1. #1
    Hman
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    NOT Hedging: Has It Helped Or Hurt You?

    Some guys like to let wagers ride while others choose to hedge when there's a guaranteed profit.

    Unfortunately for myself, years ago when I used to parlay a ton of games on the side mainly for fun, I've lost two 10-team parlays that went down to the final game.

    One of those was real cash, while the other was free play.

    Choosing not to hedge those last games cost me a few thousand.

    Those obviously stick out more than the times I might not have hedged & still won.

    How have you fared over time by NOT hedging?

  2. #2
    Sam Odom
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    Don't be afraid to win

  3. #3
    Hman
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sam Odom View Post
    Don't be afraid to win


    True

    Some clam it evens out.

    Not in my case.

    Curious to hear if others think they're up or down choosing not to hedge.

  4. #4
    lonegambler23
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    my philosophy is if you think of hedging out of most your bets then gambling isnt for you. always let it ride it out. only thing to hedge is in big parlays for the payout.

  5. #5
    jjgold
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    If your a pro and do it for a living you have to hedge just like stock traders

    Anyone else NO

  6. #6
    Sam Losco
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    i always let it ride. i dont gamble enough to warrant hedging

  7. #7
    Hman
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    If your a pro and do it for a living you have to hedge just like stock traders

    Anyone else NO


    Yes I think the amount at stake matters a lot.

  8. #8
    jjgold
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    I never hedge

    Small timer

  9. #9
    Hman
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    I never hedge

    Small timer


    You don't have to hedge because you win 'em all

  10. #10
    Bsims
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    I've done it when I'm looking at a large parlay payoff. The results are mixed. I really hate to do it, but do so anyway. Long term, it's probably a bad idea. It does lower variability but increases the juice you pay.

  11. #11
    jbayko
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    Hedging is illogical unless you have received new information since placing the bet which makes you change your calculus on the win probability of one or more games.

    Hear me out:

    1. Based on the schedule of games when you placed that 10-game parlay, you knew in advance that - if you had any chance of winning - you would eventually be at the point where you were 9-0 and needing that last 1 game to win.

    2. if you hedge, you are doubling the juice you pay on that last game.

    3. Therefore, if you were going to chicken out at the 9-0 mark, then you might as well have just placed a 9-game parlay instead and not pay that extra juice.

    Again, you KNEW that you would need to be 9-0 with 1 game left BEFORE you placed the bet. Absent new information, if you hedge, you are essentially admitting that you made a poor decision when you included that 10th game in the parlay. Either that, or you're making a poor decision now with the hedge. One of those MUST be true, so either way it's a mistake.
    Last edited by jbayko; 03-06-18 at 07:19 PM.

  12. #12
    HurryUpAndDrink
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    jbayko, solid assessment

  13. #13
    Sam Odom
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    Quote Originally Posted by jbayko View Post
    3. Therefore, if you were going to chicken out at the 9-0 mark, then you might as well have just placed a 9-game parlay instead and not pay that extra juice.

    Again, you KNEW that you would need to be 9-0 with 1 game left BEFORE you placed the bet. Absent new information, if you hedge, you are essentially admitting that you made a poor decision when you included that 10th game.


    in this scenario ^ 10 leg parlay

    99.5% of the posters here would NOT have the cash to do a legit hedge on game 10

  14. #14
    jbayko
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sam Odom View Post
    in this scenario ^ 10 leg parlay

    99.5% of the posters here would NOT have the cash to do a legit hedge on game 10
    Maybe, maybe not. But I was merely following along with OP's example. My logic still applies to hedging parlays of 2 games, 3 games, 4 games, etc. so your point is kind of a red herring.
    Last edited by jbayko; 03-06-18 at 05:43 PM.

  15. #15
    Sam Odom
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    Quote Originally Posted by jbayko View Post

    Maybe, maybe not.

    understand... you did a very nice breakdown

  16. #16
    jjgold
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    If you’re not a big player you’re a jerk off if you hedge

  17. #17
    darrell74
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    Just got back from betting horses, today.
    I hedged a favorite on the last leg of a pick 3 that paid 5/2.

    So my answer is YES

  18. #18
    Marco30
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    let it ride always and take it like a man.......

  19. #19
    Bonar--->
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    Hedge no.

  20. #20
    Booya711
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    It depends on your Cash flow positive bookie
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  21. #21
    beefcake
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    I bet 1.00 on Leceister City at 5000-1..I hedged 500.00 on Tottenham at 8-1 with 4 games to go...Hell yes It was worth it...

  22. #22
    Josy
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    Hedge OR Not hedge?
    It depends on that you are a gambler or investor.
    If you are gambling - let it ride.
    If you are investing - you follow the most important rule you should have. And it's - PROTECT your bank at any cost. Than the answer - hedge.

  23. #23
    Gaze73
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    Depends on how much the win affects your bankroll and how big it is. If the win is more than 15% of your BR you should hedge.

  24. #24
    rkelly110
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    Someone explain to me how you would/ could hedge a 10 team parlay other than making a strong single bet that covers
    your 10 team bet or did I answer my own question?

  25. #25
    JayLA
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sam Losco View Post
    i always let it ride. i dont gamble enough to warrant hedging
    exactly....you should only hedge if you make monster bets. small timers should just let it ride

  26. #26
    lonegambler23
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    always hedge out of your last leg of a parlay.. cant tell you how many ive lost by the last game
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  27. #27
    lonegambler23
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    reguarding normal straight wagers. always let it ride out or else you shouldnt be gambling at all if youre looking to get off your bet. have a friend who does that when his wagers losing. really no point

  28. #28
    Slipknot26
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    Yes you hedge to ensure a profit off your investment.
    Smaller , maybe let it ride . Larger return on investment , you would be crazy not to ensure a profit no matter what .
    If you didn't , not exactly sure you're looking at gambling correctly . This is no different than purchasing stock
    Ensure a Return on Investment

  29. #29
    Bsims
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    While I'm conflicted on hedging, let me give an example of where it's may be a good idea on a single MLB game from yesterday. Heritage opened CWS +118 and KC -127. Let's say you like CWS and lay $1000 to win $1180. Later Heritage moved the line to CWS +126 and KC -136. Here the public and books disagree somewhat on your pick and you could have gotten a better deal by waiting to place the CWS wager. Assuming you still like the CWS pick, you can hedge a bit by taking KC for $500, wagering $680 to win $500. This has decreased your net wager on CWS to $320 to win $680. Now you have not only lowered your risk to $320 but changed the odds to the CWS wager to +212. Seems like a good move.

    OK, it is Sunday morning and I'm a bit fuzzy. Where is my math wrong?

  30. #30
    jjgold
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    In the long run it’s probably even out either way

  31. #31
    fourlokobro
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    On single games, I have a degen tendency to hedge with live betting on NBA and MLB whenever I take the dog before gametime and get the chance to buy the favorite back at huge discount...

    Ex) 4/14/18... Bet Braves ML +160 against Cubs and Over 6.5.... Cubs down 10-2 after 4 innings... Line has moved from Cubs -1.5 to Cubs +7.5 RL at -115...Over already hit, Braves look like easy winner, buy the cubs +7.5... Cubs comeback and win 14-10... Thus hedging "mistake" created the payout scenarios below

    Without In-game Hedge
    Braves win by 7.5 or more = +2.6u
    Braves win by less than 7.5 = +2.6u
    Cubs win = +1u

    With In-game Hedge
    Braves win by 7.5 or more = +1.5u
    Braves win by less than 7.5 = +3.6u
    Cubs Win = +1u

    So basically I moved my risk to Cubs covering the 7.5 complete game to pay 3.6u by selling some of my percieved earnings that I already have on ATL at such a great price before first pitch. That is a middle I feel awesome about.... Granted Cubs came back and won the whole thing so it was all a wash (great game to track on SBR Forum no doubt) but these sort of opportunities to increase my winnings without any additional net risk of capital on a single game are always my biggest temptation to hedge.

    TLDR... Bet the favorite live if you're riding a live dog already and prices shift

    Is this a sound strategy or am I overthinking the live action and costing myself potential units??

  32. #32
    u21c3f6
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bsims View Post
    While I'm conflicted on hedging, let me give an example of where it's may be a good idea on a single MLB game from yesterday. Heritage opened CWS +118 and KC -127. Let's say you like CWS and lay $1000 to win $1180. Later Heritage moved the line to CWS +126 and KC -136. Here the public and books disagree somewhat on your pick and you could have gotten a better deal by waiting to place the CWS wager. Assuming you still like the CWS pick, you can hedge a bit by taking KC for $500, wagering $680 to win $500. This has decreased your net wager on CWS to $320 to win $680. Now you have not only lowered your risk to $320 but changed the odds to the CWS wager to +212. Seems like a good move.

    OK, it is Sunday morning and I'm a bit fuzzy. Where is my math wrong?
    Your hedge is now $500 ($1000-500) to win $500 ($1180-680)

    Joe.

  33. #33
    Bsims
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    Quote Originally Posted by u21c3f6 View Post
    Your hedge is now $500 ($1000-500) to win $500 ($1180-680)
    Joe.
    Thanks Joe, that's why I needed another eye on my morning fuzzy math. It seems intuitively to me that the only potential hedge is if the line moves with you, not against you as in my example. But in that case, you would just be lowering your risk and weakening the odds you got initially. So I was completely wrong. (My friends really love it when I utter those words.)

  34. #34
    A4K
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    I only hedge when I have a legitimate crack at a nice middle. Had a 5 run baseball middle on Mets @ Braves last week and hit. Had u8.5 and over 3.5 on LIVE BET. Cha ching!

  35. #35
    High3rEl3m3nt
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    bound to remember only the times that it has not worked out...a gambler's memory is twisted

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