[trobin31]

I noticed how Magi-Lube has a thing on the advertising out today. They call it Phexxi (FECK-see). Tough call but Magi-Lube is better. Either way the word is getting out to bitches all across the land so we are less than 2 years away from a boost in stock prices with this one.

Maybe they will add flavors as well

[trobin31]

Okay...I have another penny banger for the cheap azzes here....well I guess that includes me as well lol


HLLPF, Hello-Pal, it’s OTC Canadian, social media app that allows not only correspondence but also unique translation features which separate it from the pack. It’s used in Europe, Canada, downloading and sales growing exponentially....and here is the kicker...they are acquiring blockchain mining companies...I like the Stonk !!!

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-rele...301242413.html

[rm18]

Okay...I have another penny banger for the cheap azzes here....well I guess that includes me as well lol


HLLPF, Hello-Pal, it’s OTC Canadian, social media app that allows not only correspondence but also unique translation features which separate it from the pack. It’s used in Europe, Canada, downloading and sales growing exponentially....and here is the kicker...they are acquiring blockchain mining companies...I like the Stonk !!!

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-rele...301242413.html

I bought this at .18 but only a few shares filled when it went to .21 I was like that is too much

[Goat Milk]

This is so tough because we don’t really have a broad macro case study.

I don’t have a degree in economics and in this rare circumstance I feel unfortunate to not be old as dirt to have experienced several significant market cycles for personal reference or comparison.

To compare this to the dot-com bubble, banking crises, post-Spanish influenza or over-leverage seems easy at first glance. But you perhaps would also have to intertwine the economics with post-war or reconstruction Fed policies that counter-balance market volatility. Then you also must factor in pervasiveness of retail money, access to information and global ownership of foreign treasuries. So, in the end, it’s literally impossible to predict any certain outcome from a situation which has never occurred.

If we were to discount all the background macro noise and just look at a technical analysis of market cycles...Tech is exhausted... All the FAANG stonks are exhausted since 6 months except Google. Tesla perhaps rang the bell at the final lap recently. But at mid -cycle we tend to see shelter being sought in consumer staples, healthcare & dividend/value like we see today.

Conversely, note the reversal in FAANG, especially AAPL AND FB which led the most recent bull market following the pandemic last spring. Throw in uncertainty of Europe and developing countries to get fully vaccinated or access to capital some of us enjoy.

So back to my initial point, we have a very poor case study to develop any specific thesis and must take into account all the factors at hand.

so what do we know? We know the economic data is improving a lot in the US and is all but certain to continue with recent stimulus but not globally. Other places are struggling badly, they don’t have stimulus, they don’t have effective vaccines.

The market is speculative and overheated in certain sectors. People want to point out Bitcoin, crypto and NFTs as the new Tulip mania or speculative bubble, but are they the same as transitioning from music Records, DVDs, CDs to digital downloads, cash and checks to credit ************ to Venmo & QR codes? Or despite this important transitional economy, just mirroring the future but still a bubble like Dotcom?

At the end of the day, I hate that term but it brings home a final point...the market has a tendency to allocate capital towards the greatest amount of Good.

what is good at this point in time? I think the answer is health & jobs. This will require a healthy population and a healthy market. Some would argue this is not a healthy market, but it is a market putting money into peoples pocket so they can spend. I believe this is the Feds focus and the focus of the largest stakeholders in the economy. I do not believe there is anything to gain from collapsing the tech sector imminently. Perhaps a slow bleed leading into the 2H of 2021 with a refocusing of allocating capital into beaten down sectors. By end of sunner, tech will have reached more reasonable valuations to the point rising rates will be already priced in.

This offers an opportunity to trade the reopening and allocate capital to tech with tremendous long term prospects. Disruptive tech with exponential growth ahead has always been and will always be the future unles we nuke ourselves into the Flintstone age.

I don’t believe Cathie Wood, Elon Musk or Alex Karp will fail. I think believe they have purpose and meaning in their lives that will lead the US & foreign investors & economy into the the next decade. We need forward thinkers like them...remember...the market puts money where it sees the greatest amount of good!!!

You may convince yourselves the Flintstone economy is viable but it’s not. So all this to say...trade the re-opening...dollar cost average into the disruption. Fear uncertainty and doubt are the only things preventing you from profiting on the future.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/27/roar...-wish-for.html

https://www.globaltrademag.com/the-s...demic-of-1919/

Bitcoin isn't like ccs or streaming services. It's way too complex to buy bitcoin. You have to go into binance, you have to buy a security measure to ensure your account doesn't get hacked, you need 2 step verification, you need to write your password down on a paper and protect it.

You sign up for a credit card and then you swipe it in the store. You don't worry about any security. The company monitors that. That's why bitcoin will never be the face of money. There are far too many hacks, you can wake up one morning and your account balance is at 0 and binance will do nothing about it. It happened to me with ripple.

Until bitcoin creates their own credit card, and builds their own actually centralized company, which would defeat the purpose of all this anonymity I guess, it will never become the major payment in anything, at any time.

[Goat Milk]

Not to mention that bitcoin fluctuations drastically. No dollar amount that fluctuates can ever be a payment in anything significant. You majored in economics so you already know this.

All bitcoin is, is an investment. It will never be taken seriously. People that say they accept bitcoin are going to drop out of that race soon enough when they realize that they just got a 50k payment in bitcoin that is now worth 47k hours later. It won't last.

[trobin31]

Not to mention that bitcoin fluctuations drastically. No dollar amount that fluctuates can ever be a payment in anything significant. You majored in economics so you already know this.

All bitcoin is, is an investment. It will never be taken seriously. People that say they accept bitcoin are going to drop out of that race soon enough when they realize that they just got a 50k payment in bitcoin that is now worth 47k hours later. It won't last.

Lol...I love that this is the pervasive mindset otherwise I wouldn’t be able to buy more below 6 figures. Screenshot this and holla at us in 2024

[Slurry Pumper]

So just as I thought the market slept walked through the day until the Fed came out and said some shyt. Then a rally to all time highs so far.

[Snowball]

By the time Fed Announcement was on, I flipped into all bullish positions.

Whether that pays off or not is TBD.

If the S&P isn't 4k by Friday, I'm not going to be bullish anymore.

So let them show me the money now. Big Talk. If this market sells off after all this
I would be disappointed and worried about how bad it could get.

Hopefully that doesn't happen.

[trobin31]

Why would market sell off after ensuring fixed yields won’t be rising? That’s the most counter intuitive thing I can think of...let me go park my billions of dollars in assets that I am guaranteed to get less over the next year? That’s ludicrous. Just put on your matador costume and buy the fukin dips

[Slurry Pumper]

Ok so its been a topic for a little while now and I am on the record of being in the bearish camp when it comes to the NASDAQ. That is what I think, but let me toss up some charts today and re-evaluate and see what I think today.



This is a chart of a 3 month time frame with daily candle closes. The 3 candles circled indicate a break down candle and as the theory goes, until or unless the price gets above the top of that 3 candle breakdown, it will be a shorting situation. I also said that if the price just moves right up and over that breakdown candle high, I would take that as a bearish sign and I would have expected the price to get rejected at the next resistance zone of about $330 on the QQQ chart. I switched over from the COMP chart because its the same shyt anyways and this chart has volume to look at. Anyway, the price has been hanging around the breakdown candle high / moving average convergence for a few days now and that tells me that the market is gaining energy to bust through that price level in a move up to the next resistance level and eventually maybe even the 340 holy grail of the highest point ever.

With the SPY hanging out just below an Oprahly fat round number of $400, I gotta believe that the SPY will be pulled up to the big number based on the 400 number being almost a magnet drawing the price to it. After the stimulus windfall and the FED coming out with the usual "we got this don't worry about it" routine, and the belief that for the next couple of time periods any divergences have been resolved, leads me to believe that the NASDAQ will get above the recent breakdown candle high and move towards the 330 level at the very least. I'm not in the total bull camp just yet so let me switch to a longer time period chart.



Here is a look at a 2 year time frame with weekly candle closes. You'll always see me talking about a 20 period moving average and refer to it as almost magnetic as well (It's always the Orange line on the chart, the yellow is the 9 period). I've noticed over the years of just staring at this stuff, that a price on any chart doesn't stray away from a 20 period moving average for very long, and the further away the price gets away, the more likely the price will end up working its way back to the 20 period moving average or the price will stall and let the 20 period moving average catch up to the spot the price is at. So looking at this chart, I circled all the times in the last 2 years the price of the QQQ has been below the 20 period moving average. Basically a total of 9 weeks over the last 2 years with 7 of those weeks coming last year, although I forget what happened to cause such an event during the spring of last year. You can see the price recently moved down to the 20 Week Moving Average but it hasn't closed out a week below it just yet. Now to an even longer time frame chart.



So now I've expanded it out to a 10 year time period with monthly candle closes. You can see that since the cervesa sickness hit, the NASDAQ has been on a rocket ride and at this point, the price is really quite far away from the 20 period moving average. So I still think it is difficult for the price to continue to move much higher before a pause to let the 20 period average move up closer to the price. Not saying the the DAQ wont keep moving higher, but just noting that the price is pretty far away from the magnetic line. Right now this average equates to 10250 on the COMP chart, and that's a pretty big pull back to eat and still remain in the uptrend if things fall apart tomorrow. As you can see history shows that it is rare for the NASDAQ to be under the moving average and this average is moving up around 250 points every month. So in a couple of weeks when the candle for the month is finalized the moving average will be around 10500.

So given the smaller time frame charts not dipping below the 20 period average that often and the monthly chart having such a huge distance between the price and the 20 period moving average, the most likely scenario is that the market takes a pause and waits for the moving average to come up to the price of the index. That is what the charts are telling me. I may still think there will be a pullback at the very least and more likely a shyt dump while in the public handicap bathroom stall so you can use the hand rails to steady yourself from the thrust, but it is unlikely to be a killer downturn when you look at the charts. I can see all of the bullish sentiment by looking at history.

[trobin31]

If FB, AMZN breakout it’s a clear sign tech bears are fuked

[trobin31]

They are still playing chicken with Jpow to force unlimited QE

Yesterday JPOW told you he wants inflation, new buy for me is COM, a very broad commodities index, if inflation runs hot this will too

[Slurry Pumper]

The QQQ is getting rejected right at the breakdown candle high this morning and it was sent packing all the way down to the 20 DMA. Its magnetic like I said. Anyway, lets see if it can hold for the weekend. No bull run until the daily close gets above 324.40.

[Snowball]

back on the short tech thing.

market has to make up its mind about the next 5% move or ppl will lose interest.

weakness in crude oil and gold doesn't speak much for inflation.

bond selloff this AM stronger than anticipated given Fed talk.

So perhaps the Fed is quietly going to allow an equities correction.

[DISTROYA]

At this point I give up...got in heavy a month ago on mostly Nasdaq funds/etf's and stock, gonna be a really bad year it seems. These rates are relentless, nothing can stop from going over 2%, going to be in the red and stuck for a while its just too bad got in at wrong time. Im so fcuked.

[ex50warrior]

Whip-sawing, guess it's a good opportunity for the traders.

[DISTROYA]

Problem is, keep buying on dips still going down...and down...and down. im done buying. If Nasdaq hits 11000 then I will come back. This thing doesnt seem like its over.

[homie1975]

At this point I give up...got in heavy a month ago on mostly Nasdaq funds/etf's and stock, gonna be a really bad year it seems. These rates are relentless, nothing can stop from going over 2%, going to be in the red and stuck for a while its just too bad got in at wrong time. Im so fcuked.

i NEVER go in both feet first into any position. i put about 30% in that i am willing to put into the stock and if it goes down 15-20% i consider adding shares, rinse and repeat a few more times. dollar cost averaging. tried and true method IMO

[ex50warrior]

Slurry, can you give us your colorful description of an "outside day" technical reversal signal?

[Slurry Pumper]

Slurry, can you give us your colorful description of an "outside day" technical reversal signal?

Ok, so a "Outside Day" for all of yous is a 2 period chart phenomenon where the 2nd candle has a high and a low that is both higher and lower than the previous period.



Yesterday the IWM put in a "Bearish Outside Reversal" pattern which can signal a trend change. This isn't the best example but if you look at the green candle with the green arrow, you can see that the candle wicks in both directions is not as large as the candle next to it with the red arrow.

Great so now what you ask? Well that is just one piece of the puzzle, so now you need to go down to the middle chart that shows the volume. The two candle sticks in the middle chart on the right hand side show that 2 days ago the volume was right at about the average for the 50 DMA, and yesterday's candle came in with more shares traded. Usually to be concerned with a trend change, you would like to see a big difference in volume for the 2 days. This would be another piece in the puzzle.

So to put it all together, a "Outside Day" can signal a trend change and the more dramatic the difference between the candle sticks in both volume and price will indicate just how much of a trend change there is.

In this case, the IWM technically had a "Bearish Outside Reversal", but the difference between candles isn't that great and may not indicate a trend change. The price moved down to the 20DMA and closed above it. The stochastic indicators ( the 2 lines at the bottom of the screen) are showing and overbought condition and have "rolled over" with an increasing gap developing which is another piece to the puzzle in the bearish camp. The bulls do have the MACD rising, but so far it is 3 to 2 for the bears. So we really can't make much out of it just looking at the daily here. We have to move to a different chart to get another story line. I don't have time this morning to put it up, but the weekly chart of the IWM shows that this week is an "Inside trading" week (well technically not but for the most part it is). If the weekly chart candle were to continue down today and close below 9WMA which is 221.06 and get lower that last week's candle low, that might signal a trend change as well. The weekly chart has been above the 9WMA for a while which means the trend is your friend until your friend is getting blown behind the refrigerator by the trend all while you sit there on the couch watching the Final Four. You have to watch that trend she will go to whatever thing is happening now and looks like fun.

I think yesterday was a little bit of that Quad witching thing going on. Today I expect another repair job in all of the markets after an early morning shakeout courtesy of the trick, trap, fool, and fuk you squad. They will try to make it look as though the market is going to tank big time, only to turn on a dime and float back up to where? Well on the SPY 394 is still a good spot. For the QQQ we'll go for 316.

[homie1975]

if my technical support line on the NQ the last 6 mos is correct, we have support at ~13,000 before the next move up. that is only 125 points down from where we are as I type..........

[trobin31]

I am swinging $SLB $XOM calls this week....These are way oversold and flow is still there....until proven otherwise I’m going to keep swinging Energy & Financials...I’ll wait and see how this week plays out but both Energy & Financials look like they are in a similar secular uptrend that cld last 1H 2021. If it ain’t broke...

[trobin31]

If $BNGO or $GRWG drop after earnings pound the dodo out of em

[Iona]

[Snowball]

There is likely to be a lot of WHIPSAW action this week
as Fed Talk again dominates. Yield Pressure, Calls for More Fed Intervention

Leaning toward margin-based day trading over options positions.
Option positions too volatile for overnight risk, although Straddles would work
as the volatility is likely to happen at least one direction, maybe both.

[trobin31]

Looking over several of my positions last night...

I like Selecta Bio; SELB <4.6 & LiveXLive; LIVX <5 for a several months swing and possible 1–2x moves

Selecta has a beautiful nano particle platform to reduce adverse immune responses that occur with some drugs, mostly drugs like Methotrexate or Uricases for Autoimmune conditions. Their recent earnings call was good and guidance revenue increase 130% yoy, their chief medical officer just added more shares and hedge funds pounded it last qtr as well.

LiveXLive; many performing artist are starting to use this platform to perform live shows in Leiu of concerts and are discussing selling NFTs through the platform.

[Slurry Pumper]

OK I've been watching the markets for the week and I'd like to show you all a couple of things that are all adding up to a pretty big stack of chips for the Don't side for all of you Craps players. There's a shit load of charts so let start with the overall QQQ for a look.



So looking at the QQQ 6 month chart with weekly time frames, if I take the week where the all time high was put in and kind of merge it with the next 2 weeks, it makes a pretty big break down 3 week candle, and from there the chart is showing a bearish flag type of pattern. It is typical behavior for the chart pattern to try and run a test of a break down candle high, which it did last week. As you can see it got rejected and now the price is hanging out at the 20 Week Moving Average which happens to be right around the break down candle low. The QQQ will need to stay above this area for Friday's close or there will be deeper selling to come. As it looks now given the 80 - 20 rule, things look like they are setting up for lower prices in the coming weeks.



Now take a look at my favorite market indicator in the IWM (Small / Mid Caps) with the 1 Month chart with Daily candles, and you can see this market took a pretty big curb stomping today after being able to keep the 20 Day moving average at yesterday's close. Today it opened up below the 20 DMA and blew right thru the 50 DMA (yellow arrow).



Looking at the 6 Month Chart with weekly candles in the IWM, and you can see that it has been riding the 9 week moving average reverse cowgirl style like a 20 year pro from a stag range in Nevada. As a result the market has been way oversold for quite a while (yellow circled stochastic indicator). The last 2 weeks however the IWM is making a move down and it still has a way to go to get the the 20 WMA.
Today it closed on pretty stout support but I can't claim that the overall movement down will be over in the next couple of weeks. In the next few days, I do see a repair operation moving in and they will try to put up a fight to fight back up to the 50 DMA at the very least.

The overall look is pretty bleak however.



Moving along to the 3 Month chart of the XLF with daily candle sticks, another good indicator that I use. Without the financial stocks the overall market doesn't move that much in either direction. After making an intraday high on Thursday, the price immediately turned around and just like a Mandingo film festival it has done nothing but make large gaps down every morning with the price falling through to close even lower. It totally looks like it is going to run a test of the 50 DMA and support area of around the 32 dollar range.



Looking at the 6 Month Weekly chart of the XLF. There is some pretty good support at what level. Say it with me, the 20 Week Moving Average. This is an area of a former break out area, so it wouldn't be out of character for the price to come back and run a test of this area. Also I didn't circle it but it has been oversold for quite a while now also.



Now onto the 1 Month chart of the SPY with daily candle closes. They came back to test the 20DMA for the second time in 3 days so each time a test is run, that means the next time is less meaningful and a higher likelihood that the support will not hold.




As you can see from the 10 Day chart with 2 hour candle sticks , it was a big breakdown candle for the last couple of hours before bouncing up to close the day. Typically when the market puts in a big breakdown candle, a repair operation gets underway and it makes an attempt to recapture the high. So I expect under the 80 -20 rule the SPY will be making an attempt to get back above the 393 price I placed on the chart. before closing out the week.

t

Now for the SPY 6 month chart with weekly closes, it has a way to go to get down to the , say it with me, 20 Week Moving Averge. If it gets down below that, there is support at around 370, but it looks as though suddenly from all the charts shown here, things are stacking up for a sizable downward move. In the near future of the rest of the week, I think a repair operation will get under way, but be ready for the exit door because things are stacking up for a rip your hair out drop in the overall market. Things can look pretty ugly pretty quick and things can fall for a sizable enough drop so that regular people will take notice.

[trobin31]

$PLBY lottery mode

[ex50warrior]

Appreciate the technical lessons Slurry, slowly but surely a little of it is actually sinking in! Good stuff.

[Slurry Pumper]

So yesterday, the IWM went into repair mode and climbed all the way up to the 50DMA before taking a dump and continuing the sell off. Totally expected and predicted this action. Then the SPY also made an attempt to climb up the break down candle from Tuesday that was tossed up on the board going into the close. If you look at my post from a couple of days ago, I put 393 on the chart, and sure as shyt the SPY made the attempt to get there yesterday putting up 392.75 on the board before also taking a dump and closing lower.
How about the Nasdaq you ask. Well it put in a gap up only to fall apart and finish lower than the previous day below the magical 20DMA and right on support of around 310.
How about the financials? Well XLF started with a gap up and climbed to the 20 DMA also as a test, then got the pound sand indicator before falling down. The financials actually finished up on the day, but big deal the trend is definitely to the downside.

So what's on tap for today? Who the hell knows, I suspect we will probably fall apart early then have a repair operation in a broad based move for all markets with practically no where to hide. I expect the repair operation to start when Biden starts to talk today at 1. It is counter intuitive but Biden has been practicing for the last week and should be able to stumble his way through a couple of softball questions from some friendly media types. If he trips over the power cord for the microphone and does a face plant into the first row of reporters however, it could spark a big selloff of giant an epic proportions.

[Slurry Pumper]

Evofem today is offering more stock at a $1.75 so the stock took a plunge. EVFM (EVOFEM), makers of Phexxi birth control or better know as Magi - Lube comes in both Aqua Advantage Salmon and Cherry flavors.

I take this offering as a discount and will be loading up another 500 shares in anticipation of a new advertisement campaign to come out soon. I hope they add Banana and Strawberry to the list of flavors.

Trobin -- How do you feel about this move from Magi-Lube?

[Poker_Beast]

Magi Lube has been brutal to me and the new offering only made it worse. I may follow Slurry here and get another 500 hoping to offset my losses when it takes off.

Anyone heard anything on ILUS? Been a rough week on that one.

[DISTROYA]

It seems (evfm) like they are doing this quite a bit every time the stock moves a little up the company runs out of cash needs to sell additional stock offerings hammering the price down not exactly a confidence builder right?
GMBL great swing stock. Buy 15...sell 17 to 18...rinse...repeat. And perfect for us degenerates Can't be a more fitting name/stock

[Slurry Pumper]

Yeah, I actually tossed in for 1000 shares more today and I'm not going to look at this until just before they report again. They should be ramping up sales by then. I'll also be looking at all the "somebody got killed by their spouse again shows" the 'ole lady watches to see if they have some commercials. That and Maury of course. In fact Maury is the perfect show to be sponsored by Magi Lube. Damn they should just hire me for Christ sake. I have the experience of knowing the skank market and can get the bitches in front the doctors.
Did I mention Bubble Gum flavor for the pre 18 crowd will help with planned parenthood.

[trobin31]

I am waiting for dollar to top out, I think around $94 sometime next week.


evfm needs to be one of those set it and forget stonks....it’s interesting the director bought shares knowing the offering was coming..that’s bullish AF...just know what you own and don’t trip when the price goes up or down


only thing I’ve been buying is PLTR@21, if it goes below $20 I am loading more...in a market like this you have to pick your high convictions and pound.

I did have one new entry in crypto...polka dot, which got oversold due to external factors unrelated to its fundamentals....

I raised lots of cash and just waiting for bears to do their last dance after the dollar folds