1. 02-13-18 06:42 AM #71
    arie1985
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    Quote Originally Posted by arie1985 View Post
    Race 3 in South Africa has lots of underdogs, some are offered 101.00 in Bet365. The question is if it's possible to close a deal on them in 9Wickets for a reasonable price.


    Autumn Annie is my pick to lay.
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  2. 02-13-18 06:43 AM #72
    arie1985
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    The race had a delay because of the horse Modus Dancer who eventually scrapped the race and won't participate.



    It's now about to start.
    Good luck!
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  3. 02-13-18 06:46 AM #73
    arie1985
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    Quote Originally Posted by Foxx View Post
    Good luck today. Maybe I'll recommend a lay horse or 2 from Southwell later.
    Sure, feel free.
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  4. 02-13-18 07:12 AM #74
    arie1985
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  5. 02-13-18 07:13 AM #75
    littlekona
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    Quote Originally Posted by arie1985 View Post
    Sure, feel free.
    Arie...Please stop blindly laying these huge longshots....focus more on low priced ML favs that are drifters...you can get many at under 5.0 odds....Another thing I do is parlay on lays I try to hit 4 in a row then start back at my base price...Again I'm looking at lower priced under 5.0 odds...try it
    Here is something that may help too Free international track PP's link look at that please...
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/cc_tr...gi?repcode=osa
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  6. 02-13-18 07:15 AM #76
    arie1985
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    Quote Originally Posted by littlekona View Post
    Arie...Please stop blindly laying these huge longshots....focus more on low priced ML favs that are drifters...you can get any at under 5.0 odds....
    Here is something that may help too Free international track PP's link look at that please...
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/cc_tr...gi?repcode=osa
    When I'm trying to click on this link it says "Access Denied" - do you know why?
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  7. 02-13-18 07:22 AM #77
    littlekona
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    Quote Originally Posted by arie1985 View Post
    When I'm trying to click on this link it says "Access Denied" - do you know why?
    not sure it works for me ...are you in usa? try google "brisnet free international past performances" ..it should be top search entry

    try this
    https://www.brisnet.com/product/past-performances/OSA
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  8. 02-13-18 07:29 AM #78
    arie1985
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    Quote Originally Posted by littlekona View Post
    not sure it works for me ...are you in usa? try google "brisnet free international past performances" ..it should be top search entry

    try this
    https://www.brisnet.com/product/past-performances/OSA
    Still doesn't work for me ... can you give me the gist of it please, what's the info in this page? What is in there?
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  9. 02-13-18 07:44 AM #79
    littlekona
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    Quote Originally Posted by arie1985 View Post
    Still doesn't work for me ... can you give me the gist of it please, what's the info in this page? What is in there?
    it has free pp's for all UK IRE S.Africa UAE races....vpn from usa and it will work
    here is another link u should always use has every odds
    https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing
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  10. 02-13-18 07:53 AM #80
    Foxx
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    I do like the favorite #3 Shenanigans to take the 6th race at Vaal.
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  11. 02-13-18 08:19 AM #81
    arie1985
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    I'm not with my PC now. Bet placed through mobile against Monzino in the 1st swell race. To win 20.
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  12. 02-13-18 09:41 AM #82
    littlekona
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    Quote Originally Posted by arie1985 View Post
    The race had a delay because of the horse Modus Dancer who eventually scrapped the race and won't participate.



    It's now about to start.
    Good luck!
    wow 3700 Euro to win 9....i have no words I can say im speechless esp after what happened yesterday....
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  13. 02-13-18 09:52 AM #83
    Easy-Rider 66
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    Quote Originally Posted by littlekona View Post
    wow 3700 Euro to win 9....i have no words I can say im speechless esp after what happened yesterday....
    Unreal
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  14. 02-13-18 09:58 AM #84
    Foxx
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    Quote Originally Posted by littlekona View Post
    wow 3700 Euro to win 9....i have no words I can say im speechless esp after what happened yesterday....
    I would've been ok with 250/1 or less. 400 was a bit high. Anyone see what the starting price was?
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  15. 02-13-18 10:00 AM #85
    jjgold
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    forget laying horses

    Disaster
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  16. 02-13-18 10:05 AM #86
    littlekona
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    Quote Originally Posted by Foxx View Post
    I would've been ok with 250/1 or less. 400 was a bit high. Anyone see what the starting price was?
    Foxx...tell him please how bad a wagering strategy that is...maybe he listens to you...There are so many horses that are under 10-1 that have slim slim chance that u can lay as long as u do a little study...I love laying but come on now,,,be smart
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  17. 02-13-18 10:36 AM #87
    arie1985
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    Quote Originally Posted by arie1985 View Post
    I'm not with my PC now. Bet placed through mobile against Monzino in the 1st swell race. To win 20.
    Here is the screenshot I took from my mobile, I haven't placed any bets so far, the races in Southwell were too short and I hate betting on short races.

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  18. 02-13-18 10:37 AM #88
    arie1985
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    Quote Originally Posted by littlekona View Post
    wow 3700 Euro to win 9....i have no words I can say im speechless esp after what happened yesterday....
    Yesterday was nowhere near these odds...
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  19. 02-13-18 10:41 AM #89
    jjgold
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    The value is backing long shots or laying big chalk

    ALTHOUGH LOVE THE THREAD AND GOOD LUCK
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  20. 02-13-18 10:46 AM #90
    arie1985
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    The value is backing long shots or laying big chalk

    ALTHOUGH LOVE THE THREAD AND GOOD LUCK
    Thanks!
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  21. 02-13-18 10:50 AM #91
    arie1985
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    Quote Originally Posted by Foxx View Post
    I would've been ok with 250/1 or less. 400 was a bit high. Anyone see what the starting price was?
    There were people in BetFair & 9Wickets laying this one for 200 and it wasn't enough to seal the deal, I tried 150, 200, 250, 300 but nothing worked ... and I'm talking about 2-3 minutes before the race, where the odds are pretty accurate.

    I also made sure this is not a novice horse that the bookies have less info on...

    I'm trying to make it a long term ... if I'd want to double the money I'd simply bet the 4k in the NBA and not in horse racing and then I should have much better chances doubling my money.

    But I'm trying to take the gambling aspect out of it and turn it into a sort of investment ... but I'm happy to hear your opinions -
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  22. 02-13-18 10:54 AM #92
    littlekona
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    The value is backing long shots or laying big chalk

    ALTHOUGH LOVE THE THREAD AND GOOD LUCK
    I think there is value in backing some "chalks" esp at USA tracks where odds on favorites shorten late and at smaller tracks go from 1-1 to 2/5 late....Fixed odds is a "science" kinda ...But I agree with JJ laying chalk esp ones that are luke warm is the way to go long run
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  23. 02-13-18 10:59 AM #93
    littlekona
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    Quote Originally Posted by arie1985 View Post
    There were people in BetFair & 9Wickets laying this one for 200 and it wasn't enough to seal the deal, I tried 150, 200, 250, 300 but nothing worked ... and I'm talking about 2-3 minutes before the race, where the odds are pretty accurate.

    I also made sure this is not a novice horse that the bookies have less info on...

    I'm trying to make it a long term ... if I'd want to double the money I'd simply bet the 4k in the NBA and not in horse racing and then I should have much better chances doubling my money.

    But I'm trying to take the gambling aspect out of it and turn it into a sort of investment ... but I'm happy to hear your opinions -
    I would try my method of where I take a base say 50 Euro and lay a horse under 5.0 that is a drifter and in a field where there are at least 4 others under 10-1 or so....if that wins I parlay and repeat 3 times...Once I win 4 total I start back at my 50 Euro base...repeat ...I look for horses that say are favorites in ML but cold on board....give it a whirl

    or another good stratgies is lay the horse that the commentator on TV likes as his win rate is horrible LOL
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  24. 02-13-18 11:09 AM #94
    jjgold
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    are the pools the same for wickets and betfair?
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  25. 02-13-18 12:09 PM #95
    littlekona
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    are the pools the same for wickets and betfair?
    they are the same.....for horses its very good But sports and live side is weak with stuff like NBA only moneylines ect....There are many pros/market makers that have scripts that tie horse wagers in all the site i think like betfair and esp matchbook and fairlay as I see lines on fairlay move at same time and odds as matchbook...these are the guys making the money! they lay bet lay bet to insure profits total surebets
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  26. 02-13-18 12:37 PM #96
    arie1985
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    Not sure why it shows a $ sign, the account is in EUR.
    This US race added 25 EUR approx.
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  27. 02-13-18 12:41 PM #97
    arie1985
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    Quote Originally Posted by arie1985 View Post


    Not sure why it shows a $ sign, the account is in EUR.
    This US race added 25 EUR approx.
    I think the $ symbol is there because it's a US Race... I think.
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  28. 02-13-18 01:14 PM #98
    Foxx
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    Quote Originally Posted by littlekona View Post
    Foxx...tell him please how bad a wagering strategy that is...maybe he listens to you...There are so many horses that are under 10-1 that have slim slim chance that u can lay as long as u do a little study...I love laying but come on now,,,be smart
    Honestly, it's not the worst strategy. I'll lay horses across the odds spectrum up to 300/1. Obviously, it comes down to selections and price though. I'm going to take a closer look at some of these races later and maybe have some more concrete feedback.
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  29. 02-13-18 02:01 PM #99
    littlekona
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    in the states the biggest long shots you see are normally under 50-1 stupid track tourists I call them always play long shots an bring price down....Arie should focus on the state tracks plenty of 30-1 shots that have no chance and in UK would be 200-1
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  30. 02-13-18 04:02 PM #100
    arie1985
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    Quote Originally Posted by littlekona View Post
    in the states the biggest long shots you see are normally under 50-1 stupid track tourists I call them always play long shots an bring price down....Arie should focus on the state tracks plenty of 30-1 shots that have no chance and in UK would be 200-1
    I tried to lay a huge underdog in the final race in Sam Houston but it's very difficult if you try to get it for a "cheap" price:




    I tried offering low odds and got very few matches.
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  31. 02-13-18 04:04 PM #101
    slayer14
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    Arie are there alot of people on that site you play at
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  32. 02-13-18 04:21 PM #102
    arie1985
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    Quote Originally Posted by slayer14 View Post
    Arie are there alot of people on that site you play at
    Yes, that's right.

    Moving on.
    I think I got a good deal on this race, the odds were 99 in TVG, then dropped to 10 on TV, and then went up to 67 in TV (in live TV through TVG). I managed to get a good bite from this one:




    Waiting for the race now, good luck!
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  33. 02-13-18 04:27 PM #103
    JBEX
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    look at "explaining the favorite longshot bias - caltech" ..basically there have been exhaustive studiesdone that prove as the odds drift very high the loss is very high...these long shots are way overvalued and they've combined multiple sample sets totaling over 5M races to prove it it's a pdf or would've included a link
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  34. 02-13-18 04:29 PM #104
    arie1985
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    Quote Originally Posted by arie1985 View Post
    Yes, that's right.

    Moving on.
    I think I got a good deal on this race, the odds were 99 in TVG, then dropped to 10 on TV, and then went up to 67 in TV (in live TV through TVG). I managed to get a good bite from this one:




    Waiting for the race now, good luck!
    Was the winner of this race an underdog with odds of 80? Can anyone please shed more light on this? I saw it with 15ish in TVG.

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  35. 02-13-18 04:30 PM #105
    arie1985
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    Quote Originally Posted by JBEX View Post
    look at "explaining the favorite longshot bias - caltech" ..basically there have been exhaustive studiesdone that prove as the odds drift very high the loss is very high...these long shots are way overvalued and they've combined multiple sample sets totaling over 5M races to prove it it's a pdf or would've included a link
    What does it mean in simple words?
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