 2022

    With the market pulling back from their recent highs, now's the time to start getting ready for the next leg up.
    After heady gains last year, the market was ripe for a pullback. And we're finally getting it.
    But pullbacks are common occurrences.
    Unfortunately, too many investors panic when they happen.
    Some sell. Others short. And some refuse to buy for fear of it going lower.
    But then the market snaps back. And stocks race to new highs, leaving them behind.
    This happens time and time again.
    In fact, the S&P pulled back 3 times last year. And each time, they then soared to new all-time highs afterwards, before ultimately finishing with a 26.9% gain.
    If you missed out on the latest rally due to disbelief, or fear, you don't have to again.
    Because after this pullback, it looks like there's a lot more upside to go.
    Fear Not
    There was nothing ominous in the pullbacks we saw last year.
    They were just your normal, ordinary pullbacks.
    Every bull market has them.
    A pullback is defined as a decline between -5% and -9.99%. And stocks usually pull back about -5% roughly 3-4 times per year.
    That was true with both the Dow and the S&P last year.
    A correction is defined as a decline between -10% and -19.99%. And stocks usually correct -10% on average about once a year.
    That's what the Nasdaq did last year before finishing up 21.4%.
    But these are the pauses that refresh before the next leg up.
    After shaking the tree, it will be exciting to see how high the market can go this time.
    While pullbacks are never fun when they're happening, if you know these are commonplace moves, you can instead look at them as opportunities to buy rather than places to sell.
    It's just a pullback unless it's not just a pullback.

  11. #11071
    guitarjosh
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    Quote Originally Posted by homie1975 View Post
    Getting Ready For The Next Leg Up

    By: Kevin Matras
    January 22, 2022

    [FONT="]With the market pulling back from their recent highs, now's the time to start getting ready for the next leg up.[/FONT]
    [FONT="]After heady gains last year, the market was ripe for a pullback. And we're finally getting it.[/FONT]
    [FONT="]But pullbacks are common occurrences.[/FONT]
    [FONT="]Unfortunately, too many investors panic when they happen.[/FONT]
    [FONT="]Some sell. Others short. And some refuse to buy for fear of it going lower.[/FONT]
    [FONT="]But then the market snaps back. And stocks race to new highs, leaving them behind.[/FONT]
    [FONT="]This happens time and time again.[/FONT]
    [FONT="]In fact, the S&P pulled back 3 times last year. And each time, they then soared to new all-time highs afterwards, before ultimately finishing with a 26.9% gain.[/FONT]
    [FONT="]If you missed out on the latest rally due to disbelief, or fear, you don't have to again.[/FONT]
    [FONT="]Because after this pullback, it looks like there's a lot more upside to go.[/FONT]
    [FONT="]Fear Not[/FONT]
    [FONT="]There was nothing ominous in the pullbacks we saw last year.[/FONT]
    [FONT="]They were just your normal, ordinary pullbacks.[/FONT]
    [FONT="]Every bull market has them.[/FONT]
    [FONT="]A pullback is defined as a decline between -5% and -9.99%. And stocks usually pull back about -5% roughly 3-4 times per year.[/FONT]
    [FONT="]That was true with both the Dow and the S&P last year.[/FONT]
    [FONT="]A correction is defined as a decline between -10% and -19.99%. And stocks usually correct -10% on average about once a year.[/FONT]
    [FONT="]That's what the Nasdaq did last year before finishing up 21.4%.[/FONT]
    [FONT="]But these are the pauses that refresh before the next leg up.[/FONT]
    [FONT="]After shaking the tree, it will be exciting to see how high the market can go this time.[/FONT]
    [FONT="]While pullbacks are never fun when they're happening, if you know these are commonplace moves, you can instead look at them as opportunities to buy rather than places to sell.[/FONT]
    What bothers me is how poorly the aggressive sectors are performing against the defensive sectors. XLY has underperformed XLP by over 20% over the past 2 months. It underperformed by less than 18% during an actual bear market in 4Q 2018, and 28% during the Covid selloff.

  12. #11072
    Slurry Pumper
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    Well I had a good look at all the charts this weekend. The SPY is at the top of a support zone with a few levels to go for the $426.50 line in the sand this week. Last week the SPY blew past the 20 WMA (Home Base), flew below the $452.75 support level then picked up speed to the downside going through the 100 DMA ($441.50ish) with only a minor reaction to end up at a level the SPY had a hard time with back last June / July when this price was resistance/ support and the scene of a pretty good bull / bear battle. Do I think tomorrow will just be a plunge through this level with out so much as a fight? Maybe, the market can gap below and continue to drop thus avoiding the support level. I think the bouncing ball theory will come into play sometime early next week however. There will be a bounce here somewhere. If it doesn't start tonight during the futures market, it will probably happen sometime either late Monday or Tuesday. Either way the charts all look like a doomsday event is on the way for the midterm to longer term horizon. I'm selling into any rip and selling tech as a rule.

    I caution all of you FANG players that they have a long way to go this year to what I would call proper evaluation territory. I think they rally a little bit this week, then they get the beat down again going into the Mid Feb- March time. Then some shit will happen and the markets will rally and maybe even get to and make new highs before the bottom absolutely drops out and leaves people wondering WTF happened. Probably around August -early October time.

  13. #11073
    chase1
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    I'm sensing blood in the streets. Maybe after Monday I'll be buying some out of the money calls or even at the money if it continues down tomorrow which that's what it looks like. It might turn mid day will just have to watch it closely and see.

    Going to be a lot of companies reporting this week and you can go down a good way selling some puts to bring in some premiums.

    If your long, you might want to wait until it starts bouncing and then sell some covered calls on your stocks (unless they are too far away from your price) to bring in some premium and lower your cost basis. I've seen what's happening time and time again at worse times than this. Could it get worse? Sure. Not into predictions but we are oversold. I'm just a swing trader not a day trader that adjusts or tries to on a weekly basis.

  14. #11074
    trobin31
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    I like a short lived relief bounce early in the week before next leg down after Fed speak Wednesday. Get your popcorn ready. I donít think this is over until Mid Feb once the get enough of a dip for the trillions in cash to come off the sidelines, then we get a nice blow off top into summer

  15. #11075
    k13
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    Keep buying the dip...lol

  16. #11076
    k13
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    Quote Originally Posted by chase1 View Post
    I'm sensing blood in the streets. Maybe after Monday I'll be buying some out of the money calls or even at the money if it continues down tomorrow which that's what it looks like. It might turn mid day will just have to watch it closely and see.

    Going to be a lot of companies reporting this week and you can go down a good way selling some puts to bring in some premiums.

    If your long, you might want to wait until it starts bouncing and then sell some covered calls on your stocks (unless they are too far away from your price) to bring in some premium and lower your cost basis. I've seen what's happening time and time again at worse times than this. Could it get worse? Sure. Not into predictions but we are oversold. I'm just a swing trader not a day trader that adjusts or tries to on a weekly basis.
    Oversold...
    These tech stocks are still 10x too high.

  17. #11077
    Slurry Pumper
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    Quote Originally Posted by k13 View Post
    Oversold...
    These tech stocks are still 10x too high.
    Agree with the tech sentiment,

    Also the SPY is down in the range of my line in the sand mark for the week. I expect a battle at the 426.50 level or just above it. Don't want to call the low but it is at least a scalp trade here.

  18. #11078
    Madison
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    Gold/Slv/etc

    I'm getting old and duller by the day so please forgive me if someone already tried to help.

    I have a call with Gold Alliance/Equity Trust to transfer some funds from my Fidelity 401K to Equity Trust IRA with the intent to invest in commodities.

    Anyone have any opinions advice?

    Thanks

  19. #11079
    d2bets
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    Let's not forget that even after this selloff down 3% today already the market is still now up like 90% from the March 2020 lows and up over 30% from the pre-pandemic HIGHS. Some perspective on how much it's fallen, and perhaps on how much further it could still fall.

  20. #11080
    trobin31
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    You have to remember more money was printed this past 2 years than in The past decade, there is still tons of money to take from people...popping the bubble completely now makes no sense if the goal is to take everyone’s money

  21. #11081
    ex50warrior
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    I took Chase1's advice and sold a bunch of puts on stocks I'd be comfortable owning. Nice premium bump today.

  22. #11082
    EDDIE MONEY LINE
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    i'm getting crushed
    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
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  23. #11083
    teecee
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    Quote Originally Posted by EDDIE MONEY LINE View Post
    i'm getting crushed
    Getting hit here too. Down 16% the last couple weeks.
    175 pts

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  24. #11084
    ex50warrior
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    Wow, what an amazing swing today, a trader's dream! Sadly I'm not a trader.

  25. #11085
    Madison
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    Quote Originally Posted by EDDIE MONEY LINE View Post
    i'm getting crushed
    Me too!

  26. #11086
    Madison
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    Quote Originally Posted by Madison View Post
    Me too!
    I did however buy a small bit of my and hold offerings,

  27. #11087
    chase1
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    delete

  28. #11088
    chase1
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    Quote Originally Posted by ex50warrior View Post
    I took Chase1's advice and sold a bunch of puts on stocks I'd be comfortable owning. Nice premium bump today.
    Way to go man!

    That's exactly how you do it. Sell the puts on stocks you feel comfortable owning. Glad you got in on it mid day when it turned. Those premiums were real juicy I was able to sell some puts with huge premiums myself

  29. #11089
    trobin31
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    Looks like another 3-4 weeks until we hit the TD9/13 on high time frames

  30. #11090
    chase1
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    Quote Originally Posted by k13 View Post
    Oversold...
    These tech stocks are still 10x too high.
    Yes...we were way oversold. All the indicators were signaling it. Especially in the near term. The bounce came mid day pretty much like I thought it would. Were surely going to get some more volatility and this might not be the bottom by any means, but it sure looked like a wash out to me.
    10X too high? I think you're a little off there

  31. #11091
    chase1
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    Quote Originally Posted by k13 View Post
    Keep buying the dip...lol
    Great input to the discussion.

    Sell puts on the dip, further down than where the stock price is a bring in premium. Options is where it is at not buying stocks.

  32. #11092
    Madison
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    Quote Originally Posted by trobin31 View Post
    You have to remember more money was printed this past 2 years than in The past decade, there is still tons of money to take from people...popping the bubble completely now makes no sense if the goal is to take everyone’s money
    33

    agree to some point. But scares me??

  33. #11093
    Slurry Pumper
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    It was the kind of day that if I can get like 10 of these a year, that would be enough to buy my airplane jet along with the high quality skanks I like to get myself for Christmas and still have money left over to pay the ole lady alimony while not giving 2 shyts about it. Like I said my line in the sand for the week is $426.50 in the SPY, and today I took 4 bites at that apple with 2 of them paying well, 1 slight loser, and 1 rocket ride that I'm still on.

    Look at the chart, and things pretty much happen like I thought it would.
    1. We may get a gap down to start the day.
    2. Late Monday we would get a bounce, and in market terms maybe around noon isn't late but F it you take it when it comes.

    I effin killed it today. Now how long will this last, probably not too long, I'll be back tomorrow with some more killer insight and congratulations to the ones who caught at least some of this rally today. It really was a rip you a new one.

    Notice all my trades start around the $426.50 level and I get out when the trade starts to go south just a little bit.

  34. #11094
    alling
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    That was easy. Not only sold rest of my puts early but with all the fear bought calls that I sold at close. Enjoy that huge rally because next rally equities will be at a much lower level. Yea I'll be looking to start loading up on puts again tomorrow. Joe Biden is a short sellers God. Bless you sir.

  35. #11095
    trobin31
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    Very confused by people thinking presidents control equity prices, did you think this bubble that started under Obama and only got worse during Covid while trump was in was just gonna keep going to infinity...itís so ridiculous these comments. The Fed was gonna tighten, they did it under Trump and market got clobbered just like it now. Do you even understand how the markets work?

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